As the largest agricultural product, urea is the main item of agricultural production cost, which is closely related to farmers' income increase.
Varieties such as thread, coal, iron ore, etc. have large supply and demand, violent price fluctuations and strong finance. Many production and consumption enterprises urgently need such financial instruments that can avoid price fluctuations. At present, the existing agricultural futures include wheat, "three vegetables", cotton, rice and so on. The listing of urea will form a relatively complete series of agricultural means of production and agricultural products, which will be more helpful for agricultural enterprises to use futures tools to serve production and operation. At the same time, urea, as an industrial product of energy and chemical industry, will form more arbitrage trading opportunities with methanol, coal, oil and other varieties after listing, which will help investors improve the efficiency of capital use.
Every day, almost all the food on our table is inseparable from the shadow of "urea".
It is a kind of high-quality and efficient neutral nitrogen fertilizer in agriculture, and it will not harden the soil after long-term use. At the same time, it can also be used as an auxiliary feed for ruminants such as cattle and sheep. Urea and carbohydrates in green feed can be converted into protein by gastric juice. It plays an important role in promoting the growth and fattening of cattle and sheep.
The use of urea and related fertilizers is a very important factor for those of us who live in contemporary China and can survive the famine. Before the emergence of chemical fertilizer, manure was the main raw material to improve land fertility and increase grain output. According to the application amount of chemical fertilizer of nearly 30 kg (pure nutrient) per mu in China, if it is converted into manure with the same nutrient, it needs at least 1 ton. According to China's per capita arable land of more than 2 mu, a person produces only seven or eight tons of feces in his life. If he spreads it on every mu of land on average every year, it is only equivalent to a handful of chemical fertilizer.
During the period of 1958- 1970, due to the lack of breakthrough in key technologies, China had to rely on foreign key equipment to independently produce fertilizer raw materials. In the 1960s, our fertilizer output only increased by about 200,000 tons per year on average, and the corresponding grain output fluctuated. 10 only increased by 30 million tons (calculated by 1958). During the same period, India's grain output also increased by 30 million tons by purchasing fertilizers and equipment for manufacturing fertilizers.
By 1970, we had mastered the construction technology of complete sets of synthetic ammonia equipment, and built hundreds of synthetic ammonia plants and thousands of chemical fertilizer plants in one breath. Since then, the average annual output of chemical fertilizers in China has increased by 6.5438+0 million tons, with an annual increase of 2 million tons from 1975, which is equivalent to the total output of chemical fertilizers in 1970. After 2004, the grain self-sufficiency rate in China remained above 95%. In contrast, Japan's food self-sufficiency rate is about 40%, and South Korea's food self-sufficiency rate is only about 25%. China has become the second largest grain producer in the world, which is actually closely related to urea.
Urea also plays an important role in the industrial field. Can be used for synthesizing plastics, medicines, adhesives, coatings and the like. Can also produce dewaxing agent, mineral processing foaming agent, foaming agent AC and other chemical products. Medicinal urea injection can be used to reduce intracranial pressure, and sulfonylureas can be used to alleviate inflammation; It can also be used in tanning, pigment and other production.
At present, 1/3 of the world urea production is used for industrial consumption. In China, 60% of urea products are used in agriculture and other major industrial fields.
As a variety to be listed soon, its industrial chain, market supply and demand, and price influencing factors are all basic knowledge that investors must understand when they participate in urea futures trading in the future.
Therefore, it is necessary for us to sort out the context of urea industry, from production technology to domestic and foreign markets.
Once urea futures are listed, this article is your first stepping stone.
Urea production technology
Urea production
Judging from the source of urea raw materials, coal and natural gas are widely used in China at present.
Urea production from coal
As the main raw material for urea production, coal usually accounts for more than 60% of urea cost. The fluctuation of coal price is undoubtedly the "wind vane" of urea rise and fall.
In China, coal water slurry is usually partially oxidized with pure oxygen to produce gaseous products with CO2 and H2 as the main components. Next, the poisons CO, H2S and COS in the ammonia synthesis catalyst are removed from the process to purify the gas, and then high-purity CO2 is further separated to meet the needs of urea synthesis, high-purity H2 is prepared and inert gases CH4 and Ar are removed, and the high-purity H2 is refined to finally obtain pure hydrogen and nitrogen to meet the needs of ammonia synthesis. The qualified fresh gas (H2:N2=3: 1) from the liquid nitrogen washing unit is pressurized by the synthesis gas compressor and sent to the ammonia synthesis tower, where it is catalytically synthesized by the ammonia synthesis catalyst at high temperature (380-430℃) and high pressure (14.2Mpa). It is sent to the urea plant in the form of liquid nitrogen. Liquid nitrogen and carbon dioxide with a molar ratio of 2: 1 enter the synthesis unit.
