1, main properties and classification of caustic soda

The scientific name of caustic soda is sodium hydroxide (NaOH), commonly known as caustic soda and caustic soda. Strong corrosiveness, easy to dissolve in water (dissolving in water releases heat) to form an alkaline solution, easy to absorb water vapor in the air for deliquescence, and carbon dioxide is qualitatively changed. Caustic soda is the basic chemical raw material of national economy, and it is listed as one of "three acids and two alkalis" together with soda ash. According to the existing forms, caustic soda can be divided into two types: liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda, in which solid caustic soda is white, with lumps, flakes, rods and granules. Liquid alkali is a colorless and transparent liquid. According to the different mass fraction, liquid alkali can be divided into 30%, 32%, 45%, 48%, 49%, 50% and so on. At present, the mainstream specification of low-concentration caustic soda in China is 32% ionic membrane caustic soda, and the mainstream specification of high-concentration caustic soda is 50% liquid caustic soda. Solid alkali can be divided into 73%, 95%, 96%, 98.5%, 99%, 99.5% and so on. The domestic solid alkali market is mainly flake alkali. At present, liquid caustic soda accounts for more than 80% in the market, and the output of caustic soda with different specifications varies greatly among provinces and cities. Because solid caustic soda is easy to store and transport, its sales radius is larger than that of liquid caustic soda. In Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and other northwest regions, its cost is low, but the local downstream demand is limited, so more solid alkali is produced and sold at a long distance. Shandong and Jiangsu mainly produce liquid caustic soda, and there are many downstream enterprises in major cities, among which 32% caustic soda is the main one, followed by 50% caustic soda, and most of the solid caustic soda is imported from other places;

2. Caustic soda industry chain

Caustic soda is one of the main products produced by chlor-alkali enterprises. Its main raw materials are crude salt and electricity. The fluctuation range of raw salt price is limited, which has little influence on the price of caustic soda. Electricity price is relatively stable due to the macro-control of the country, which can basically be regarded as a fixed variable. The downstream of caustic soda is distributed in chemical industry, pulping and papermaking, printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, metallurgy, soap and detergent, environmental protection and other national economic industries. In the chemical field, caustic soda is one of the important raw materials for producing polycarbonate, epoxy resin, sodium phosphate, sodium sulfite and sodium salt. In the field of pulp and paper industry, caustic soda is used as an auxiliary agent to remove non-cellulose from paper, neutralize organic acids and improve paper quality. In the field of printing and dyeing and chemical fiber industry, caustic soda can be used as a water softener to improve the dye uptake and uniformity in printing and dyeing, and can also be used as a desizing agent to wash away inorganic impurities in cotton fibers. In the metallurgical field, caustic soda transforms the effective components in ore into soluble sodium salts to remove insoluble impurities (alumina is the main application field). In the field of washing, oil is generally saponified under the action of caustic soda to make soap. In the field of environmental protection, caustic soda is mainly used in water treatment industry to reduce the hardness of water and adjust the PH value through neutralization reaction.

3 caustic soda production process

The production of caustic soda is mainly electrolysis, and the main raw material is raw salt. Compared with causticization method, it has great advantages in supply stability and price. According to the structure of electrolytic cell and the difference between electrolytic materials and diaphragm materials, electrolytic methods can be divided into diaphragm method, mercury intrusion method and ion exchange membrane method. Mercury method was eliminated because of its great pollution to the environment. Diaphragm method has high energy consumption and low product quality, which has been basically eliminated in China. Ion exchange membrane technology is the mainstream production method in the world today. The production capacity of ion-exchange membrane technology accounts for 99.65% of the total production capacity in China market. Its technological process is mainly divided into six processes: rectification, brine refining, electrolysis, chlorine and hydrogen treatment, liquid alkali evaporation and solid alkali production.

