Egg prices that have been rising for several days have also stabilized, and may face the risk of callback next.
After a long period of downturn, the price of peanuts began to rebound recently, and the price of mainstream producing areas increased greatly.
The price of urea worried the old farmers. What is the specific situation?
Pig prices plummeted.
The recent hog price, as we predicted at the end of 65438+February, not only failed to usher in a strong rise, but may even suffer a "collapse". The live pig price system shows that after entering 65438+ 10, the live pig price really fell, showing a "crash" market. Except for Liaoning and Shandong, which rose by 0.05 yuan respectively, and Heilongjiang and Jilin remained stable, other regions fell across the board. Among them, North China decreased by 0. 125-0.2 yuan, East China by 0. 15-0.25 yuan, Central China by 0. 175-0.4 yuan, South China by 0.5-0.55 yuan and Southwest China by 0.35-0.5 yuan.
Pig prices plummeted for two reasons. One is that the supply of live pigs exceeds the demand, and the collectivized pig farms begin to attack the annual slaughter task in the new year. This year's Spring Festival is advanced, leaving farmers with a short slaughter window. Small and medium-sized farms are worried that the price of pigs will fall further after the year, and they will grab the slaughter before the year.
Secondly, pork consumption is sluggish and difficult to change. The demand for bacon is coming to an end. Although the Spring Festival is good, the convergence has begun to exert its strength. However, due to the large number of infected people, the recovery of pork consumption demand is limited.
In the future, pork consumption will continue to recover, but the increase of pig supply is still above the recovery of pork consumption demand, and pig prices are still difficult to change the downward trend.
However, after the Spring Festival, the pig price is likely to change the normal state of decline in previous years and usher in a rising market:
1. Recently, the breeding end has been accelerated, and the pig production capacity will be overdrawn after the year.
2. After the year, the peak of infection has passed one after another. With the resumption of catering, the start of school for students and the return of workers, the demand for pork is expected to increase.
Egg prices rise and change.
Egg prices, which have been rising for about a week, have recently stopped rising and stabilized. Compared with the previous day, the price of eggs in different places was flat, and the price of eggs in producing areas was stable at 9. 15 yuan/kg.
Among them, Beijing Xinfadi is 208 yuan /44 kg, Shanghai Common Brown Shell Egg 130 yuan /27.5 kg, Shandong Jining and Wenshang Brown Shell Egg 142 yuan /30 kg, and Hubei Xishui Powder Egg 2 19 yuan /45 kg.
Including Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, Jilin, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Anhui, Hubei and other places, the price of eggs was generally stable and fluctuated.
The failure of egg prices to continue the rising market, I think, mainly has the following logic:
1. Although the stock of laying hens is low at present, the stock at all levels is high due to the low price in the early stage.
2. Spring Festival is the traditional off-season of egg market.
3. Students have a holiday, workers return home, and the demand for terminals such as restaurants and canteens is sluggish.
4. Practitioners generally lack confidence in the domestic sales of eggs, which is bad for the price of eggs.
Weak demand is bad for egg prices, superimposed inventory is at a high level, and supply is also bad for egg prices. Before the Spring Festival, the price of eggs stabilized and there was room for further decline, which continued the weak market as a whole.
Peanuts began to rebound.
According to statistics, during the New Year holiday, the domestic spot price of peanuts rose slightly, and in some areas it rose slightly 100 yuan/ton, and mainstream futures contracts also rebounded.
At present, the main transaction price of oily rice in oil plants is 9900- 10200 yuan/ton, the unified price of Liaoning Baisha is 10400- 10500 yuan/ton, and the unified price of Henan Baisha is10600-107000.
Peanut prices can start a rebound, which I think is related to the following price logic:
1, New Year's Day and Spring Festival are favorable, and peanut consumption demand is increasing. Especially near the Spring Festival, some families begin to prepare new year's goods, and the holiday just needs to support peanut prices.
2. The improvement of market transactions has pushed up the price of peanuts.
3. This year's Spring Festival is earlier, the pre-holiday stocking time of enterprises is shorter, the pre-holiday trading of oil plants is coming to an end, and enterprises with insufficient inventory raise prices to purchase supplementary inventory.
However, the increase in peanut prices is difficult to sustain, and it is not optimistic in the short and medium term.
In the short term, the stocking of oil plants is coming to an end, which has limited boosting effect on the market. With the end of the preparation period for the New Year, the demand for edible peanuts will return to indifference.
In the medium and long term, both the demand for edible peanuts and the demand for food and beverage consumption of peanut oil are not as good as the same period of last year, which will weaken the willingness of downstream to stock up before the holiday and is not conducive to the rebound of peanut prices.
The price of urea worried the old farmer.
The price of urea worries the old farmers, because the price of urea has gone up again. It is reported that the domestic urea market continues a slight upward trend, and the price of urea in mainstream areas is raised by 10-60 yuan/ton.
The prices of urea in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Anhui and Liaoning all increased, with Anhui having the largest increase, reaching 30-60 yuan/ton.
I think there are several logics for urea price increase:
1 The demand for green manure in Jiangsu and Anhui supported the price of urea.
2. With the fall of urea price in the early stage, the enthusiasm of taking goods in the downstream increased, which boosted the price of urea in the surrounding areas.
3, plate factory, compound fertilizer factory procurement on demand, sporadic small orders to follow up.
At present, the price of urea has increased slightly in some areas, and urea manufacturers have no obvious pressure to take delivery. The old farmers are worried that the price of urea will continue to rise.
But what I want to say is, don't worry too much. Considering the recovery of gas enterprises in the early stage, urea is at a high level every day, the supply of urea is relatively abundant, and the futures price of urea is going down. It is expected that the spot price of urea will not increase much, with a high probability of a narrow increase.