1. Historically, the trend of RMB exchange rate is basically stable; Recently, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar fluctuated around 7. Historically, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar is at a relatively stable level with little fluctuation. Since 20 15, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has fluctuated greatly. At that time, due to the great changes in the external environment, the trend of the RMB also fluctuated greatly. Moreover, since the beginning of this year, due to the great changes in the external environment, China has strictly controlled foreign investment, so the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has been greatly impacted. However, according to the latest statistics, although the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has an obvious depreciation trend, it has remained basically stable. Therefore, it can be considered that there is no need for China to continue to suppress the RMB exchange rate.
Second, from a financial point of view, it is impossible for the RMB exchange rate to appreciate for a long time; RMB is a relative financial product. Like other currencies, it will appreciate with the development of economy. However, with the deepening of China's economic system reform, the development environment and external environment of the domestic financial market have changed greatly, and it is difficult for the RMB price to keep rising. At the same time, with the continuous improvement of the internationalization of RMB, the liquidity of RMB will also be greatly affected. Therefore, it is impossible for the RMB to maintain its appreciation trend for a long time. If RMB keeps appreciating for a long time, it will be unfavorable to China's domestic economic growth and financial market. From the international financial market, the US dollar index has been at a high level of around 100 for a long time, while the domestic stock market index has been at a high level of over 30. Moreover, due to the domestic economic slowdown and the influence of monetary policy, the domestic stock market has recently fallen into shock, which has caused a great impact on the domestic market.
Third, from the economic fundamentals of China, it is impossible to continue to tighten monetary policy. Against the background of slowing economic growth and sluggish external demand, it is imperative for the central bank to tighten monetary policy. This is also an important reason why the RMB will continue to depreciate. On the one hand, from the perspective of the fundamentals of the RMB, the downward pressure on the domestic economy has increased this year, the international market environment has become more complicated and changeable, external uncertainty has increased significantly, and economic growth has also been affected to some extent; On the other hand, due to the comprehensive influence of economic slowdown, high inflation, and increased pressure on international payments, the pressure of RMB depreciation against the US dollar has increased. From the central bank's point of view, RRR's interest rate cuts this year and RRR's multiple interest rate cuts will release a lot of liquidity. At the same time, it will continue to issue local government special bonds to support the financing needs of local economic development.