Second, the caustic soda supply end

1, end of raw materials

1. 1 crude salt industry

China is rich in salt resources, and North China, East China and Central China are the main salt-producing areas. Among them, the main producing areas of sea salt are Shandong, Tianjin and Jiangsu; The main producing areas of lake salt are Qinghai and Inner Mongolia. The main producing areas of well salt are Jiangsu, Shandong, Hubei, Henan, Jiangxi and Sichuan and Chongqing. From 20 10 to 20 14, driven by the rapid growth of downstream demand for caustic soda and soda ash, the price of raw salt remained high and the output increased year by year; 20 15-20 16 was affected by supply-side structural reform and environmental protection supervision, the downstream demand of raw salt decreased, the price of raw salt continued to fall, and the output decreased; From 20 17 to 20 19, the prosperity of the downstream industry of raw salt increased, the price rebounded and the output increased; 2020-202 1 Stimulated by global public health events, the impact of imported salt weakened and the price of raw salt rose sharply, which stimulated the enthusiasm of raw salt enterprises and increased the output of raw salt.

1.2 electric power

Chlor-alkali production is a high energy-consuming industry, and the power consumption per ton of caustic soda production/kloc-0 is about 2230 ~ 2400 kW·h, accounting for about 60% of the total cost of caustic soda production. Therefore, electricity price is the most critical factor affecting the operating profit of caustic soda enterprises, and chlor-alkali production enterprises with their own power plants have comparative advantages in cost. In order to facilitate the comparative analysis of caustic soda production costs, metric electrochemical unit cost (ECU) is usually used for accounting. 1 electrochemical unit (ECU)= 1 caustic soda +0.886 chlorine.

The cost of chlor-alkali enterprises is closely related to the location. The cost of basic materials and labor in the eastern coastal areas is slightly higher than that in the inland areas, so the cost of environmental protection increases accordingly, and chlor-alkali projects are limited. The western region is rich in coal, raw salt, electricity, lime and other resources, as well as relatively cheap labor costs. There is a great cost advantage in developing chlor-alkali projects. The average cost of ECU in Inner Mongolia is about 700 cheaper than that in coastal areas. Therefore, in recent years, the focus of chlor-alkali capacity expansion in China has shifted to the northwest, mainly from Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Tianjin to Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia.

2. Capacity and output

Affected by the support of national policies and the sharp increase in demand, the capacity and output of caustic soda in China increased rapidly from 20 10 to 20 14, with an average annual growth rate of about 7%, with an average annual growth rate of1%.In 20 14, the national caustic soda capacity reached 39.2 million tons. This period belongs to the rapid development period of caustic soda industry. 20 15-2022, the overall growth rate of caustic soda production capacity in China slowed down, with an average annual growth rate of only 2.2%. Among them, the capacity and output of caustic soda showed negative growth at 20 15. On the one hand, chlor-alkali is seriously unbalanced, chlorine is easy to produce but difficult to sell, and the pace of increasing production in caustic soda industry slows down. On the other hand, with the supply-side structural reform and stricter environmental inspection, some non-compliant chlor-alkali enterprises passively quit, resulting in a part of production capacity loss. By the end of 2022, China's caustic soda production capacity was 45.54 million tons and the output was 39.47 million tons.

Domestic caustic soda production capacity and output distribution are basically the same, concentrated in North China, Northwest China and East China, accounting for 35%, 24% and 20% respectively. Production areas are related to demand and cost, such as alumina industry downstream of caustic soda in North China, textile printing and dyeing and papermaking industry downstream of caustic soda in East China, and the northwest is rich in raw salt, coal and other resources. In terms of provinces, Shandong has the largest production capacity, accounting for 26%, followed by Inner Mongolia and Jiangsu, and the total production capacity of caustic soda in the three provinces accounts for 43% of the national total production capacity.