Production of urea from natural gas
When pure oxygen from natural gas is autothermally converted to urea to produce ammonia, ammonia and carbon are basically balanced, and 1t ammonia can be produced to 1.7t urea, and there is no excess CO2 emission. The pure oxygen gasification of coal to produce ammonia and urea can produce 65,438+0.6 t CO2. H2 and CO2 can be separated by pressurized electrolytic water, and the excess CO2 can be directly made into dry ice.
Most natural gas in China is concentrated in the northwest and southwest. In the first and fourth quarters of each year, local gas head devices will reduce production or stop production in a large area. The expected increase in natural gas prices and a large increase in natural gas prices led to a sharp decline in the competitiveness of gas-fired urea, and eventually withdrew from the urea market because the cost rose faster than the urea price. Urea production enterprises with coal as raw material will be polarized. First, the proportion of urea produced from bituminous coal will increase. Second, a large number of small urea plants below "1830" will eventually withdraw from the market, and the proportion of coke oven gas to produce synthetic ammonia and urea will increase.
There are more than 50 methods to produce urea in the world, but only calcium cyanamide (lime nitrogen) method and direct synthesis of ammonia and CO2 are industrialized. Among them, the direct synthesis of urea from ammonia and CO2 is widely used because of the convenient acquisition of raw materials.
At present, there are more than 200 sets of urea plants in China, and their scales are divided into large (more than 480,000 tons/year), medium (1 1 10,000 tons/year) and small (more than 40,000 tons/year). Small and medium-sized urea plants all adopt domestic water solution full circulation technology, while large plants mostly adopt imported technology. At present, the urea plant designed by CO2 stripping and ammonia stripping in China is basically close to the theoretical level. Compared with the traditional design, the utility consumption is lower and the investment is less.
No matter which process is adopted in modern urea production, it basically consists of six process units: raw material supply, urea high-pressure synthesis, urea solution separation process, unreacted ammonia and carbon dioxide recovery, urea solution concentration, granulation, product transportation and process condensate treatment. The basic process is shown in the figure. Raw materials CO2 and NH3 are pressurized and sent to a high-pressure synthesis ring to react to generate urea, and the conversion rate of carbon dioxide is in the range of 50%~75%, which is called a synthesis process; The separation process and the unreacted material recovery unit are responsible for separating ammonia and carbon dioxide that are not converted into urea from the solution and recycling them back to the synthesis process, so these two units are collectively referred to as circulation processes; Finally, 70%~75% urea solution is concentrated and processed into solid products in vacuum evaporation granulation equipment, which is called the final processing procedure.
Although the basic processes of urea production are similar, there are some differences in specific processes, process conditions and equipment structure. Up to now, most urea plants in the world have been developed and designed by several engineering design companies, and several typical process flows have been formed. Typical examples are CO2 stripping of aqueous solution in full cycle of Stamicarbon Company in the Netherlands, ammonia stripping of Snamprogetti Company in Italy, constant pressure double cycle process (IDR) of Monte Edison Group Company, improved "C" process and improved "D" process of full cycle of Mitsui East Asia-Toyo Engineering Company in Japan, ACES process and thermal cycle urea process of UTI in the United States. But no matter which process flow, the consumption of NH3 and CO2, the main raw materials in the production process, is basically the same. Whether the process flow is advanced or not is mainly reflected in the consumption of water, electricity and steam in public works. The improvement process of urea production process is essentially a process of reducing the consumption of public works.
Total circulation method of aqueous solution
In 1960s, the method of total circulation of aqueous solution was successful. Domestic medium-sized urea plants all belong to this category. In addition, the total circulation method of Stamicarbon aqueous solution in the Netherlands and the improved C method of total circulation of Mitsui East Pressure solution in Japan also belong to this category. The basic principle of the process is that unreacted ammonia and carbon dioxide are decomposed and separated by heating under reduced pressure, and then absorbed by water to generate ammonium carbamate or carbonic acid aqueous solution, which is recycled to the synthesis system. This method is mainly used in small and medium-sized nitrogenous fertilizer enterprises. The urea production plant with total circulation of aqueous solution has few static high-pressure equipment, reliable process, low requirements for equipment and materials and low investment. However, the problems of high energy and material consumption, large venting loss and small scale are very prominent, and the transformation has great potential to increase production.
