A.E. Natalenko, Deputy Minister of Natural Resources of the Russian Federation, believes that abolishing the departmental management system of the mining industry will promote the bankruptcy and closure of those lifeless single enterprises. Due to the cancellation of the profit redistribution mechanism between profit-making mining areas and loss-making mining areas, the geographical distribution of mineral raw material bases and their processing enterprises will be affected, and the raw material bases will be relatively reduced (according to experts' estimation, for most minerals, the conditionally profitable reserves only account for about 50% of the proven reserves). In this case, we must see the following points:
Ultra-large oil, natural gas, placer gold and non-ferrous metal mining areas have all experienced a decline in mining volume; According to the exploitation degree of proven reserves, some main oil-producing areas are: 70% ~ 80% in the North Caucasus; 50% ~ 70% in Ural-Bavarian Japan; Western Siberia 44%;
The mining conditions deteriorate, the mining depth increases and the mine roadway is prolonged;
The oil recovery rate decreased (from 26 tons/day in 1980s to 8 ~ 10 tons/day at the end of 2000), and the formation pressure decreased.
According to Russia's energy strategy and the indicators of profitable mining in other mineral raw material bases, the Ministry of Natural Resources has completed the prediction of mining level and reached the conclusion that the problem is quite serious. Experts believe that by 20 10, 50% of the proven reserves of petroleum, bauxite, gold, tin, silver, phosphate, lead and chromium resources will be exhausted (accounting for 50% of the total profitable exploitation of these minerals), while the proven reserves of tungsten, zinc and copper will be exhausted by 20 15; By 2020, it will be natural gas.
The problem now is how to develop and utilize the remaining 50% unprofitable reserves at an acceptable cost. This is still a considerable resource advantage in Russia, and its total resources are estimated to be 82 billion tons of oil, 220 trillion cubic meters of natural gas and 654.38+0.2 billion tons of cold oil. Undoubtedly, compared with the reserves being mined, the industrial development of these reserves is more difficult, the technology is more complicated and the economic benefits are worse. In order to explore and find out these reserves, draw boundaries and prepare for development, both the state and mining companies need to invest more money.
In the last decade of the 20th century, the proven reserves, output and demand of world mineral resources showed a steady growth trend. But in this context, Russia presents the opposite dynamic process. The output of petroleum and coal decreased by more than one third, natural gas decreased by 9%, iron ore decreased by 20%, steel decreased by 45%, nickel, copper, titanium, tungsten and molybdenum decreased by 1 1% ~ 63% respectively, and rare earth metals decreased by more than 90%. The domestic demand for mineral resources has decreased even more (energy demand has decreased 17% ~ 58%, and the demand for non-ferrous metals and rare metals has decreased 10 times). In recent 10 years, some mineral resources have been traded in the form of barter and futures, and the provisions of the underground resources law on the payment of compensation for reproduction of mineral raw materials bases have not been strictly enforced. At one time, problems such as new reserves, output of old mining areas and new strategic mineral development were out of control. The new reserves of petroleum, natural gas, iron ore, bauxite, copper, nickel, gold, rare earth elements, lead, zinc and molybdenum can not meet the simple reproduction of these minerals by the mining industry. 1994 From 2000 to 2000, the cumulative increase in oil reserves was 698 million tons, and the loss of natural gas was 2.3 trillion cubic meters. It must be pointed out that Russia has not developed any new oil and gas areas in the past 30 years, which is the first time in history.
In the field of mineral resources, the current situation is that the resolution No.33 14- 1 issued by the Supreme Council of the Russian Federation on July 5, 1992 has not been strictly implemented, and the bidding activities for mining rights are basically used free of charge, especially the state-owned enterprises occupy the high-grade part of the mineral raw material base, and then these enterprises are privatized in large numbers.