There are more than 60 caustic soda production enterprises/kloc-0, and the concentration of production capacity is not high. At present, there are only four enterprises with production capacity above 1 10,000 tons, accounting for 2.4% of the enterprises and 10.4% of the production capacity. There are 20 production enterprises with a production capacity of 500-654.38+00,000 tons, accounting for 27.9% of the total production capacity, mainly concentrated in Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Tianjin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia and Henan. There are 37 production enterprises with a production capacity of 300,000-500,000 tons, with a total production capacity of/kloc-0.35 million tons, accounting for 29.4% of the total production capacity; The remaining production capacity is below 300,000 tons.

At present, enterprises tend to take the road of industry consolidation. As another product of chlor-alkali industry mentioned in the above industrial chain is liquid chlorine, which is dangerous and difficult to transport and store, most of them will be equipped with chlorine consumption devices, and some caustic soda enterprises will be equipped with downstream alkali consumption devices and self-provided power plant devices to reduce costs. At present, caustic soda enterprises have 127 chlorine downstream facilities, accounting for 77%; There are 32 supporting alkali facilities in the downstream, accounting for 20%; There are 78 production enterprises supporting their own power plants, accounting for 48%; There are 30 raw salt production enterprises, accounting for 18%.

Third, the demand side of caustic soda

China is a big producer and consumer of caustic soda. Since 20 10, the apparent demand for caustic soda in China has maintained rapid and steady growth. With 20 15 as the boundary, it can be divided into two stages: rapid growth period and stable growth period. From 20 10 to 20 14, the annual demand for caustic soda in China increased from 1934 1000 tons to 29.8 million tons, with an average annual growth rate exceeding 1 1.0%. 20 15 affected by the supply-side structural reform and environmental protection policies in the chemical industry, the caustic soda industry and some downstream industries all carried out supply-side structural adjustment, resulting in negative growth in caustic soda production and demand. From 20 16 to 202 1, the demand for caustic soda in China entered a period of steady growth. The annual demand has increased from 30.935 million tons to 37.484 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of about 4.7%. In 2022, exports increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in apparent consumption.

The downstream of caustic soda in China is mainly distributed in alumina, chemical industry, paper making, printing and dyeing chemical fiber, water treatment, light industry, medicine and other industries. In recent years, the industries with higher demand growth in the downstream of caustic soda mainly include alumina, chemical fiber and other industries, while the demand in printing and dyeing industry has shrunk due to the transformation and upgrading of some enterprises. From the distribution of downstream demand areas, the largest demand for caustic soda is in North China, accounting for 36%, followed by East China, accounting for 25%; In 2022, the proportion of alumina downstream of caustic soda will reach 35%, so the alumina industry plays an obvious role in driving the regional demand for caustic soda. For example, Shandong, Shanxi, Guangxi, Henan and Guizhou provinces are the provinces with concentrated alumina production. Printing and dyeing and chemical fiber (viscose) are the second largest demand industries for caustic soda, accounting for 2 1%, and the printing and dyeing and chemical fiber industries are mainly concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Jiangxi and Xinjiang. Pulping and papermaking downstream of caustic soda accounts for 13%. The pulp and paper industry is mainly concentrated in Guangdong, Shandong, Zhejiang and Guangxi, which account for about 65% of the total demand for caustic soda in the paper industry. In addition, the downstream chemical industry of caustic soda is mainly concentrated in Jiangsu, Shandong, Guangdong, Jiangxi, Hebei and other places, accounting for about 60% of the total demand of caustic soda in the chemical industry.

Four. Domestic caustic soda trade and import and export

The main producing areas of caustic soda in China are located in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, Jiangsu, Xinjiang and Zhejiang, and the main selling areas are located in Shandong, Shanxi, Jiangsu, Henan, Guangxi, Zhejiang, Hebei and Guangdong. Therefore, domestic trade mainly flows from west to east and from north to south, and the main net transfer areas include Inner Mongolia, Shandong, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Ningxia and Tianjin. The main net transfer areas are Shanxi, Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou. Among them, most of the solid alkali in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia flows to East China, South China, Southwest China and Central China through special trains. In addition to supplying alumina, papermaking and chemical enterprises in Shandong, most of the liquid alkali flows to neighboring provinces by steam transportation.

