About looking at the stability of returns from the position size

Different people have different views on stock skills, and everyone has different understanding of the stock market, skills, methods and knowledge. . In fact, illustrations of stock market reading skills are crucial. If you don’t know how to read the market, you can easily fall into loss. Here I would like to share with you some stock market positions for your reference.

Looking at the stability of the expected return value from the perspective of position size

First, let’s do a simple traditional coin-tossing gambling experiment to illustrate that the position size affects the stability of the expected return value.

Assume that the probability of the coin being heads is 55% and tails is 45%, then

1. If you bet 1 yuan each time, the expected return value each time = 55%1-45 %1=0.1 yuan. In this way, you can earn an average of 1 yuan by placing 10 bets.

2. If you place a bet of 0.1 yuan each time, the expected return value each time = 0.01 yuan. In this way, you will need to place 100 bets to get an average of 1 yuan.

3. If you place a bet of 0.01 yuan each time, the expected return value each time = 0.001 yuan. In this way, it will take 1,000 bets to earn an average of 1 yuan.

Although all three situations can earn 1 yuan, the risk levels of these three situations are completely different. Someone has done a probability statistics, and the results are as follows:

Profit range (yuan) 10 times, 100 times, 1000 times

-10 to -80.45%0.00%0.00%< /p>

-8 to-62.29%0.00%0.00%

-6 to-47.46%0.00%0.00%

-4 to-215.96%0.18%0.00%

-2 to 023.40%18.09%0.08%

0 to 223.84%68.30%99.85%

2 to 416.65%13.35%0.06%

4 to 67.63%0.07%0.00%

6 to 82.07%0.00%0.00%

8 to 100.25%0.00%0.00%

I put The above probability distribution data generates a chart that clearly shows the safety of small position bets. In the same way, playing stocks or futures with a small position in the direction of the market will always yield profits in the long run, and the risk is relatively small.

Please take out your calculator and calculate the total winning rate and total odds in these three situations.

10 times 100 times 1000 times

Total winning rate 50.5% 82% 99.92%

Total odds 49.5% 18% 0.08%

Total odds = the sum of all losing probabilities

We can see that when the success rate is 55%, after 10 wins In the case of 1 yuan, the total probability of success is 50.5%, and the risk is considerable. When winning 1 yuan 100 times, the total probability of success is 82%. This situation can still be speculated. When you win 1 yuan 1,000 times, the success probability is as high as 99.92%, which can fully guarantee long-term profits.

If you exchange 1 yuan for 10,000 yuan, in a market with the same success rate of 55% profit level, a large position can earn 10,000 yuan in a shorter period of time, while a small position can earn 10,000 yuan. It will take a longer time to earn 10,000 yuan. Impatient people are accustomed to rushing in and out of full positions when there are no big opportunities, and the risk will increase significantly. If you buy slowly and calmly when the opportunity comes, you can gradually add positions in a pyramid when the market is right, and liquidate or reduce the position in time when the market is wrong. This will not only reduce the risk, but also ensure a stable and appropriate position. Profit, this is the best and most common trading strategy.

The advantage of this experiment is that it isolates some other complex factors and only considers the impact of position factors on the stability of returns. In fact, if you do it right, try to hold on to the positive pyramid and gradually increase your position; if you do it wrong, you can close or reduce your position as soon as possible, and the probability of profit will be greatly increased. In addition, other strategies for fund management can also significantly increase returns and reduce risks.

The method of exchanging time for stability of income should be a consciousness of professional speculators. According to the objective situation of the market, you should decide whether to control the light position or strike hard. This depends on your own level and experience. It is not reasonable to adopt the strategy of light position every time. Whether you have this kind of light position awareness is the most important. . When big market conditions and big opportunities come, why not strike hard? The problem is that you cannot habitually strike hard every day!

Foreign large fund investments are very stable, with annual returns generally ranging from 20% to 30%. This is already amazing, but they emphasize stable income strategies rather than big wins in the moment. A short-term big winning strategy can easily lead to a short-term big loss, which will inevitably cause great risks to the capital account and is a very dangerous move for any fund. Diversifying into small investments may be the best approach, which is the essence of this experiment. The effect of diversified investment in the same market or highly correlated markets is not good, and diversified investment among products with strong correlation will lose the meaning of diversified investment. This is exactly what the Chinese investment community is not clear about.

