The development steps of this impact of oil on USD/EUR formation. Let me first talk about the big background of oil rising to such a high level. In fact, is it true that less oil is produced internationally and more is used? In fact, this is not the case. I read a data a few days ago. In the entire global market, the daily production is about 8.3 million barrels, and the daily consumption is 8.07 million barrels. If you look at these figures purely, it should be said that crude oil is enough. used. From this perspective, the price of crude oil should not rise to such a high level. However, because crude oil has been at a very low level in the past few years, whether it is its production or other aspects, the market's investment in the production of crude oil and some auxiliary production tools is very insufficient. . This is a potential factor leading to the current rise in crude oil prices. On the other hand, an important reason for the price of crude oil to be so high is that some speculators in the futures market see that crude oil has a very low position. They continue to buy crude oil futures to hoard crude oil, and then Find another excuse to push crude oil to a very high position to make profits. This is a big background for the entire rise in crude oil. Recently, the international oil market has experienced strong shocks, and oil prices have been rising. Currently, some oil prices have exceeded US$40 per barrel. The rise in oil prices has cast a shadow over the world economy, which is just showing signs of recovery. A discussion is unfolding in Western countries about "Who is to blame for the rise in oil prices?" Some media irresponsibly published articles arguing that the main reason for the rise in oil prices is that China's rapid economic growth has greatly increased demand for oil, resulting in an imbalance between supply and demand in the international market. However, authoritative figures in German economic circles believe that the rise in oil prices is due to many factors and cannot be attributed solely to China's increase in energy demand. First of all, since the second half of last year, the world economy has shown signs of recovery, and demand in the international crude oil market has increased significantly, putting new pressure on oil prices. According to forecasts from the International Energy Agency in Vienna, world oil demand will increase to 1 million barrels per day in 2004. The United States' oil consumption accounts for a quarter of the world's total consumption, half of which relies on imports. Secondly, the depreciation of the US dollar has contributed to the rise in oil prices. From February 2002 to February 2004, the price of oil appreciated by 51% in US dollars. The price per barrel increased from US$20 in 2002 to nearly US$40 now. From 2002 to 2004, the US dollar and the euro The exchange rate fell from 1.16 euros per dollar to 0.80 euros per dollar. In this way, oil suppliers are of course willing to trade in US dollars, which further accelerates the depreciation of the US dollar, causing oil prices to rise. Thirdly, the situation in major oil-producing countries is turbulent and terrorist activities continue, which has also seriously affected the stability of international crude oil market prices. Saudi Arabia has the world's largest oil reserves and its oil production accounts for a quarter of the world's total production. The recent kidnapping in the Saudi oil city of Khobar left 22 people dead. This shows that terrorist organizations have begun to shift their targets to oil production. In a statement issued by the self-proclaimed al-Qaeda organization, the terrorists claimed that they were responsible for the incident. They emphasized that foreign invaders have long been plundering the mineral resources of Arab and Muslim countries, and now they are going to deal a heavy blow to these invaders. Iranian Oil Minister Namdar Zanganeh said, "The high oil prices are not caused by the relationship between supply and demand, but by political factors." Finally, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries' policy of limiting production and protecting prices has made oil production in short supply. Last weekend, the finance ministers of developed countries gathered in New York and strongly called on all oil-producing countries to increase oil production accordingly. Only in this way can the world crude oil market price return to the previous level compatible with economic development. Although the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced an increase in oil production at a meeting held in Beirut on the 3rd of this month, international oil prices did not drop as significantly as some people predicted. Observers here believe that the high oil prices are entirely speculative and It is caused by psychological factors such as lack of confidence in the oil market.