The reporter observed that in the face of the current market conditions, many farmers reduced their production capacity for the winter, and even some aquaculture enterprises chose to survive with their arms broken.
The insiders believe that under the pressure of three big mountains, such as rising international food prices, intermittent oversupply of pigs, and weak market consumption due to the epidemic caused by restrictions on the export of grain and oil products in some countries and regions, the pain of the pig industry will still exist in the near future, and it is necessary to prevent the rapid decline of pig production capacity in a short period of time and prevent a hard landing.
Prices continue to fall.
Farmer: It costs more than 700 yuan to sell a pig.
Over the past year, the price of live pigs has dropped from a high of 10 per catty to the present 6 yuan per catty, and the annual loss of live pigs is 4 to 5 million yuan.
Zhang Xinwen, the undertaker of Mingtai Breeding Technology Co., Ltd. in Nanchang County, Jiangxi Province, is a post-90s pig farmer. He said that the price of live pigs fluctuates greatly, and many farmers around him are preparing for the winter.
In the depressed market, some pig breeding enterprises choose to break their arms to survive.
In contrast to the decline in the price of live pigs after the Spring Festival, many farmers report that the cost of pig breeding is rising.
Driven by relevant policies and market conditions, departmental farmers have entered the track of de-capacity.
The reporter's investigation found that in this market fluctuation, some farmers are also optimistic about the long-term trend of pig prices.
Xie Cuiping, a pig farmer in Ningdu County, Ganzhou City, Jiangxi Province, can breed more than 3000 sows 1200. When the market is bad recently, a few low-quality sows will be laid off, but they will be introduced soon to keep the scope.
Xie Cuiping said that under the continuous squeeze of low pig price and high cost, the weaker subjects gradually withdrew from the market. With the continuous reduction of pig production capacity, raising pigs is still profitable in the long run.
He calculated that on the basis of maintaining stable production capacity, he would constantly optimize the structure and enhance the epidemic prevention ability to survive the relatively difficult period of pig production and operation in the near future.
The second brother has three mountains on his shoulders, and the pain of the industry still exists recently.
The industry believes that factors such as rising international food prices, intermittent oversupply of live pigs and insufficient market consumption continue to put pressure on pig prices, and the pain in the pig industry will still exist in the near future.
-second brother's food expenses will continue to rise with the international situation.
At present, the shock of global agricultural products market has intensified.
The price of wheat futures on the Chicago Board of Trade has risen by more than 70% this year, reaching a new high since March 2008.
Corn and soybean futures prices have risen by about 30% this year, and exceeded 25%, reaching new highs since 20 13 and 20 12.
-the production and supply of live pigs are sufficient, and the staged surplus is more obvious.
According to industry experts, since the first half of 20021,the supply of live pigs in China has continuously rebounded sharply.
According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first half of 20021,the number of live pigs raised by 34% year-on-year, the number of fertile sows monitored at fixed points increased by 30% year-on-year, and the number of live pigs increased by 29% year-on-year, reaching 439 million.
It will take time to digest the ability of this department.
According to the monitoring of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the slaughter of live pigs nationwide increased by 23.6% in June and 10 this year, and the slaughter of live pigs in February increased by 8.2% year-on-year.
By the end of February, there were 42.682 million fertile sows in China, down 0.5 1% from the previous month, still higher than the standard number of 4 1 10,000, and the production capacity was periodically surplus.
-the diet structure is changing slowly, and the cost of live pigs is relatively low under the epidemic situation.
During the interview, industry insiders and departmental experts believed that with the development of economy and society, the choice of catering doubled, and the proportion of pork in residents' dietary structure was diluted by other meats. In addition, the first half of each year is a traditional off-season, and the catering industry is affected by the epidemic. The consumption demand of live pigs is relatively weak.
Enhance the hard power of the industry
Strictly prevent hard landing of pig production capacity
Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, believes that in 2022, it is more important to consolidate the consequences of early resumption of production and avoid fluctuations in output and prices brought about by excessive periods.
The insiders also suggest that for the capacity information such as the number of farmers and the number of fertile sows within the scope, it is necessary to continuously track and monitor, and enhance the transparency of information to prevent farmers from having the mentality of clearing the warehouse and waiting for the price, further aggravating the contradiction between supply and demand of production and marketing, leading to the reduction of the risk resistance coefficient of the pig market.
We should guide pig farmers to follow the trend in the era of loose market supply through objective and real-time information announcement, so as to effectively reduce the production capacity of pigs.
Fu Jingsheng and other grass-roots farmers show that it is difficult to prevent the fluctuation of supply and demand situation and pig cycle, but it is also necessary to stabilize the basic production capacity by adhering to long-term support policies to avoid the ups and downs of pig production.
In particular, we must adhere to long-term and stable supporting policies such as land, environmental protection and loans to help farmers tide over the difficulties and avoid infringement on the basic production capacity of the industry.
Grassroots cadres in some departments believe that it is a critical time for the transformation and upgrading of the pig industry, which is not only a risk for farmers, but also an opportunity to break the cocoon into a butterfly.
In particular, it is necessary to strengthen the supervision of quarantine, transportation, slaughter and other links, promote the support of grass-roots animal epidemic prevention system in a normal way, and strive to improve farmers' own epidemic prevention strength.