Main recommendations
Comments on currency data in July: Loans increased substantially, and the growth rate of M2 bottomed out.
In the first half of the year, the insurance premium income was negative, and the industry concentration increased.
Market review
Market Comments: Policy news continues to heat up, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and the operation is cautiously optimistic.
Macro perspective: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In the first seven months, the mobile Internet traffic increased by three times, and the number of mobile phone users exceeded 65.438+0.5 billion.
Infrastructure industry: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound in the later period, and we are optimistic about the relative performance of the sector.
Futures information
Metal energy: gold 266.45, up 0.81%; Copper 487 10, up1.25%; Rebar 4369, down 0.16%; The PVC index was 7 175, down1.24%; Zheng Chun 33 17, up1.10%; Shanghai Aluminum 14725, up1.90%; Shanghai nickel 1 12890, up1.18%; Iron ore was 494.5, down 2.18%; Coking coal 1287.0, down1.30%; Crude oil was 496.4, up 0.67%; Coke was 2569.5, down 3.71%; Rubber 12 175, up by 7.70%; Manganese silicon 8632, down 3.14%; Ferrosilicon 6662, down 3.37%;
Agricultural products: soybean oil 5874, flat; Corn 1875, down 0.05%; Palm oil 4946, flat; Cotton 17095, up1.67%; Zheng Mai 2605, down 0.34%; White sugar 4942, up 0.55%; Apple 1 1906, down 1.24%.
Exchange rate: Euro/USD 1. 15, up by 0.27%; USD/RMB 6.84, down 0.18%; USD/HK$ 7.85, flat.
Main recommendations
Comments on the monetary data of June 5438+0 and July: the loan growth was obvious, and the growth rate of M2 bottomed out.
Event: Recently, the People's Bank of China released data showing that RMB loans increased by 1.45 trillion yuan in July, an increase of 627.8 billion yuan year-on-year; At the end of July, the balance of broad money (M2) was 177.62 trillion yuan, up 8.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage point higher than that at the end of last month.
Comments: The year-on-year growth of new loans is obviously mainly driven by policies. In that month, the central bank increased capital investment to provide liquidity support for banks, and supported banks to increase investment in small and micro enterprises and infrastructure construction. The obvious growth of RMB loans shows that the ability and willingness of banks to lend have increased. At the same time, the optimization of credit structure is conducive to the continuous expansion of domestic demand. Resident deposits are the main force driving the year-on-year rebound of M2. The new asset management regulations put forward higher requirements for asset management products to invest in non-standard assets. On the one hand, it narrowed the off-balance-sheet financing channels, on the other hand, it slowed down the expansion of off-balance-sheet financial management, which led to the return of residents' assets to on-balance-sheet deposits. M2 growth rate bottomed out, reflecting that the current market liquidity is generally abundant, the market interest rate is down, the deposit derivative effect is enhanced, and the market liquidity is improving.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
2. In the first half of the year, the premium income of the insurance industry was negative, and the industry concentration increased.
Event: Recently, China Banking Regulatory Commission released the statistics of premium data for the first half of 20 18. Statistics report shows that the original insurance premium income of the industry was 2,236.9 billion yuan, down 3.33% year-on-year. Among them, the original insurance premium income of property insurance companies was 60241800 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of14.18%; The original insurance premium income of life insurance companies was163451900 million yuan, down 8.50% year-on-year.
Comments: As can be seen from the above data, the negative growth of insurance premium income is mainly due to the decline of personal insurance business, which accounts for half of the insurance market. Among the three types of life insurance, health insurance and personal accident insurance both increased by more than 15%, while life insurance decreased by 12. 15%. Since last year, the regulatory authorities have carried out several rounds of clean-up and rectification of life insurance products. The impact of 134 and 19 on the industry is still being digested, and some life insurance companies that actively transform themselves are gradually adapting because of the difficulty in selling long-term guaranteed insurance products. As major insurance companies increase market investment and sales of guaranteed business, it is expected that the scale of industry manpower will increase in the second half of the year. The premium growth rate is improved and the superposition structure is optimized. Although the annual growth rate has dropped significantly, it is highly certain that embedded value will maintain a medium-high growth rate. By the end of June, the premium income of the four major life insurance companies accounted for 50.94% of the entire life insurance industry. The year-on-year growth rates of Ping An, CPIC, China Life and Xinhua were 2 1.65, 438+09%, 17.665, 438+0%, 4.05% and 10.83%, respectively, which were higher than the industry average. The market share of the four listed companies has steadily increased since 2065438+February 2008, and it is expected that the market share will further increase in the future.
