Water is released to raise fish, but the flooded water is not enough and the economic structure is under pressure. At present, although China's epidemic prevention and control has shown a good trend, the impact of the epidemic on the economy will be further reflected. Entertainment activities are still relatively limited, and consumer confidence is bound to be affected. From the foreign trade export industry to the domestic service industry, the pressure faced by the industrial chain will first increase on the debt side-the default of entity enterprises, bad debts of banks and employment pressure. From the perspective of risk prevention, the two sessions proposed to shift from "six stabilities" to "six guarantees", that is, taking the economic downturn as a policy hedge.
Stay green and win the future, and wealth will be redistributed. Judging from the historical data, the epidemic has a certain impact on the private sector, and the private sector will face further structural changes of deleveraging and destocking under the background of 20 19 cycle. On the one hand, retain market players through the policy of "bailing out and stimulating market vitality"; On the other hand, the policy is adjusting the economic structure countercyclically through "marketization". Generally speaking, under the background of economic downturn, industry has two main influences: 1. It promotes the rise of industrial concentration; 2. It has created a pattern that the industry is strong and strong, which undoubtedly has a direct impact on SMEs. Under the idea of "guarantee", it will inevitably bring about the redistribution of benefits to the head enterprises, including removing unreasonable rules and regulations, thus forming the transfer of leverage.
The game between China and America in science, technology and finance is accelerating. China and the United States have escalated from trade wars in the past to technological and financial wars. At present, there is still a gap in strength between China and the United States, the global currency status of the US dollar is still stable, and funds are under pressure to flow out of the China market.
First of all, the continuous deterioration of external demand will directly lead to the reversal of the domestic trade surplus, bring about a decline in foreign exchange holdings under the current account, and put pressure on the RMB base currency. The pressure of China's export will be long-term, which will bring long-term pressure to the liquidity creation of RMB base currency, and the liquidity generation mechanism will face long-term changes.
Secondly, the game between China and the United States has been upgraded from a trade war to a financial war and a scientific and technological war, which will have indirect pressure on capital outflows under capital. All these indicate that the mechanism of RMB liquidity needs to be changed in the future.
Under the long-term challenge, it is expected that the indirect regulation of foreign exchange holdings will further shift to open market operation and direct operation of asset purchase. Before 2000, the balance sheet of the central bank was less than 4 trillion yuan, and the growth was relatively stable. Foreign exchange account and creditor's rights to other deposit companies are the two subjects with the highest proportion of assets, and foreign exchange account and refinancing rediscount have become the main tools for money delivery. From 2000 to 20 14, China's economy developed rapidly and foreign exchange assets increased sharply. Especially after China's entry into WTO in 2002, influenced by the dividend of trade globalization and the advantages of its own production factors, the net export volume continued to rise, and foreign exchange became the most important way to put money. By the end of 20 14, the balance sheet of the central bank has expanded to 33 trillion yuan, of which foreign exchange accounts for about 80%, while the second largest asset accounts for less than 10% of the claims of other deposit-taking companies. After 20 14, as the global economy slows down, external demand decreases and trade friction intensifies, the cost of traditional factors in China loses, the marginal cost of supply increases and competitiveness declines. The proportion of foreign exchange is gradually decreasing. In March 2020, foreign exchange accounted for about 58% of the total assets of the central bank.
Foreign exchange is the indirect control subject of the central bank, which is mainly influenced by the total export volume and trade situation of enterprises and less controlled by the central bank. The creditor's rights of other deposit companies are directly supervised by the central bank and mainly controlled by different monetary policy tools. Therefore, in 2000, the central bank's monetary policy means changed from direct regulation to indirect regulation, and in the process of returning to direct regulation in 20 15, the debt structure of the central bank also changed greatly. At present, the growth of foreign exchange holdings is slow, the proportion of deposits of other deposit companies is slightly weakened, and the proportion of cash in circulation is gradually increasing, reflecting the change of the central bank from indirect regulation to direct regulation.
In the long run, we believe that China's currency issuance mechanism is brewing a transition from "foreign exchange anchoring" to "debt anchoring". Under the background of de-globalization, China's export development will continue to be sluggish due to the influence of the epidemic black swan and the decline of China's export factor advantage. Therefore, the creation of the base currency through the increment of foreign exchange holdings will gradually decrease, while the issuance of the base currency through the purchase of government bonds, government bonds and financial bonds will become the mainstream. The risk of this mechanism change is that this change requires the establishment of RMB credit. On the one hand, further improve the return on private sector assets through factor marketization reform; On the other hand, in the global anti-epidemic process, the credit environment of RMB is improved by providing "public goods".
This article is from Futures Daily.