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Oil Truth: Who has the pricing power of international oil price?
This was said by former US Secretary of State Henry Kissinger. William Endor, the author of "The Oil War", pointed out sharply in the preface of the Chinese version of the book that the book summed up the American power philosophy, at least the power philosophy of a few elites who decided American foreign and domestic policies behind the scenes. Coincidentally, Tong Yuan Chun, the author of The Truth about Oil, also put this sentence of Kissinger in the preface of his book, and said that after Kissinger entered the international oil industry from 65438 to 0990, this famous saying from the 1970s was deeply imprinted in his mind. The author's thinking and understanding of this sentence runs through the truth of oil, and combined with his years of work experience, he has realized a truth: the core interest structure of the modern human world is supported by the current international political system, while the core issue of international politics is economy, the core issue of economy is finance, the core issue of finance is resources, and the core issue of resources is energy. The core issue of energy has historically chosen oil, and human beings both hate and love oil. Once the risk of the above problems is out of control, the price paid by human beings is blood except money, especially in the oil industry. The idea of "oil truth" and the logic of "oil war" seem to have the same effect, both of which touch on the absolute control of oil, that is, the driving force of the hegemonic world. However, the book Oil War pays more attention to the political, military and diplomatic games, sorting out a vein of the international political and economic structure dominated by oil from the twists and turns between countries, while The Truth of Oil guides readers to examine the overall development of the oil industry from a professional perspective, focusing on the deep-seated reasons behind the sharp rise and fall of international oil prices, so that readers are no longer confused by the superficial and general news in newspapers. A new cognitive tool is needed to interpret oil price. The book "The Truth of Oil" puts forward a new cognitive tool-"Six Elements Theory of Oil Resources". Looking at oil resources from all angles with all-round observation and eagle-like observation provides a forward-looking, innovative, practical and constructive theoretical basis and cognitive tool for interpreting the real reasons for the rise and fall of oil prices. According to the author's induction, the six elements of petroleum resources first include resource elements, production and processing elements and service elements, which constitute the traditional upstream, middle and downstream links in the petroleum industry, and then cover the three major elements of commerce, logistics and finance. Many people only focus on the first three elements and think that all oil-related problems can be answered from these three links, so they make a one-sided interpretation and prediction of oil prices. Exploring the real reason of oil price fluctuation is inseparable from the understanding and analysis of the latter three elements. Applying the theory of six elements of petroleum resources to practice, we will find the deep-seated reasons that lead to the sharp fluctuation of oil prices. In the author's view, resource elements are the source of the world. It should be noted that human understanding of the earth's oil resources is still very low. Although this resource is limited, with the improvement of exploration ability, mining ability and refining ability, and the rise of global energy-saving movement, it should not be a problem for oil to meet human needs in the next few hundred years or even longer. In addition, the production and processing elements are the sub-basic links to realize the oil value (the basic link is the exploration and exploitation of resources), the service elements are the guarantee to realize the cash value of oil, the commercial elements are the impulse source of arbitrage, and the logistics elements are the channels to realize the value. Financial elements make oil surpass its own use value, and international speculators realize arbitrage through games, which can be said to be the jewel in the crown. Looking back at the whole history of oil price growth, we can see that the factor of price fluctuation is actually the factor of financial arbitrage. According to statistics, in the first half of 2008, the virtual trading volume of the international oil financial futures market was 8 to 9 times that of the real trading volume (the normal range should be less than 3 times), and financial arbitrage has separated the price law from the original supply and demand relationship. Who has the pricing power of international oil price? Who has the final say in international oil prices? This problem has been puzzling the world. Is it a resource supplier represented by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries? Is it a big oil consumer in the world? Can you master the pricing power with money in your hand? The answer is none. The oil truth puts forward the concept of "super economic system". People usually call the United States a superpower, but the status of a superpower is based on a super economy. The support of this super economic system for oil price pricing is embodied in the following five aspects: first, the international financial credit system, second, the payment and settlement system, third, the pricing and measurement system, fourth, the quality management system, and fifth, the cultural guidance mechanism under the protection of international law. The United States is in a leading position in these five aspects, which largely leads to the international oil market being driven and served by American interests. In fact, the dominant position of the US dollar in the world after World War II, especially the agreement reached between the United States and the Middle East oil-producing countries in 1973, determines that the United States has a unique voice in oil pricing power. It is worth noting that the first four aspects have certain standards and some hard and fast rules, forcing groups or countries that have no dominant power to yield, but it is also easy to cause dissatisfaction and opposition from the international community. What is more profound and effective is the American culture sweeping the world. Through American consumer culture, global consumers are encouraged to participate in all oil-related consumption activities (the most obvious is American automobile culture, such as diapers and bottled water), forcing the world to be inseparable from oil, which is also inseparable from the closely linked US dollar. From this perspective, learning to say "no" to American consumer culture is fundamentally beneficial for other countries to strive for oil pricing power. About the author Tong: The pen name Tsinghua urchin. Practical international resource scholar. 1985 graduated from Tsinghua University, 1990 joined Enron, 1995 joined PVM oil brokerage group, and 1996 has been engaged in international resources research, management, trade, investment and consulting for a long time. He is currently the managing director of Hong Kong Lianzhong Co., Ltd. and has more than 20 years of experience in international business development and oil and other resources development. Advocate innovative, forward-looking, practical and constructive theoretical research in the field of resources The Truth about Oil, China Economic Publishing House, 2009.