① supply factor, ② demand factor and ③ short-term oil price factor.
1. Factors affecting crude oil futures supply
The supply factors affecting crude oil futures mainly include world oil reserves and stones.
Oil supply structure and oil production cost.
In the 20th century, European and American multinational oil companies pioneered capital operation.
The new round of mergers and acquisitions has made the concentration of the world petrochemical industry higher and higher.
Tall man. With the control of global oil resources, technology and market by petrochemical giants
The further strengthening of control, the development and competition of the world petrochemical industry and
Fluctuations in oil prices have a far-reaching impact. In addition, oil is produced into
This will also have an impact on oil supply. As non-renewable oil
Energy, its production cost will affect producers' inter-temporal production and distribution decisions.
Policies, which in turn affect market supply, indirectly cause oil price fluctuations.
Move it. The lower limit of world oil price is generally composed of stones in high-cost areas.
Oil production determines, and oil in low-cost areas determines price fluctuations.
Range.
The supply characteristics of the world oil market also have a great influence on the oil supply. At present, the suppliers of the world oil market mainly include the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and non-OPEC countries, which have most of the proven oil reserves in the world, and their production and price policies have a great influence on the world oil supply and price. Non-OPEC countries mainly exist as price recipients and adjust production according to prices. However, since 2002, stimulated by strong world oil demand and high oil prices, OPEC's output has surged, and the remaining crude oil production capacity has dropped sharply from 5.6 million barrels per day in 2002 to about 6.5438+0.4 million barrels per day in 2006. The capacity utilization rate is higher than 90%, and the ability to stabilize oil prices by increasing production is weakened. Forcing market participants to establish commercial inventory as a buffer to deal with risks, while inventory demand
In turn, it will stimulate oil prices to rise.