pig
In February, after the Spring Festival, the inertia of domestic consumer demand declined. Although students return to school, the group demand has improved slightly, but the demand for pork has increased slightly, the supply is strong and the demand is weak, so it is difficult to raise the average ex-factory price of pigs in slaughterhouses. According to official news, on February 6/kloc-0, the average ex-factory price of pigs in designated slaughterhouses nationwide was 18.79 yuan/kg, and the price of pigs rose. The average price of live pigs in China is 14.8 yuan/kg, and the price difference between raw and white pigs in slaughterhouses is only about 4 yuan/kg. The price difference between wool and white in slaughterhouses has been greatly reduced, and the pressure of slaughter loss has increased sharply. According to institutional research, the profit of slaughter enterprises in the sample slaughterhouse is maintained at -35.25 yuan/head. Therefore, the feeling of price reduction in slaughterhouses has become stronger!
Previously, the price of live pigs was weak, and the downstream supply of slaughterhouses was not smooth. Some slaughterhouses became more enthusiastic about dividing and storing, and the operating rate also hovered around 27%. However, with the increase in the price of live pigs, the storage cost of standard pigs at the bottom of the market, which is equivalent to frozen products, has further increased, and the cost of frozen products is roughly 8.5~9 yuan/kg. Therefore, the slaughterhouse's enthusiasm for warehouse separation has become worse, and the pig price has dropped again and again.
Therefore, the pig price has been hit by the depressed mood in the slaughterhouse. At present, there have been two consecutive declines in the market. According to the analysis of institutional data, on February 17, the price of foreign ternary live pigs fell to 14.78 yuan/kg, down 0.03 yuan/kg from yesterday, and the fluctuation of pig prices was weak. In the domestic market, pig prices show a narrow and weak trend!
Trend of hog price
Among them, the price of pigs in 7 pig producing areas and 28 key monitoring areas in China showed a performance of "3 rise 10 drop 15 level". The price of pigs in many places in the north and south went down, among which the decline remained at 0.05~0.4 yuan/kg, while the increase in Shanxi, Jilin and Gansu was only 0. 1~0. 15 yuan/kg!
At present, in the northeast market, the price quoted by slaughter enterprises is 14.6~ 14.9 yuan/kg, while in the high-priced markets of Guangdong and Guangxi, the price quoted by slaughter enterprises is 14.5~ 15.3 yuan/kg. Sichuan and Chongqing market pig price 15.05~ 15.2 yuan, Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets 15. 1~ 15.4 yuan/kg!
The fluctuation of pig price is weak, the market is in a quagmire, and the performance of staged ups and downs is more prominent! On the one hand, slaughterhouses have a strong feeling of depressing prices; On the other hand, the price sentiment at the breeding end is high, the pace of retail investors and large manufacturers is slow and overlapping, and there is still a phenomenon of secondary fattening in the market. The supply of pigs has shrunk as a whole, and it is difficult for slaughterhouses to collect pigs! Therefore, under the long-short game, the slaughterhouse's price reduction performance is not as good as expected, and the pig price is mainly weak and stable!
However, the prospect of pig price is still not optimistic, so we should be alert to the risk of retaliatory decline in the market outlook!
At present, the domestic pig market and consumption end lack the basis for substantial improvement in a short period of time. Therefore, it is more difficult for slaughterhouses to deliver white bars, and it is difficult for terminal white bars to rebound. Slaughtering enterprises have low spreads, and the sentiment of price reduction is still high! In the supply of live pigs, although the market pressure is high in the short term, there is still a risk of out-of-stock in the market!
The price of pigs has fallen.
Now in the first half of February, the market is bullish, reluctant to sell pigs, and the pace of pig slaughter is slowing down. However, there are still many group pig enterprises planning to slaughter pigs this month. Judging from many pig farms monitored by institutional samples, this month's pig slaughter plan increased by about 4.8%, while in the first half of the year, the pig slaughter pace of group pig enterprises was slow, and there may be slaughter risks in the middle and late stages of the market! This may lead to pigs being slaughtered and trampled in a short time. At this stage, the slaughter of big pigs is not complete, the loss of big pigs will increase, and the price of pigs may fall in retaliation!