Stamicarbon carbon dioxide stripping urea process
CO2 stripping is improved on the basis of full circulation of aqueous solution. Compared with the latter, the intermediate pressure circulating part running at the pressure of 1.7-2.6Mpa is omitted, thus the intermediate pressure ammonium carbamate pump is omitted. The 1620t/d urea plant imported from Kellogg Company of the United States, the 1740t/d urea plant imported from Holty Company of France, and the 1740t/d urea plant jointly designed by the Fourth Design Institute of the former Ministry of Chemical Industry of China and Continental Dutch Company all adopt CO2 stripping urea production technology. Among them, Sino-Dutch urea plant adopts improved CO2 stripping method, and compared with urea plants in the United States and France, the process flow is slightly improved.
Consumption quota (guaranteed value, calculated by 1 ton of urea)
Snamprogetti urea ammonia extraction process
Italian Snamprogetti Company was founded in 1956, and started the research on urea production in the early 1960s. 1966 The first urea plant with a daily output of 70 tons was built, and ammonia was used as stripping gas. In the early first generation urea plant by ammonia extraction, the equipment was arranged in a three-dimensional frame, and ammonia was directly added to the bottom of the stripper. In the mid-1970s, the design was improved and the equipment was changed to plane layout. Moreover, ammonia is not directly added to the stripping tower, which is the so-called self-stripping process or the second generation ammonia stripping process, which is the current method.
Design index of consumption quota (calculated by 1 ton urea)
Judging from the consumption of various technological processes, the total circulation method of aqueous solution is undoubtedly the biggest consumption. Compared with gas stripping, the total circulation method of aqueous solution has unreasonable energy utilization, high consumption and long process, and it is rarely used in newly built large and medium-sized factories in recent years. CO2 stripping has the lowest operating pressure in the high-pressure loop, no medium-pressure system, short process, less equipment, stable production, low consumption and less investment. It has rich experience in design, equipment manufacturing and production in China, and adopts dehydrogenation technology to fundamentally eliminate the explosion danger in production. The ammonia extraction process is advanced, with low consumption, no high frame structure and no explosion danger. However, this process requires the purchase of foreign special process packages, the equipment can not be localized, and the equipment manufacturing cycle is long, so this process is not adopted.
China urea market
At present, it is more appropriate to describe the domestic nitrogen fertilizer market as "besieged on all sides".
Following the supply-side reform in the coal and steel industries, a mighty supply-side reform movement was launched in the agricultural field in 20 16. The annual output of grain and corn decreased by about 30 million mu. 20 16- 10 China's urea export was cancelled, China's urea export advantage was lost, and its export plummeted. In August, 20 16, the market price of urea in China also fell to the lowest level in 10, with a drop of more than1/00 yuan/ton. The selling price and cost are seriously upside down, and the operating rate of enterprises has plummeted. At present, there are still about 5 million tons of production capacity in a "zombie" state, frozen but not dead.
20 17 according to the spirit of the just-concluded two sessions, we will continue to reduce the corn planting area and strive to achieve a total reduction of 40 million mu. This also means that the non-dominant major producing areas such as the "sickle bend" area in northern China will continue to reduce production by 6.5438+million mu. The reduction of planting area means that the domestic demand for urea is further weak.
At the same time, at the beginning of this year, the state issued the Action Plan of Replacing Chemical Fertilizer with Organic Fertilizer for Fruit and Vegetable Tea. At the beginning of March, all localities began to apply for pilot projects and publicize alternative fertilizers. It is estimated that the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied to fruit trees and vegetables in China accounts for about 36% of the agricultural consumption of nitrogen fertilizer. The implementation of this action plan will have a great impact on nitrogen fertilizer consumption in the near future.
Therefore, from various information, China's demand for agricultural nitrogen fertilizer has entered a plateau period, and it will not increase significantly in the future, and may gradually decline. However, the demand for non-agricultural urea still has room for growth. In 20 17 years, the demand for industrial urea will continue to grow. Wood-based panel enterprises started to improve, melamine made a good profit, started to improve, and increased production capacity; In addition, due to the strengthening of environmental protection, it is expected that the denitration of thermal power and the consumption of urea for vehicles will continue to increase. According to the data, the apparent consumption of urea in 20 17 years is estimated to be 510.5 million tons, which is 3% lower than that in 20 16 years.
