Regarding this issue, Bian Xiao thinks that the price of corn 220 1 main contract is likely to fall next. First of all, from a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the K-line of the main contract price of corn of 220 1 has just formed the "Twilight Star" K-line combination, which indicates that the upward trend of the main contract price of corn of 220 1 will end.
According to the market chart, from September 22nd to October 26th, 2 1 trading days, the contract price of corn 220 1 main contract rose by 7.87% 192 yuan/ton.
At the same time, the three-line hook of KDJ indicator is downward, the short position is arranged, and the red energy column of MACD indicator is also "shrinking". These are all signals that the price of corn 220 1 main contract is about to start a downward mode.
In addition, this wave of increase in the main corn contract of 220 1 was also suppressed by the 60-week moving average of 2,600 yuan/ton. That is to say, no matter from the daily chart or the weekly chart, the signal of the decline of the main contract of corn 220 1 is very obvious, that is, the price of the main contract of corn 220/kloc-0 fluctuates in different periods.
Secondly, judging from the recent trend of the US dollar index and the economic data released by the United States, the US dollar index continues to rise, and the probability of returning to above 94.000 is very high.
Next, if the US dollar index continues to rise, the main contract price of corn 220 1 will inevitably fall under pressure. 654381October 27th According to the market chart, the US dollar index has been rising continuously recently. From165438 on October 25th to165438 on October 26th, the US dollar index rose by 362 points in two trading days.
Some time ago, the US dollar index plummeted for two reasons: 1, and non-American countries raised interest rates one after another, which made the US dollar index fall under pressure. 2. The "rising" of inflation in the United States has raised the expectation of economic slowdown in the United States.
However, the impact of these factors on the US dollar index is not as "bad" as expected, but it also enhances the safe-haven demand of the US dollar. Therefore, the US dollar index has continued to rise recently.
1June13rd, the seasonally adjusted CPI annual rate announced by the United States at the end of September was not only "higher" than the market expectation, but also increased by 0. 1 percentage point from the previous value.
In addition, the market predicted that the problem of high inflation in the United States had "peaked" in July, because the seasonally adjusted CPI announced by the United States at the end of August was 5.3%, down 0. 1 percentage point from the previous month. However, in September, the annual rate of CPI in the United States not only did not decrease further, but increased by 0. 1 percentage point compared with last month.
This makes the high inflation problem in the United States "peak" misjudged, thus forcing the US dollar index to continue to fall. According to the market chart, from 10, 13 to 10, the US dollar index fell by 933 points in six trading days.
The rising inflation rate will not only increase the cost of a country's enterprises, but also "reduce" a country's consumer demand and ultimately "slow down" a country's economic growth.
However, the recent economic data released by the United States seems to have broken this pessimistic market sentiment. For example, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index released by the United States in 10 yesterday was not only "higher" than market expectations, but also soared compared with the previous value.
The data shows that 5438+00 Richmond Fed's manufacturing index in June is -3, with an expected value of 5 and a previous value of 12.
Correspondingly, the business activity index of Dallas Fed in 10 released by the United States the day before yesterday also rose sharply. The data shows that the business activity index of Dallas Fed in the United States10 in May 438+14.6, with the expected value of 6.2 and the previous value of 4.6.
During the period of 10, both the business activity index and the manufacturing index of the United States soared sharply, which shows that the momentum of American economic recovery is very strong.
At the same time, the real estate industry data released by the United States yesterday not only "lowered" the market expectation that domestic inflation continued to rise in the United States, but also showed the "strong" trend of demand for new houses in the United States.
The data shows that the annual rate of house price index in SP/CS 20 big cities in the United States in August was 19.7%, the expected value was 20%, and the previous value was 20%. From the data point of view, the annual rate of house price index in 20 big cities of SP/CS in the United States in August was not only "lower" than the market expectation, but also decreased by 0.3 percentage points from the previous value, which may also alleviate the high inflation pressure in the United States.
In addition, the total sales of new homes in the United States in September was 800,000, with an expected value of 760,000 and a previous value of 702,000. Nowadays, not only the high inflation pressure in the United States has eased, but also the safe-haven demand for the dollar is heating up.
Some time ago, the Bank of New Zealand, as a developed economy, took the lead in raising interest rates and had a strong desire to continue raising interest rates. However, its exchange rate did not continue to appreciate because of its monetary tightening policy, and recently it began to depreciate again.
According to the market chart, from 65438+1October 2 1 day to 65438+1October 27 14: 35, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the New Zealand dollar rose by 56 points in five trading days, that is, the New Zealand dollar depreciated by 0.40%.
Similarly, the Bank of England, which was willing to raise interest rates, failed to keep the pound appreciating. According to the market chart, from 65438+1October 2 1 day to 65438+1October 27 14: 35, the exchange rate of the United States against the British pound rose by 24 points, that is, the British pound depreciated by 0.33%.
In this regard, EbrahimRahbari, global head of foreign exchange strategy of Citigroup 10 Group, said: "The accidents caused by slowing economic growth may exceed those caused by rising inflation, and then we will fall into such a situation: the central bank will become a hawk and have to become a dove again in a year or so."
That is to say, at present, non-American countries have joined the tide of "raising interest rates" in order to resist high inflation, which seems a bit premature. Its harm to the economy may be more serious than the high inflation problem, and it will also heat up the safe-haven demand of the US dollar.
Finally, the price of the main starch contract 2 1 1 1 is still falling further today. From June 26th 10 to1October 27th11,the prices of the main contracts fell in two trading days.
From a technical point of view, on the daily chart, the price of the main starch contract 211soared some time ago, which led to a "big" rising slope. Once the profit-seeking mood of starch bulls heats up, the price of starch main contract 2 1 1 will be ".
The market chart shows that the price of the main starch contract 2 111rose by 470 yuan/ton from September/kloc-0 to October 25/21/ton, with an increase of 16.76.
If the main contract price of starch 2 1 1 1 falls sharply in the future, the purchasing demand of corn by starch factories will be "weakened", because the purchasing of corn will increase the raw material inventory of starch factories, occupy funds, and thus compress their profits, leading to a decrease in the demand for corn by starch factories, forcing corn prices to fall.
Therefore, Bian Xiao believes that in the short term, under the joint action of these factors, the contract price of corn 220 1 main force is likely to fall. What do you think of this? Is this consistent with Bian Xiao's view?