Since July, Shanghai Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. has ushered in a long-term rise, with a cumulative increase of 12%. Recently, supported by favorable cost and demand, Shanghai Iron and Steel is eager to try, but the expectation of strengthening regulatory policies in the market outlook and the strength of the US dollar restrict its rise. Last Friday, the central bank failed to raise interest rates as expected by the market. In June, CPI 5438+065438+ 10 hit a new high in the year, which triggered investors' concerns about the country's efforts to increase regulation and control, adding uncertainty to the market outlook of Shanghai Steel.
Last Friday, the central bank announced that it would raise the RMB deposit reserve ratio of deposit-taking financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points from the 20th of this month. This is the sixth time that the central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio this year and the third time this month, which is expected to affect liquidity in the banking system by 300 billion yuan. The central bank raised the deposit reserve ratio this time, on the one hand, tightening liquidity, on the other hand, easing the current excessive growth rate of credit supply. At the same time, the proportion of foreign exchange has been high, and taking interest rate hike measures will accelerate the inflow of overseas hot money, which is not conducive to regulation. Therefore, raising the deposit reserve ratio by the central bank is more beneficial to the economy than raising interest rates.
According to the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the consumer price index (CPI) rose by 5. 1% year-on-year in June from 5438+065438+ 10. It is expected that CPI will still run at a high level in the first quarter of next year. 55438+065438+ 10 The purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry was 55.2%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. Among the sub-indices, the purchase price index rose the most, reaching 3.6%, indicating that inflationary pressure still exists in the near future. The recent the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting pointed out the general direction of the future monetary policy, and it is necessary to implement a proactive fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy to enhance the pertinence, flexibility and effectiveness of macro-control. The author believes that the high inflation in June 5438+065438+ 10 is not what the government wants to see, and subsequent regulation may follow, and the alarm of interest rate increase during the year has not been lifted. With the transformation of monetary policy, in order to curb the rise of inflation, there may be about two interest rate hikes before the first half of next year, and monetary policy will be based on stability.
China's steel consumption is mainly concentrated in the construction, machinery manufacturing, automobile and other industries. A few days ago, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development issued the Notice on Submitting the Tasks of Urban Affordable Housing Projects to Various Places, which pointed out that in 20 1 1 year, it is planned to arrange100000 sets of affordable housing projects, an increase of 72% over the 5.8 million sets in 201year. What does this100000 affordable housing mean? For example, according to the calculation of each set of 80 square meters, the national sales volume of commercial housing in 2009 was about 1 17 10000 sets. Therefore, the number of affordable housing built in 20 1 1 can be compared with the national sales of commercial housing in 2009. At present, the area of affordable housing is mostly planned to be between 50 and 70 square meters. According to the steel consumption of 40-60 kg/m2, it is expected to boost the consumption of 30 million tons of steel, which shows the power of the 654.38+million sets of affordable housing. Commercial housing sales, 165438+ 10 showed a situation of rising volume and price. Statistics from the Bureau of Statistics show that in June, the national commercial housing sales area was 5438+01130,000 square meters, up by 14.5% year-on-year, and the housing sales prices in 70 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 7.7% year-on-year, reaching 0.3%. In addition, the government's investment in fixed assets has been continuously improved, and the investment in the "TieGong Ji" project has grown steadily. 1 1 in the current month, the central project investment1683.7 billion yuan, up by 10.2% year-on-year, and the local project investment 19386 1 billion yuan, up by 26.4%. Generally speaking, the consumption of steel in the construction industry is relatively secure and keeps growing.
The machinery manufacturing industry has recovered rapidly this year. In June, the general equipment manufacturing industry increased by 19.0%, and the electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 17.4%. From June to June this year, the growth rate of production and sales of the whole machinery manufacturing industry reached more than 40%, and it is expected to maintain a growth rate of more than 20% next year. In the automobile industry, the production capacity has maintained steady growth. During the three years from 2006 to 2009, the automobile production capacity in China increased from 8 million to nearly 20 million. In the first three quarters of this year, the output reached 13082700, a year-on-year increase of 36 10%. With the continuous launch of new capacity projects in various places and the strong support of the state for new energy vehicle projects, the automobile industry will usher in a new climax at 20 1 1. The rapid development of the steel consumption terminal industry and the steady investment of the state in the "Tiegongji" project will push up the steel demand for 20 1 1 year.
20 1 1 There was still no breakthrough in iron ore negotiations in the first quarter. BHP Billiton hopes to index iron ore pricing and give pricing power to the market, while Vale focuses on reducing transportation costs to improve competitiveness. Long-term cooperative pricing is beneficial to it. Rio Tinto hopes to promote quarterly pricing, but the three major miners have always had a tacit understanding on whether to raise ore prices. It has become an industry consensus that iron ore will rise next year. If the quarterly pricing is continued, the iron ore price will increase by 4% in the first quarter of next year, and this year 10, 1 1 in September. In addition, some Japanese steel companies have reached an agreement with Vale on the iron ore price in the first quarter of next year, and the iron ore price will be raised from the current 126 to 135 in the first quarter of next year, with an increase of about 7%. On the whole, the increase in mineral prices may be 4%-7% next year.
With regard to coal, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the Notice on Doing a Good Job in Connecting 20 1 1 Coal Production and Transportation, requiring that the contract price of 20 1 1 key thermal coal should remain unchanged at the previous year's level, and no price increase in disguise is allowed. However, we must note that the price of coal in the spot market has not been restricted, and the medium and long-term price of coal is still on the rise. Of the actual purchasing costs of 75 large and medium-sized iron and steel enterprises from 1 to 10 this year, coal injection increased by 15.05%, metallurgical coke increased by 12.34%, and coking coal increased by 27.50006 The increase in iron ore and coal prices is expected to provide steel prices.
On the whole, CPI breaking 5 may make short-term regulation policies follow, and there is still the possibility of raising interest rates in the near future. At the same time, the safe-haven buying triggered by the European debt crisis will maintain the strength of the US dollar and put some pressure on Shanghai Steel. The market outlook may tend to be dull, and the rising profit-taking sentiment will make rebar have greater upward resistance. In addition, rebar inventories in major cities hit a new low in the year last week. The expectation of rising iron ore prices and coal prices has increased the enthusiasm of steel consumption terminals for winter storage, and the short-term spot market will be boosted. With the commodity gradually returning to the fundamentals, the rising production cost of rebar will become the supporting factor of its future price. Rebar is optimistic in the medium and long term, and short-term callback may be a good opportunity to intervene on dips. The influence of the policy makes Shanghai Iron and Steel have a greater risk of challenging the previous high point. It is suggested that many parties should make profits near the high point on the 9 th of last month.