From the supply side, the 20 17 urea industry will continue to reduce production capacity. In 20 16, China's urea production capacity has withdrawn from 4.33 million tons, and this year it will continue to close 3 million tons of urea production capacity, and the effective production capacity in China will be about 75.55 million tons in the future. However, compared with the domestic demand of about 510.5 million tons, the production capacity is still 35% surplus regardless of product export.
From the perspective of urea production cost, the increase in urea production cost caused by rising raw material prices may support urea prices. In terms of energy, it is expected that the price of 20 17 coal will remain stable or increase slightly. It is expected that after the end of the heating season, the shortage of natural gas supply will be eased, and some gas-fired urea enterprises will resume production, but the gas price will remain high. In terms of electricity price, it is expected that it will remain stable in 20 17 years, and some areas may be slightly lowered.
In addition, the market of chemical products such as methanol and liquid ammonia is promising, which has a positive role in promoting the urea market.
It is worth noting that there will be an inflection point between supply and demand in the international crude oil market in 20 17, and the rebound of oil prices will become a high probability event. The rebound of oil price will push up the price of foreign natural gas, weaken the competitiveness of foreign gas-fired nitrogen fertilizer, lead to the price increase of downstream chemical products methanol and synthetic ammonia, and then support the international nitrogen fertilizer price.
By then, China's urea export will be favorable.
Therefore, the urea market as a whole is in a state of decreasing supply and demand, but supply still exceeds demand. But the urea market and enterprise benefit in 20 17 years will be better than that in 20 16 years. In the case of further promotion of production capacity and alleviation of excess, it is still necessary to pay attention to the price trend of raw materials, the cost of electricity and the demand for new urea except agriculture.
Regional Distribution of Urea Production in China
Judging from the distribution of urea production in China, most enterprises are concentrated in the main grain and cotton producing areas and raw material concentration areas. With the continuous development of urea industry in recent years, the distribution of urea production capacity in China has also changed greatly. The urea production capacity in the original major grain and cotton producing areas (three northeastern provinces, Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Hubei, Hunan and Jiangxi) is gradually decreasing, while the resource real estate in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang can be greatly increased. From the distribution of production capacity, Shandong, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang and Henan have become the main urea producing areas in China.
The difference of urea production cost between Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, which occupy resources, and Fujian, Hunan and Guangdong, which are far away from resources, is 300 yuan/ton.
Export situation of urea in China
In 20 16, China exported 8.87 million tons of urea, down 35.5% from last year. The decline in exports is the main factor to suppress the domestic urea price of 20 16. Because China has been implementing various subsidies for urea, resulting in strong export competitiveness, many capacity expansion in China is also oriented to the export market.
However, in recent two years, foreign low-cost production capacity has reached its peak, resulting in a sharp decline in China's export market. Even the import price of India, the world's largest urea import market, is even lower than the market price of China, resulting in a price inversion that did not occur in 10 years, which also forced the urea boom in China to fall to freezing point.
In addition, according to the planting intention report released by the US Department of Agriculture, the planting area of corn in the United States will be reduced by 24 million mu compared with last year, soybean will be increased by more than 27 million mu, wheat will be reduced by 8.3%, rice will be reduced by 17%, and cotton will be slightly increased. This adjustment of planting structure will inevitably lead to the reduction of urea demand, which is believed to be happening in Europe and even the world.
However, the rising gas price in North America will also change its comparative advantage and make it a high-cost production capacity again. It is expected that urea exports will stop falling next year. If the export tariff of 80 yuan/ton can be further reduced or even abolished in the future, the cost of coal-fired urea in China will regain its global comparative advantage.
Difference of urea production cost in China
Judging from the production cost of urea, the cost of gas head will increase greatly. The state has been heavily subsidizing the price of fertilizer gas, which is generally lower than that of industrial gas by more than 0.4 yuan/m3. According to the calculation, the price of gas in northwest, Sichuan and Chongqing is low, and the cost is below 1000 yuan/ton; In other areas, the gas price is high, and the cost is about 1300 yuan/ton, so it has no economic benefits. However, with 20 16 1 1 month, the state explicitly canceled the preferential price of chemical fertilizer gas. It is predicted that the cost of chemical fertilizer gas will increase by at least 0.4 yuan/m2 in the future, and the corresponding urea cost will increase by more than 280 yuan/ton. According to the current price, except the northwest and Sichuan-Chongqing areas, other production capacity has completely lost its competitiveness, affecting the production capacity by more than100000 tons.
