However, he also said that because the market has fully responded to the supply pressure before, the increase in supply has little impact on the market; In order to cooperate with the issuance of special government bonds, the central bank may need to increase the frequency of RRR cuts, or consider allowing banks that buy special government bonds to use them to offset the deposit reserve.
"If the central bank does not have substantive cooperation policies in the future, it is expected to bring more negative impacts to the market." Wei Qi said.
Today, after the special national debt and local government special debt quota were announced today, China's national debt spot futures strengthened sharply, and the national debt futures closed up across the board.
10 and 5-year main contracts both rose by more than 0.6%, the highest since May 12; The yield of inter-bank spot bonds has fallen sharply. The yield of 10-year treasury bonds fell by more than 8bp and returned to below 2.60% again. The yield of 5-year treasury bonds fell by more than 10bp.
Kiyong Seong, strategist of Socié té Gé né rale, suggested buying China 10-year bonds with a yield target of 2.30%, believing that further policy relaxation would bring the greatest benefits to it. The issuance amount of special national debt is at the lower end of market expectation, and the front end of national debt has included this in the price.
"In the rest of this year, the uncertainty of bond supply has been significantly reduced. The scale of supply is still large, but the medium-term risk return of doing more is better. "
Recently, seriously influenced by market sentiment, treasury bonds futures continued the callback trend. The interest rate of 10-year treasury bonds rose rapidly, hitting 2.8% in intraday trading. The adjustment range of 10-year treasury bond futures is obviously larger than that of short-term and medium-term varieties, and the yield curve of spot bonds remains relatively steep.
After the recent rapid adjustment, the market once again has different views on the trend of interest rates.
Yuekai Securities said that the central bank will definitely pay more attention to wide credit in the future, and the most friendly monetary environment for the bond market may have passed. Under the combination of wide currency and wide credit, credit bonds may be a better choice, and the unilateral downward trend of interest rates is difficult to reproduce.
Jianghai securities Qu Qing believes that, on the one hand, the intention of fiscal policy is to support the economy, not to promote the V-shaped recovery of the economy through government leverage. The downside risk of superimposed external demand still exists, so don't have too high expectations for economic recovery; On the other hand, the strength of fiscal policy will inevitably depend on debt financing support such as deficit expansion and the issuance of special national debt, and monetary easing in the future can still be expected. Therefore, the downward trend of medium-term interest rates has not changed.