There are three main reasons for this market decline. First, the macro economy shows signs of deterioration, and fundamental data, such as PMI, RMB exchange rate and capital account, are deteriorating, and the interest-bearing debt ratio /GDP is rising rapidly; Second, the market expectation of RRR reduction in New Year's Day holiday failed; Third, the technical side is not optimistic. 20 15438+065438 Since10.5, the market has been shrinking, and quantity and energy are the leading indicators of prices, indicating that the market is in an adjustment cycle.
The opening limit and fuse mechanism of stock index futures amplify market volatility. For example, there were ten escape doors in the market. When the market falls, absolute income products and leveraged products need to escape, and the escape route is smooth, and generally there will be no trampling. The opening restriction of stock index futures makes it impossible for investors with a large number of long positions to hedge their risks in the futures market and can only passively sell the spot. The fuse mechanism artificially hindered the clearing of the market and aggravated the market panic. This is like ten escape doors, the opening limit of stock index futures has been closed for five, and the fuse mechanism has been closed for four, leaving only one, and the result is trampling. If we don't respect the laws of the market, reduce market distortions and improve relevant systems, stampede events (ups and downs) may occur from time to time in the future.
Second, the outlook for the market outlook
At present, the downward trend of A-share market band has been established. Due to the fuse mechanism, the funds that need to be sold cannot be sold, which is a short-selling force (if it can be sold and realized, it will become a potential long-term force), so the recent market outlook is not very optimistic. From August 26th, 20 15 to August 26th, 201517, the rising funds lasted for 52 days. It is estimated that it will take about the same time to clean up the hot money and run out of short-selling energy.
From the macro-economic point of view, this year is a weakly balanced city. From the perspective of funds, 65438+ is the buying point around the end of 10, and the next month to April is usually the net inflow period of funds.
Third, some suggestions.
The first is to further curb all kinds of leveraged funds. Leveraged funds have the inherent requirement of chasing up and down, which amplifies market volatility and deviates from the principles of value investment, long-term investment and supporting real economy investment.
The second is to restore the normal opening volume of stock index futures. Stock index futures do not determine the stock index, but they can increase market hedging tools, expand the depth of the capital market, and guide the speculative forces in the spot market to chase up and down, which will help stabilize the capital market.
The third is to cancel the fuse mechanism. The volatility of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is about four times that of the Dow Jones index. The 7% fuse line of the Dow corresponds to the 28% fuse line of the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index, while A shares have ups and downs, and it is impossible to go up and down by 28% in one day. Therefore, A shares do not need to set a fuse. At present, compared with the fuse set in the US stock market, it only artificially hinders the clearing of the market, exacerbates market volatility, and skyrockets.
Fourth, it is not appropriate to artificially maintain the stock price index and create a bubble. The long-term average yield of the stock market is linked to the nominal GDP growth rate, and the skyrocketing will inevitably lead to a plunge. Suppressing the skyrocketing will inevitably reduce the plunge, and ultimately achieve the result of slow cattle, which is conducive to long-term investment and value investment, and supports investment in the real economy. The government needs to concentrate on doing a good job in the real economy and maintaining a fair, just and efficient market order, instead of constantly introducing policies to support the market, distorting the market and interfering with its normal operation (such as the fuse mechanism)