Then the question is, what caused the pig price to "skyrocket" again? Since it has gone up again, there must be a reason. There is no rootless tree and passive water, which leads to the price of pigs rising again. In addition to the previous statement (please see the interpretation of pig price in April 15), there are three new supplements today. Let's briefly talk about it with you, so as to better grasp the market dynamics of pig prices and collect pigs.
Supplement 1: According to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, at the end of the first quarter, the number of domestic fertile sows was 465,438 +0.85 million, which was in the green range of pig production regulation, and the production capacity continued to decline, with a decrease of 65,438 +0.05 million compared with 1 at the end of the month. In addition, the pig price has been running at a low level for a long time, which has sent a "positive signal" to the market in the case of continuous decline in production capacity.
Supplement 2: From the futures market, the futures contract prices due in April 15, September 165438+ 10 are 8.3 yuan and 8.8 yuan per catty respectively, which to some extent reflects the market's expectation that the hog price will rise to a reasonable range in the second half of the year.
At the same time, some farmers have carried out "secondary fattening", which makes the pig source of slaughter enterprises obviously tense, and then plays a certain supporting role in the "sail" of pig prices again.
Supplement 3: Recently, affected by the epidemic prevention and control, the demand of residents in the prevention and control areas has increased, and some prevention and control areas have been unsealed one after another. The catering industry and restaurants with a slightly larger floating population began to open, which increased the distribution of white pigs and boosted the market to some extent. The arrival price of white pigs in the wholesale market generally rose by 300 ~ 500 yuan/ton, which directly led to the recovery of pig prices.
With the May Day holiday approaching, slaughtering enterprises have a certain demand for stocking, which makes the pig market rise one after another.
However, due to the fact that "supply exceeds demand" in the domestic pig market still exists, the consumption in the terminal market is unsustainable, and the logistics and transportation are smoother, the market may usher in a wave of slaughter peaks, which will have a certain impact on the subsequent pig prices. It is suggested that farmers should be alert to the risk of "skyrocketing" pig prices.
The systematic monitoring of pig price shows that among the 26 provinces and cities monitored today, the price of live pigs rose by 25% and fell by 1, and the rising areas accounted for 96% of all the monitored areas, and the live pig market was almost in an "all-round rise" trend.
According to the purchasing difficulty of slaughter enterprises, it is more difficult for slaughter enterprises to purchase pigs, and the enthusiasm of farmers to sell pigs is obviously suppressed. Part of the pig sources of the breeding group flowed into the secondary fattening, and the pig sources of the slaughtering enterprises were obviously nervous, and the market bullish sentiment was obvious. The price of pigs in breeding groups has risen, and the price of pigs in pig enterprises has risen. In some areas, the price of breeding pigs has increased by more than 1.0 yuan/kg, and traders are enthusiastic about bidding. There is an obvious premium phenomenon in the breeding population.
Early warning of pig price trend tomorrow: combined with the recent analysis of pig market factors, it is expected that pig price will continue to show a "large-scale rise" trend tomorrow.
The above interpretation of the pig market is for your reference. Welcome to exchange views on the live pig market and grasp the market dynamics. I believe that after all kinds of hardships, you will be thoroughly remoulded.