Finally, speculation is a complex process. Not all problems in speculation can be solved by position alone. Position is only an important issue that cannot be ignored.

How to improve your ability to control positions in a weak market

In the securities market, the most powerful weapon for investors to avoid risks is: good position control skills. Especially in a weak market, only by paying attention to and improving the level of position control can investors effectively control risks, prevent further losses, and strive to seize the opportunity to turn defeat into victory. In the current market conditions, investors must pay attention to mastering the following position control skills:

1. Position ratio. In a bear market, the proportion of positions should be appropriately reduced, especially for some investors with heavy or even full positions. They should seize the short-term rebound opportunity during the decline of the market and appropriately clear and sell some shallow stocks. Because, in the continuous decline of the market, the net asset value loss of investors with overweight positions will definitely be greater than the net asset value losses of investors with light positions. The irrational plunge of the stock market will also put strong psychological pressure on investors with full positions, which will in turn affect the actual operations of investors. Moreover, there are many uncertain factors in a bear market, and it is not appropriate to hold a full or heavy position until the market trend has improved significantly. Therefore, for some stocks that are currently shallow and have little room for growth in the future, we must decisively cut their positions. Only by maintaining sufficient reserve funds can we be able to respond easily in a bear market.

2. Position structure. The irrational continuous position breaking and plummeting in the bear market is a favorable opportunity to adjust the position structure, retain the strong and eliminate the weak. You can sell some stocks with inactive stocks, large market sizes, lack of themes and imagination space on rallies, and choose Some have established positions in Xinzhuang, which may evolve into mainstream sectors and leading stocks in the future to absorb bargains. Don't ignore this method of operation, it will be a key factor in determining whether investors can turn defeat into victory or outperform the general trend in the future.

3. Degree of warehousing. Although the current stock market is filled with "bearish" sentiments, and the market and individual stocks are performing "diving" one after another, investors should not be intimidated by the scary appearance of the stock market. According to the current stock market conditions, investors have successfully escaped from the top in the early stage. Investors with short positions and stop losses must dare to take the initiative to buy at low prices. However, we must master the position dividing skills in position control:

1. According to the size of the financial strength, those with more funds can appropriately diversify their investments, and those with less funds can adopt diversified investment operations. It is easy to be affected by fixed transaction costs. factors lead to an increase in transaction fee costs.

2. When the market is at the end of a bear market, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and there are signs of a turn for the better, for strategic replenishment or bottom-breaking buying operations, investments can be appropriately diversified and divided into several periods. Select stocks to buy in sectors that are most likely to become hot spots in the future.

3. According to the idea of ??stock selection, if you choose stocks from the perspective of investment value and it is a long-term strategic position purchase, you can use a diversified investment strategy. If you only select stocks from a speculative perspective, and use them for short-term band operations or intraday "T+0" ultra-short-term operations on trapped stocks, you cannot use a diversified investment strategy. You must use a strategy of concentrating your forces and defeating them one by one. , every band operation, only do one stock carefully.

Fund three-three position system

Divide the funds into three parts, namely bottom funds, chasing funds, and short-term funds. Each fund is further divided into funds 1 fund. 2 capital 3, the amount of capital is: 1 capital 1 = 1/2 capital 2 = 1/3 capital 3;

Buy operation:

Position bottom capital: (large swing movement) Bottom operation)

1. Capital 1----The first low-purchase at the new bottom

2. Capital 2----The second impact of the bottom and low-purchase

3. Fund 3----The third time to hit the bottom and buy low

Chasing rising funds: (Operation in the strong period of large swings)

1. Fund 3- ---The first low purchase when the technical graphics suddenly fell or the volume rose after a good trend

2. Capital 2----The initial heavy volume was withdrawn and the second low purchase

3. Fund 1——High volume, move out of the sufficient changing position to catch up for the third time

Short-term funds: (Be stupid and chase the big rising stocks that are in the position or are no longer in the position)

1. Fund 1 Fund 2 Fund 3——Chase the stocks that are in the position or no longer in the position, or create trading volume to attract the market to follow suit;