There are many modes of transportation of caustic soda, such as railway transportation, automobile transportation, water transportation and pipeline transportation. In the transportation of liquid alkali, it is mostly used for sales in the province and surrounding provinces, and the radius is generally within 300km. If it exceeds, it will be changed to water transport. The transportation radius of solid alkali is not limited, and the transportation mode is more diversified. Generally speaking, among the three common modes of transportation, the cost of waterway transportation is the lowest, followed by railway transportation, and the cost of automobile transportation is relatively high. The cost of automobile transportation within 300 kilometers of the province and surrounding provinces is 200 ~ 250 yuan/wet ton, and the cost of water transportation from Shandong to Guangdong fluctuates between 230 ~ 320 yuan/wet ton according to the size of the ship.

China is a net exporter of caustic soda. In 2022, China exported about 3.247 million tons of caustic soda, imported about 0.89 million tons, and its net export was close to 3.24 million tons. Except in 2022, the export and import of caustic soda in China account for a small proportion of the total consumption. From 20 10 to 20 17, China's caustic soda imports basically remained at the level of 10,000 tons. In 20 18, the import of caustic soda in China increased sharply, mainly because the domestic price of caustic soda rose obviously, and foreign low-priced caustic soda took advantage of the trend. In 2022, it began to be exported, and the import volume dropped sharply. China's solid alkali imports are relatively stable, the main source country is Japan, and the rest are Poland and Thailand.

During the period of 20 10-202 1, the export volume of caustic soda in China was about1.5000 tons. In 2022, due to the domestic price advantage, the export volume increased significantly. Judging from the types of export products, the annual export volume of solid alkali is relatively stable, basically fluctuating between 400,000-700,000 tons. Therefore, the fluctuation of liquid alkali export volume is the main factor affecting the change of total liquid alkali export volume. Among the caustic soda exporters in China, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, South Asia and Africa are the main destinations for solid caustic soda, while Australia, China, Taiwan Province Province, Viet Nam, India, the United States and Southeast Asian countries are the main destinations for liquid caustic soda. China's long-term solid alkali exporters mainly include Xinjiang Zhongtai, Xinjiang Tianye, Shandong Huabin and Inner Mongolia Zheng Jun, which are close to exporting countries and have convenient logistics in Xinjiang and Shandong. Long-term liquid alkali exporters include Shanghai chlor-alkali, Xinpu Chemical, Shuangshi Chemical (Zhangjiagang), Wanhua Chemical (Ningbo), Tianjin Otani, etc. Because the domestic caustic soda market is well supplied, it can better meet the domestic market demand, so the annual import of caustic soda is very small, and the status of a net exporter of caustic soda in the future will not change in the short term.

Verb (abbreviation of verb) global supply and demand of caustic soda

From 20 1 1 to 202 1, the global caustic soda production capacity increased from 82.6 million tons to 99.74 million tons, with a compound annual growth rate of 2%. The global production of caustic soda increased from 64.43 million tons to 79.5 million tons. From the production process, the ion exchange membrane process accounts for about 83%; Diaphragm technology accounts for about14%; In the global caustic soda market, Asian production capacity accounts for 63%, followed by North America and Europe, accounting for 16% and14% respectively; In 20021year, the global caustic soda market demand was 82 million tons, mainly in Asia, Europe and North America, accounting for 58%, 13% and 1 1% of the global total demand respectively.

Due to the imbalance between supply and demand of caustic soda and the existence of price difference, the international trade of liquid caustic soda and solid caustic soda is more active. In 20021year, the global trade volume of caustic soda was about16.94 million tons, of which liquid caustic soda was about15.3 million tons and solid caustic soda was about1640,000 tons. The main sources of global caustic soda outflow are the United States, Northeast Asia, Western Europe and the Middle East, and the main destinations are South America, Oceania, Canada, Europe, Southeast Asia and Africa. In the future, the United States, China, the Netherlands and Belgium will remain the most important exporters, and the growth of caustic soda production capacity will mainly occur in the United States and Europe. Southeast Asia, Africa and South America are areas where the demand for caustic soda will increase rapidly in the future.