A large number of fixed beds will be withdrawn. The biggest difference between coal slurry method and fixed bed method is the different coal gasification process. Coal slurry consumes more coal, but bituminous coal is cheaper and consumes less power than anthracite in fixed bed. Due to the great difference in coal prices in different regions, the cost of coal head is also very different. Generally speaking, the cost of fixed bed in the same area is about 200 yuan/ton higher than that of coal water slurry method. At present, the fixed bed is generally in a state of loss, even cash flow loss, and it is considered that this part of production capacity may also be withdrawn in large quantities in the future.
At present, the polarization of urea industry is very serious. The energy of abortion under 400,000 tons is relatively large. In 20 16, the small production capacity below 400,000 tons totaled 7 million tons, including 6.05 million tons of fixed bed and 950,000 tons of gas head. However, large urea enterprises still maintain a high operating rate.
In general, small enterprises have high production costs. In the past few years, the urea market has performed generally, and no funds have been accumulated to resist industry fluctuations. At present, in extreme cases, you can only choose to stop work and stop loss; The central region began to shut down small boilers under the requirements of environmental protection. Taking Henan as an example, all boilers with a capacity of less than 6,543,800 tons were required to shut down and switch to natural gas or electricity, which led to a sharp increase in costs and forced small enterprises to shut down.
Future urea pattern in China? Because natural gas will continue to rise, coal will become the main raw material for urea production in the future. In the next three to five years, the natural gas urea producers in China will quit the urea industry, just like the enterprises producing urea from petroleum. Due to regional differences, urea enterprises in Jiangnan will basically close down and will mainly import.
China urea industry will have a new pattern. In Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia, including places with coal in the northeast, urea enterprises will suddenly emerge. Shanxi's coal mining cost is high (because it is almost finished), while Xinjiang's coal is basically free. The total cost of urea production from coal in Xinjiang is 600 yuan, and the ton cost of natural gas production in Xinjiang is 1.600 yuan, and the price difference is 1.000 yuan. If the transportation is convenient, Xinjiang has the most advantages. However, it must be large enterprises that dare to set up factories in Xinjiang, but small enterprises can't. A capital platform must be built on the Gobi desert in Xinjiang, and at least 20 billion yuan will be invested in three years. In the Gobi desert, although the cost of urea is low, other costs are high.
International urea market
The global urea production capacity is about 208 million tons, the demand is 65.438+85 million tons (serious overcapacity), and the operating rate is 89%. Among them, China and India have the largest production capacity, accounting for 40% and 16% respectively, which are basically based on coal head production capacity. Other regions, such as the Middle East, North America and Russia, use natural gas as raw materials.
The total global urea trade is 47 million tons per year, accounting for 25% of the total demand. The main importing areas are the United States, India, Africa and Latin America, and the exporting countries are China, the Middle East and Russian. In the past two years, the biggest capacity growth came from North America and North Africa, with a total increase of 8.59 million tons, which greatly reduced the original imports and oppressed the global surplus export capacity to gather in India. Indian accounts for 70% of China's urea exports.
In 20 17, the foreign urea production capacity increased by 6160,000 tons, of which two sets of urea production capacity in the United States are expected to be put into production in the first half of the year, and several other sets of equipment will be put into production one after another, which will inevitably affect the international market and occupy China's export market. It is estimated that China's urea export volume will be about 7 million tons in 20 17. Recently, the international favorable situation is still not obvious, China's urea export is difficult to improve, and a new round of Indian urea bidding has not yet been determined.
Linkage relationship between urea and coal, oil and natural gas
Natural gas, coal and petroleum are the three major raw materials for industrial production of urea, which are usually called gas head, coal head and oil head. Usually, urea is closely related to the rise and fall of these raw materials. Judging from the price trend of coal and urea in the following figure, in the second half of 20 16, the domestic coal price rose all the way, and the price of anthracite lump coal, which is the raw material of traditional urea process, almost doubled. The skyrocketing coal price is naturally the main reason for the subsequent soaring cost and price of urea. However, with the decline of domestic coal prices in the later period, urea cost support has been bearish. Some urea enterprises choose to quote back, and the market mentality is also changing accordingly. Compared with crude oil, according to Pearson formula, the correlation coefficient between international crude oil and urea price in recent three years is as high as 0.85.
Therefore, the listing of urea futures will provide more investment options for more investors. Poker investors will also continue to track any progress in the listing of urea futures.