Currency is unreliable, so buying gold is more reliable.
The average price of gold in 2009 increased by 12% compared with 2008. With the repeated economic recovery, Russian and other emerging markets' stock markets rose by more than 100%, and China's stock market also rose by nearly 80%. The volatility of financial market and commodity market far exceeds that of gold market.
March third. The New York Mercantile Exchange April gold futures contract closed up slightly by 0.5% to 1 143.30 yuan per ounce.
After gold hit an all-time high of 1.226 USD/oz on February 3rd. Long and short hold their own words. The market has the same view on the gold market outlook.
Watching a lot of people say. As a "safe haven and hell" hard currency, gold will not change under the risk aversion, inflation expectations and the reconstruction of the international monetary system. The price of gold is expected to climb to $2,000 an ounce. If you believe this judgment, the price of gold is still halfway up the mountain. "
The empty side believes that. In terms of yield, the price of gold has climbed to the highest level in a decade. Can't compete with stocks and other commodities. When the Dubai crisis broke out, only the US dollar and US Treasury bonds became safe-haven assets, while the price of gold fell instead of rising, indicating that gold could not be used as a safe-haven asset. In 2009, compared with oil and stock market returns, gold was not dominant.
Judging from the historical trend of gold price in the past hundred years. Gold will be forgotten. During the 20 years from 1980 to 2000, if you believe that the low inflation and high growth in the past will continue in the next decade. The price of gold has fallen by nearly half. However, if you believe that I am facing a more turbulent decade, or stagflation, or inflation, or deflation, no matter how uncomfortable the economic situation is, gold has the opportunity to wash away the shame of 20 years, and the gold bull market in the past decade will push to another *
But ... gold is like chicken ribs now. In the eyes of some short-term operators.
Until the peak of 65438+ February 3 last year, a wave of too violent short-selling rose almost consumed all the energy of the bulls. It is advisable to wait and see. "This is the popular view of market participants recently. This is an awkward moment.
Central bank absorbs gold
Central banks around the world are the main sellers and buyers of gold. When it is suspected that the dollar will fluctuate temporarily. Only gold. Among the $5 trillion worth of foreign exchange reserves in Asia, countries have no choice but the euro. About three-quarters of them are in US dollars. Among the top ten foreign exchange reserves, the top eight countries are all located in Asia.
Zhu Bin, director of nanhua futures Gold Research Institute, thinks. This includes the central banks of China, Japanese, Russian, Indian, Singaporean, Brazilian and Korean. At present, the proportion of gold in the foreign exchange reserves of emerging markets is about 2%, far below the global average of 10%. In contrast, the proportion of gold in international storage is less than 10%, and the central bank can increase the gold position. The total gold storage in the United States has reached more than 8,000 tons, accounting for 76% of foreign exchange reserves, and most of the gold storage in European countries has reached more than 40%.
Central Bank Gold Sale Agreement (CBGA). Setting a sales ceiling at the end of the day limits countries' buying and selling of gold. China has been a net buyer of gold since the second half of 2006. This completely subverts the convention that central banks have been net sellers since 1988. CBGA1999 On September 26th, 14, European central banks and the European Central Bank signed agreements respectively.
The World Gold Council (WGC) recently released a speech on the trend of gold demand in 2009. Compared with the five-year average of 444 tons in 2008, the official net gold sold in 2009 was 44 tons. It shows that the central bank continues to absorb gold.
CBGA 15 European Central Bank sells gold sporadically. European countries will reduce the annual sales of gold in the next five years on the basis of the first two agreements? Not more than 500 tons to not more than 400 tons. In fact, the process of selling gold has obviously accelerated. In the third gold sales agreement signed in 2009. After the financial crisis, the United States borrowed a lot and was heavily in debt, but did not sell 1 gram of gold. Some European countries, such as Germany, France and other countries with large gold reserves, have certainly been greatly impacted. Instead of selling gold, they increased their holdings. Some countries in the Middle East are also increasing their holdings of gold from time to time. The gold trading agreement actually no longer exists.