The history and future development of domestic caustic soda industry

Judging from the market in recent 10 years, caustic soda has experienced two rounds of ups and downs, which are mainly divided into the following stages:

In the third quarter of 20 12-in the first half of 2065438+06, caustic soda dropped: the production capacity of caustic soda industry expanded rapidly, and the supply and demand were unbalanced. Downstream alumina, printing and dyeing, chemical fiber, chemical industry and other industries are exhausted, especially alumina, on the one hand, due to its own downturn, there has been a large-scale production reduction; On the other hand, the export of bauxite in Indonesia is limited, which leads to insufficient domestic alumina operating rate and obvious reduction in the net demand for caustic soda.

In the second half of 2007, caustic soda rose by 2016-201:affected by supply-side reform and environmental protection policies, chlor-alkali plants with poor profitability and sustained losses began to withdraw, involving caustic soda production capacity of10.35 million tons, and the supply decreased significantly, which stimulated the price increase of caustic soda to some extent.

20 17, 1 1-202 1, caustic soda fell: the direct impact of environmental protection on chlor-alkali enterprises gradually weakened, and the average start-up of chlor-alkali in China continued at about 85%. Environmental protection supervision of downstream alumina industry leads to limited start-up of bauxite; The export of printing and dyeing, viscose fiber and other industries is blocked due to Sino-US trade disputes; At the beginning of 2020, influenced by global public health events, the demand for caustic soda was once low. Because many downstream industries are underemployed and have poor profitability, the demand for caustic soda has begun to shrink, the market structure has changed from short supply to oversupply, and the price of caustic soda has dropped sharply.

February 20265438 +0-end 20265438+0: Macroeconomic development and various unexpected factors affect the development of caustic soda. In the first half of the year, due to the cold wave in the United States, the high price of raw material industrial salt, the peak emission of carbon dioxide in China and carbon neutrality, the start-up of caustic soda enterprises was obviously limited. In the second half of the year, under the influence of the strengthening of "double control" and the adjustment of power policy, the price of supporting caustic soda rose sharply to a high level in the past decade. However, due to the restriction of thermal coal, the price went down at the end of 20021.

Since the beginning of 2022, the price of chlor-alkali industry has maintained a high level. At the beginning of 2022, thanks to the downstream recovery and the support of raw salt prices, caustic soda rose again. However, the outbreak of the Shanghai epidemic in April 2022 and the expectation of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike in June led to a drop in commodity prices, and the traditional demand season rebounded in September. However, with the increase of supply in the traditional peak season, prices have fallen again. Focus on demand-side recovery in 2023.

In the long run, chlor-alkali industry has the characteristics of high energy consumption, great environmental impact and high investment cost. Although China's current production technology has reached the advanced level in the world, its production cost is still higher than that in the Middle East and North America. In the future, the chlor-alkali industry in China will mainly develop in the following aspects:

(1) The sustainable development policy has become stricter. It is embodied in specific industrial policies such as energy conservation and emission reduction, environmental protection policies, etc., standardizing and restricting the development of high-energy-consuming industries, and canceling preferential electricity price policies to achieve differential electricity prices and industry access. It is difficult to greatly improve the total production capacity in the next few years.

(2) Improve the entry threshold for enterprises. The threshold for the new ion-exchange membrane caustic soda plant in China is 300,000 tons, and the industrial concentration is constantly developing.

(3) Optimize raw materials and technical routes to promote product structure adjustment. By increasing the research and development of clean technology and transforming the traditional production process of chlorine products, we will continue to develop high value-added and differentiated products that consume alkali, chlorine and hydrogen, and further broaden the application fields of products.