(investment consultant Zhong Yanling registered investment consultant certificate number: S02606 13020024)
Market review
1, market comments: Policy news continues to heat up, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate and rebound, and the operation is cautiously optimistic.
The market continued to rebound on Tuesday, and the transaction was relatively flat. At the close, the Shanghai Composite Index reported 2733.83 points, with an increase of 1.3 1%, while the Shenzhen Component Index reported 8549.06 points, with an increase of1.60%; Chuangzhi Bao 1456.97 points, an increase of 1.48%. Heavyweights such as insurance and banks and white horse stocks such as liquor and household appliances have strengthened one after another, driving the Shanghai Composite Index to recover 2700 points strongly, with an increase of over 1%. The market continued to rise, mainly because several news on Tuesday boosted market confidence. The State Council said that the state-owned private economy is treated equally; China securities journal reporter said that the risk weight of local debt is expected to drop to zero; Besides, Jia Yueting said, I want to pay back the money. These news have eliminated many worries in the market, such as the status of the private economy; The treatment of local debt involves the bad debts of banks; And the stock pledge of listed companies, which further involves the stock pledge of securities companies. If these problems can be properly solved, the improvement is also reasonable. It is expected that the short-term market will continue to fluctuate and rebound. In operation, it is suggested to be cautious and optimistic, strengthen band operation flexibly, and pay attention to varieties with clear performance growth and reasonable valuation on dips. It is suggested to focus on the reform of state-owned enterprises, finance, infrastructure, semiconductors and information software. The stock market is risky, so you need to be cautious in investing.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
2. Macro perspective: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology: In the first seven months, mobile Internet traffic increased by three times, and mobile phone users exceeded 65.438+0.5 billion.
On August 2 1 day, the data disclosed by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology showed that by the end of July, the total number of mobile phone users in the three basic telecommunications enterprises had reached 654.38+0.52 billion, up by 6543.8+0. 1% year-on-year, with a net increase of 654.38+0.7 billion from June to July. During the period of1-July, the telecom business revenue totaled 779.9 billion yuan, up by 3.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage point compared with the period of1-June. From June 5438 to July, the cumulative traffic of mobile Internet reached 32.9 billion GB, a year-on-year increase of 202.4%.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
3. Infrastructure industry: the growth rate of infrastructure investment is expected to stabilize and rebound in the later period, optimistic about the relative performance of the sector.
The marginal improvement of social financing data in July is optimistic about the sustainability of infrastructure performance (especially relative income). The main optimistic reasons are: 1) On-balance-sheet credit expansion continues. In July, social financing caliber RMB loans 1.29 trillion, an increase of about 400 billion over the same period of last year; In July, RMB loans increased by 1.45 trillion, an increase of 624.5 billion over the same period of last year; Corporate bond issuance financing was 223.7 billion yuan, an increase of more than 90 billion yuan from the previous month; Loans in infrastructure industry increased by 654.38+072.4 billion yuan, an increase of 46.9 billion yuan from the previous month. 2) Off-balance-sheet contraction has converged. In July, entrusted loans contracted by 95 billion yuan, which was obviously convergent compared with the previous period. 3) Credit risk management and repair is helpful to reduce the financing cost of construction enterprises. At present, the yield of 3-year /5-year AA corporate bonds is 5.0 1%/5.44%, which is 12/ 19bp higher than the previous week. 4) The last four rounds of policy easing have driven the infrastructure market for 6-9 months, and the absolute/relative returns are above 40%/35% respectively. The pace is to raise the valuation in the early stage and see the performance in the later stage; This week, the Ministry of Finance issued specific requirements for the issuance of local special bonds, and the marginal improvement of social financing data is optimistic about the sustainability of infrastructure performance.
(Investment Consultant Gu registered investment consultant certificate number: S026066 1 1020066)
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