On December 28th, asset management association of china said that it would suspend the filing of the asset management plan for ordinary residential real estate projects that directly or indirectly invested in hot cities where real estate prices rose too fast.

The 16 cities explicitly pointed out by the Fund Industry Association include: Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Xiamen, Hefei, Nanjing, Suzhou, Wuxi, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Wuhan, Zhengzhou, Jinan and Chengdu.

the day before, the asset management plan was the main source of funds for real estate enterprises, and most of these funds were used for land acquisition.

Kerui data shows that by the end of November 216, the amount of land newly added by 4 typical real estate enterprises had reached 1,212.218 billion yuan, and the amount of land newly added by many real estate enterprises had reached a record high. However, according to the introduction of big coffee in the industry, behind the record land transaction price record, the proportion of self-owned funds of housing enterprises has dropped to a very low level. Some enterprises take 95% of their land for various leveraged financing, and their own funds are less than 5%.

Therefore, the research of Yiju Research Institute pointed out that after the regulation of the property market in October, the capital channels for housing enterprises to acquire land were tightened one by one, and the funds for developers were no longer relaxed for the first time in November this year. Therefore, next year, developers in the land market will no longer be as bullish as this year, and even the number of land withdrawal cases will increase next year.

the case of land withdrawal will reappear next year!

on December 27th, Country Garden won two pure residential plots in Fengxian Park, Shanghai Lingang, with a premium rate of only 3%-5.1%.

this is in sharp contrast to the scene that land transfer often exceeds 1% in the middle of this year. We can see a signal from here-the land market will be very deserted next year! A big reason behind this is that the pipeline for blood transfusion by developers through the asset management plan may be "cut off".

At the end of last year, banks, trusts, fund subsidiaries and private equity funds carried out investment and loan integration business, participated in land auction, and then handed it over to real estate enterprises for development, which is extremely common in the financial industry (which is why the aforementioned big coffee said that this year, real estate enterprises have only 5% of their own funds).

However, since October, trust funds and insurance funds have been explicitly forbidden to pay land deposits, deposits and subsequent land transfer payments, and five channels, such as banks, trusts and asset management, have been blocked. It is considered that the supervision of the flow of bank funds is not superficial, and banks can be prevented from transferring funds to land funds.

It can be predicted that the land market will be cold next year, and developers will have a good chance to bargain-hunting or merger. The transaction of two homesteads in Fengxian Lingang is only 3%-5% higher than the reserve price, which is the best example of this trend.

You know, before Shanghai announced the land use plan up to 22, the demand for state-owned construction land was negative growth, and all enterprises were very hungry for land. Ouyang Jie, author of "Ouyang Xiansheng" in WeChat official account and senior vice president of Xincheng Holdings, once wrote that at present, the land reserve of the top 5 real estate enterprises in Shanghai is only one or two projects. If the land reserve cannot be replenished in time, it means that they will withdraw from Shanghai.

after the cold wave in the land market, the price reduction in the new housing market will also appear. Some developers with greater financial pressure may even start selling at a price lower than the previous period. Some properties may even be sold at cost or even at a loss.

developers have the last chance to "replenish blood" during the Spring Festival!

However, people in the industry said that the cash flow of large housing enterprises is very good, and the high-priced land occupies little company funds, so the capital problem is not great.

Although some developers with weak financial strength and more loans will have great pressure on the capital chain next year; Housing enterprises with poor strength may withdraw their land or seek funds because they can't pay the land. However, some small and medium-sized housing enterprises with high debt leverage have already resolved their contradictions in advance through cooperation, and there will not be too many housing enterprises with problems in the capital chain.

in what ways?

It is understood that some large developers are financing through self-built financial control platforms. Through the acquisition of projects by private equity funds, the equity of the project will generally be set up in many layers, but the core is the developer itself, which means that the funds are still in the hands of the developer.

another way is that the major shareholder or actual controller of the company and a third party institution set up a parent fund.

in general, the major shareholders and actual controllers of a project company send funds to their subsidiaries, and the parent company comes forward to invest the money in the industries concerned by the parent company or invest in the equity of the parent company.

then the parent company transfuses the funds of the subsidiary company, which is equivalent to the investment and development of the company's major shareholder, which belongs to the internal behavior of the enterprise.

besides, housing enterprises can also seek some powerful financial investors to enter the project company in the form of equity through non-public offering of limited partnership funds.

However, these practices may also be "blocked" after the two sessions next year!

CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection website reported on December 29th that the party group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development of China mentioned in its report on the inspection and rectification that it would continuously strengthen the regulation of the real estate market. The real estate market is related to the national economy and people's livelihood. The Party Group of the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development attaches great importance to the regulation of the real estate market, actively conducts research, pays close attention to controlling housing prices in hot cities, destocking third-and fourth-tier cities and counties, and standardizing and rectifying market order.

This means that the regulatory policies may be upgraded at any time, and all kinds of practices of "scratching the ball" will be regarded as policy loopholes by the regulatory authorities, which will be standardized, corrected and filled.

as Sun Hongbin said, we must not take chances in regulation. If you can take cash, take as much cash as possible; If you need to reduce the price, reduce it quickly!

(The above answer was issued on December 3th, 216, and the current relevant housing purchase policy should be based on the actual situation)

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