The license agreement signed during this period has poor legal effect, the national mineral resources management department is under great pressure from vertical companies, and the relevant laws and regulations are outdated, which makes it impossible to effectively solve the major problems of safeguarding the interests of the country in the field of mineral resources. Because of this, in the past nine years, no executive agency of the federal government has been able to hand over the established mineral raw material base to the state, and more than 85% of the proven reserves of major Russian oil companies have passed the international audit (showing how serious the resource loss is). It can be safely asserted that the natural potential of Russian mineral raw materials is disappearing, and this natural potential is difficult to make up for the traditional shortcomings of mineral raw materials departments in production organization, technology, technological level, taxation legal system and so on. These shortcomings are mainly manifested in the low labor productivity, high level of energy consumption and resource consumption in mining and mineral products processing industries, and the production cost of mineral products cannot be reduced. For example, the annual output of gold mining industry in Russia is 1.6kg/ person (only two enterprises reach 12 ~ 14kg/ person), while the world level is 15 ~ 23kg/ person. There is a big gap in the field of oil and gas exploration, with the recovery ratio of 35% in the United States and 25% in Russia. The annual output of a single post in the oil exploration and oil processing departments in the United States is 1.2 million tons, and that in Russia is 7 million ~1.0 million tons.
Experts predict that the global demand for mineral resources will continue to grow in 2 1 century, and the total mining volume will increase five times in the first half century. Under the premise that the world mineral raw material resources will be increasingly scarce, western countries put forward and actively promoted the concept of globalization of mineral raw material bases. Ensuring the stability of raw materials needed for national economic development has long attracted the attention of the central government and relevant diplomatic and exploration institutions. It must be seen objectively that on the one hand, China is facing many major social and economic problems, on the other hand, it has been blindly promoting inexhaustible underground resources for a long time, and has not paid due attention to the issue of mineral raw material bases. Therefore, we lack careful strategic consideration on the mineral resources potential and its application in Russia, mainly in how to better adapt to globalization, geopolitics and geopolitical situation, how to ensure the balance between the country's resource development and reserve base, and how to ensure domestic economic development and national defense needs.
It is a highly intelligent and knowledge-intensive undertaking to discover new mining areas, find large mineral deposits and safeguard the national interests of Russian mineral raw material bases in global geopolitics and geopolitics. The main cost of geological exploration (about 60% ~ 70%) will be spent in this area. First of all, the geological department of mining enterprises should and can undertake this task. In addition, the national geological authorities should safeguard China's resource advantages and raw material supply, and safeguard its own interests and geopolitical interests. Our prospects in this regard are not optimistic. In fact, the reserve strength of professional geologists in China is insufficient, and the large-scale mineral raw material reserve base at the national level is also insufficient. The intellectual advantages of scientific research institutions and production units have faced a great crisis, the romantic atmosphere that attracts young people to join the geological cause has been lost, and the social status of geological work has dropped sharply.
Many special instructions issued by the state have largely become a mere formality. The work of paying the compensation for reproduction of mineral raw material bases stipulated in the formulated national budget policy has not been implemented. Because the country does not attach importance to the development of mineral raw materials department, the budget allocation for geological exploration is reduced to the lowest level, which not only makes the reproduction of mineral raw materials base unsustainable, but also eventually leads to the paralysis of the national geological department, which is the leader of geological work in the country and mining enterprises. Obviously, it may take 15 ~ 20 years to fully apply the western model to Russia on this issue.
Here, I would like to remind you that some industrialized countries have controlled some raw material bases of the Commonwealth of Independent States developed during the former Soviet Union, as well as mineral areas in Southeast Asia and Africa once discovered by Soviet experts. These countries have long established multinational companies, and have channels for private investment in geological exploration and attracting foreign investment, and the investment intensity will generally exceed that of China companies. There is a problem of interest balance between multinational companies and countries: the country will "clear the way" for mineral raw material bases, and the company will exploit mineral resources and ensure that the required amount of raw materials are imported to domestic users. In this way, the main task of geological departments in these countries (first of all, the United States) is to analyze and summarize the information of world mineral raw material bases, track the situation of these raw material bases and predict their development prospects, whether they can become global mineral raw material bases in the future, and formulate national policies in the field of raw materials. It will be several years before this model can be accepted by Russia.
The problem of mineral raw materials is not only the present, but also the foundation of Russian social and economic development in the future. Guarantee 60% ~ 70% of monetary income and main budget income. The value of raw materials extracted from underground every year is about 95 ~10.5 billion USD when converted into international price. By 2005, the total amount of funds invested in mineral raw materials will not be less than $654.38+000 billion. If the potential of the mineral raw material base cannot be brought into full play, the socio-economic development index predicted by Russia to 20 10 will not be realized. The author has pointed out many times that China's mistake in the development of mineral raw materials lies in the loss of the main line of mineral resources work during the so-called reform period-in order to ensure the long-term development of the national economy, it is necessary to develop mineral raw material bases in advance (including increasing reserves, of course).