June 5438, 2009+10 month. Sold 200 tons of gold to India at a low price of $0/054 per ounce/kloc. Therefore, the proportion of gold in the bank's foreign exchange reserves rose from 3.6% to nearly *%, which stimulated the soaring gold market. Many merchants used to regard this price as the market reserve price. Earlier, the IMF announced that it had sold 403.3 tons of gold in the open market.
Since this century. 200 1, from 394 tons to 500 tons, China adjusts and upgrades its gold reserves from time to time. It increased to 600 tons in 2003. In 2009, China government leaked 1054 tons of gold storage, which shocked the whole gold market. China's foreign exchange reserves are more than 2 trillion US dollars, but the proportion of gold reserves in foreign exchange is only 1.6%. It is speculated that the China government will continue to buy gold.
The price of gold will reach $2000 overnight. A market person joked.
Suppose the Bank of China hints at buying.
The Bank of China is clearly aware of this. People close to the central bank analyzed this reporter. Then the trend of gold price should be downward. Judging from historical prices, it is assumed that the sober momentum of the global economy has been established. It is not impossible to fall below 1000 or even $800.
The subsequent achievement is when will gold peak and fall back?
So, 40 years of gold
Gold cannot be completely explained by wealth effect. People buy gold for another reason: distrust of currency. Liu Yuhui (blog), director of China Economic Evaluation Center, Institute of Finance, China Academy of Social Sciences, thinks.
Judging from the economic data of the United States. This period is the best period for the gold proposal, and 12 years after 1968 is the period of economic stagflation. The price of gold dropped from $35/oz from time to time to $850/oz of 1 980 and 1, and the converted compound annual yield was about 37%, which exceeded the yields of bonds, stocks, commodities and cash in the same period.
During this period, the dollar crisis occurred frequently. 1973 The worst post-war economic crisis broke out in the United States. The implication of gold is essentially to restore the inflation rate, accompanied by inflation as high as 7. 1%. This stage. Assuming that the inflation rate in the United States at that time was 7. 1%, the price of gold was actually higher than the current price of $0/100 per ounce. Liu Yuhui said.
Since the all-time high of 1980. This made gold once fall out of favor in the market. In the same period, gold has fallen for 20 years. Gold has its own limitations-no commodity value, no interest, anti-theft and high storage cost. The global economy has entered an obvious long-term recession stage. The GDP of the United States has maintained a high growth rate of 3.5%, and the strong dollar has become the object of being chased. The price of gold once fell to an all-time low of $255, with a drop of 48.39% and an annual yield of -3.2%.
However, with the bursting of the 200 1 American Internet bubble and the outbreak of "9 1 1". From the beginning, the market was worried about inflation, and finally the Federal Reserve implemented a loose commodity spring policy. Finally, people looked for new commodities to hedge their value in spring, and gold began a brilliant bull market. Gold price rebounded from the bottom at 200 1 and entered the rising channel in 2003. In 2005, it peaked at $500 per ounce, but the increase was not as good as that of commodities such as oil.
After the American financial crisis broke out in 2008. The safe-haven function of gold flashed at the end. In 2008, the Federal Reserve's rescue policy intensified the market's expectation of the depreciation of the US dollar. The indexes of commodities, stocks and bonds fell by more than 40%, while the price of gold rose by 6%, indicating that it is more like money than ordinary commodities. The correlation with other commodities is very low, which is a rare sight. Marcu Grubb, Managing Director of WGC Investment Research and Promotion Department, pointed out.
International gold prices have soared. Gold fell by 4.5 times, and in 2009, it broke through the integer mark of $0,000,/kloc-0,654,38 and/kloc-0,200 per ounce like a mad cow. A short period of eight years from 200 1 to 2009. The compound annual rate of return is about 20.7%, catching up with the representativeness of commodities and stocks.