According to SWIFT data, in May of 20 19, the international market share of USD, EUR, GBP and JPY ranked the top four in the world, accounting for 40%, 34.42%, 6.66% and 3. 18% respectively. The market share of RMB in international payment is 1.95%, ranking fifth in the world. China holds huge foreign exchange reserves in US dollars and is the most important supporter of international payment in US dollars. In addition, the share of RMB in international payment is limited, so the pricing power of RMB for international commodities is poor, and it has little impact on futures.
Because the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is mainly influenced by the US dollar, when the RMB appreciates, the US dollar exchange rate will generally depreciate, while when the US dollar depreciates, it is often conducive to the rise of international commodity prices, which will generally benefit futures bulls.
However, the pricing of international commodities is complex, which is not only affected by the fluctuation of the exchange rate of the US dollar, but also by many factors such as economic growth, supply and demand, trade relations, monetary policy, inflation level, market arbitrage, market manipulation, major international events and so on. Therefore, unless the US dollar fluctuates unilaterally for a long time, the fluctuation of the US dollar exchange rate may not completely dominate the commodity prices.
For example, at the beginning of 20 17-20 18, the RMB appreciated in the medium term and the US dollar depreciated in the medium term. However, most international commodity prices are still in a long-term weak position, which is mainly caused by the slowdown of international economic growth, the Fed's interest rate hike and Wall Street manipulation.
The manipulation of the domestic futures market has been relatively strong. Due to the lack of pricing power of international commodities, some domestic main forces often cooperate with Wall Street to aggravate the extreme trend of commodities, so the domestic rubber and grain futures prices have generally weakened for a long time in recent years. One is to repair the high inflation around 20 1 1, and the other is that the price of commodities is seriously deviated from the normal price because of futures betting, which has done great harm to the domestic real economy and given most domestic futures investors. Therefore, the fluctuation of domestic commodity prices is not greatly affected by the RMB exchange rate.
With the continuous development of China's commodity futures market, the increasing international share of RMB, the impact of China's demand on the global market, and the continuous improvement of China's international commodity pricing ability, the impact of RMB on futures prices has improved.
However, due to the late start of China's financial market, immature management, game rules, environment and investment participants, especially the lack of strategic thinking in international competitiveness, domestic futures are deeply influenced by Wall Street, so the impact of RMB on futures is still limited in the short to medium term, which will take time to change. Generally speaking, judging the fluctuation of futures prices by the appreciation of RMB is actually based on the US dollar.