2. Fund 1 Fund 3----Participate in the first rebound of stocks that have increased by more than 8%;

3. Fund 2----Participate in the second rebound of stocks that have increased by more than 8%;

Selling operation:

Funds at the bottom of the position: (large swing bottom operation)

1. Fund 1----New bottom, first low buy-- -----Stop loss -3% below cost, any sudden increase to within 4 points of the previous resistance level or sudden rise of 5 points, stop loss, the absorption process remains the same after selling;

2. Funds 2----The second impact on the bottom and buy low-------Any sudden rise to within 4 points of the previous resistance level or a sudden rise of 5 points will stop the profit, all positions will be sold, and the funds will be superimposed after the sale. , the absorption process is still the same;

3. Fund 3----The third impact on the bottom and low buy-------any sudden rise to the previous resistance level 4 Stop profit within 1 point or suddenly rise by 5 points, all positions are sold, funds are superimposed after selling, and the absorption process remains the same;

Chasing rising funds: large band movements Strong segment operation)

1. Capital 3——The first low purchase when the technical graphics suddenly drops or shrinks and rises after the technical graphics go well——Any sudden increase to within 4 points of the previous resistance level or Stop profit suddenly rises by 5 points, sell all positions,

After selling, the funds are superimposed, and the absorption process is still the same;

2. Fund 2----Initial large-volume withdrawal The second low buy--any sudden increase to within 4 points of the previous resistance level or a sudden increase of 5 points, stop profit, all positions are sold, and the funds are superimposed after the sale, and the money is absorbed

The process is still the same;

3. Fund 1----High volume, move out of the full change position to catch up for the third time to absorb---After the huge volume shrinkage begins, all positions are sold. Hold cash.

Short-term funds:

1. Fund 1 Fund 2 Fund 3----Chase the stocks that are in the position or are no longer in the position, or create trading volume to stimulate the market Follow the trend;----After the massive shrinkage begins, all positions are sold. Hold cash.

2. Capital 1 Capital 3----Participated in the first rebound of stocks that rose by more than 8%;----After the massive shrinkage began, all positions were sold. Hold cash.

3. Capital 2----Participate in the second rebound of stocks that rose by more than 8%;-----After the massive shrinkage began, all positions were sold. Hold cash.

To summarize,

Seven times of low buying,

Two times of chasing highs,

One share of 123,

Chasing one share of 321,

Boshi used all one share,

One wave rebounded 2/3 (share),

Two The wave rebounds 1/3 (unit),

People are not saints and they will make mistakes,

Be careful and don’t be afraid of complexity,

Be decisive when buying and selling,

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After a moment of hesitation, a lot of money will be lost.

It is right to buy low and sell high.

Chase the rise and kill the rise to make money.

This capital plan is a plan that gives in when things are good and constantly corrects its own mistakes. It basically guarantees and overcomes the losses caused by errors in judgment. It is a plan that makes long-term profits and is hard to lose.

This is a capital plan for the different banker-making processes of the main force. It also makes the main force unable to do anything before this plan. It is more difficult than Jiantian to prevent you from making money. It is a small capital to track the trend of big capital. The plan is a magic weapon for retail investors. When most people use this plan, the main force can only use the following methods: delaying time, not daring to wash the market fiercely, and more courageously pulling up the market, and causing multiple shocks at high levels. (Collected and organized by 767 Stock Learning Network)

If you want to make a profit without losing money, you must learn to be patient and don’t be afraid of trouble. Although using one of the links individually is also very effective, using it alone will cause system risks. Can you guarantee that you won’t make mistakes?

If you want to earn 3% every day, you should experience it carefully!

No matter how big or small the fund is, a single bet like that of focusing on fooling around will cost you money. If you trade too much, sooner or later you will be doomed.

A complete trading process is like boiling a pot of boiling water. We constantly increase the salary at a low level to keep the fire strong, and at the appropriate time, we chase it higher and pour more oil until the water boils.

Some people say: "The position is not important, the key is to buy stocks that can rise." Isn't this an empty talk? Which stock can rise? Will the main force tell you when it falls? This is the use of positions The method is not a matter of position size.

See clearly!

This is a sure-fire way to make big money when there is a big rise, make big money when there is a small rise, and also make money during a downward trend.