driven by the international solar photovoltaic power generation market and supported by the Renewable Energy Law and supporting policies, China's solar power generation industry has grown rapidly, and has established a good industrial base for solar photovoltaic cell manufacturing, forming an international competitive advantage in technology and cost. Diversified solar power generation markets such as large-scale photovoltaic power stations, photo-thermal power stations, distributed photovoltaic power generation and off-grid photovoltaic systems have been launched. A market competition mechanism conducive to cost reduction has been initially established, and the cost of solar power generation has been rapidly reduced, which has the conditions for large-scale application in China.
As the fastest-growing economy in the world, China's technology and application in photovoltaic power generation are only at the downstream level in the world. The main reason is that the polysilicon purification technology needed by solar photovoltaic cells has not been mastered in China, which is monopolized by large foreign enterprises, so the cost of producing solar photovoltaic cells in China is very high. The cost of photovoltaic power generation is several times that of general power generation, so it cannot be widely popularized. Due to the increasing international demand for solar photovoltaic cells, more and more domestic enterprises have become the OEM factories of photovoltaic cells, and take this opportunity to grow and develop. The new energy policy of the United States provides a good opportunity for domestic photovoltaic enterprises. Some domestic industry leaders have begun to set up subsidiaries in the United States to contract photovoltaic power generation projects and actively enter the local photovoltaic power generation market.
in the long run, if solar photovoltaic power generation technology is not widely used in China, the energy problems encountered by China's economic development will become more and more serious, which will surely become a huge obstacle to China's economic development. China is one of the countries with abundant solar energy resources. China has a desert area of 1.8 million square kilometers, mainly distributed in the northwest region with abundant light resources. A 1 MW photovoltaic array can be installed in an area of 1 square kilometer, which can generate 15 million kWh of electricity every year; If 1% of the desert is exploited, it can generate electricity equivalent to the whole year of China in 23. In China's northern and coastal areas, the annual sunshine amount is more than 2, hours, and Hainan is more than 2,4 hours. It is a veritable country with solar energy resources. It can be seen that China has the geographical conditions for the wide application of photovoltaic power generation technology.
China government has also issued some policies on developing new energy sources. Among them, the recently issued Notice on Implementing the Golden Sun Demonstration Project is the most striking. The notice focuses on supporting the construction of demonstration projects such as grid-connected photovoltaic power generation, independent photovoltaic power generation and large-scale grid-connected photovoltaic power generation on the user side, as well as the industrialization of key technologies of photovoltaic power generation such as silicon material purification and grid-connected operation and related basic capacity building, and determines the upper limit of unit investment subsidies for various demonstration projects according to the advanced technology and market development. For grid-connected photovoltaic power generation projects, in principle, 5% of the total investment of photovoltaic power generation system and its supporting transmission and distribution projects will be subsidized; Among them, the independent photovoltaic power generation system in remote areas without electricity is subsidized by 7% of the total investment; For photovoltaic power generation key technology industrialization and basic capacity building projects, support is mainly provided through interest subsidies and subsidies.
This policy has promoted China to become a powerful country of solar photovoltaic power generation from the OEM factory of photovoltaic cells. For this historical opportunity, the challenges faced by domestic PV companies are actually more severe. Only by constantly improving the quality of photovoltaic products and opening up domestic and international sales channels can we make better use of opportunities and make enterprises bigger and stronger.
solar energy is renewable and environmentally friendly, which makes many countries, including China, focus on solar energy as a new energy industry. Chinese mainland's photovoltaic products are mainly supplied to European and American markets, and the domestic market share is very small. Due to the increasing market demand in Europe and America, China's photovoltaic industry has achieved rapid development, with an average annual growth rate of more than 4% in the last five years. Under the background of further support from policies, the growth prospect of photovoltaic industry in the future will be broader.
from upstream to downstream, the photovoltaic power generation industry chain mainly includes polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery chips and battery components. In the industrial chain, from polysilicon to battery components, the technical threshold for production is getting lower and lower, and accordingly, the number of companies is increasing. Therefore, the profits of the whole photovoltaic industry chain are mainly concentrated in the upstream polysilicon production, and the profitability of upstream enterprises is obviously better than that of downstream enterprises.
At present, the profit from polysilicon production in Chinese mainland accounts for the highest proportion in the total profit of final battery module products, reaching about 52%; The profit of battery component production accounts for about 18%; The profits from the production of battery chips and silicon chips account for about 17% and 13% respectively.
Since 28, the price of polysilicon has started to drop significantly. Up to now, the domestic spot price of polysilicon has dropped from the previous 5 USD/kg to 1-15 USD/kg. The data in 212 is 18~3 USD/kg.
The production capacity of polysilicon is expanding too fast, and the relatively slow demand growth is the main factor leading to the price drop. According to iSuppi's forecast, the global polysilicon supply will double in 29, while the demand will increase by only 34%. Therefore, the price of polysilicon is likely to fall further. ISuppi even said that by 21, the spot price of polysilicon will drop to $1/kg, which will greatly reduce the profitability of polysilicon suppliers.
the falling price of polysilicon will increase the profits of battery manufacturers, but there are also great risks in the pure silicon wafer business. No matter the upstream polysilicon supplier or the downstream battery chip manufacturer, there is no technical problem in manufacturing silicon chips. When upstream and downstream enter the silicon wafer business at the same time, the profit of the silicon wafer business chain is greatly squeezed.
China's photovoltaic industry has formed a relatively complete industrial chain. In 29, the output of polysilicon in China exceeded 2, tons, and the output of solar cells exceeded 4, MW, making it the largest battery country in global solar for three consecutive years.
In May p>21, China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance was established, attracting 22 domestic photovoltaic backbone enterprises, industry associations and research institutions to join. China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance focuses on guiding industry joint innovation, promoting application and standardizing development, studying various policies to encourage the development of photovoltaic industry, and increasing support for technological transformation and industrial upgrading of enterprises. China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance will devote itself to integrating industrial resources, promoting structural adjustment, changing development mode, enhancing industry cohesion and expanding international influence and competitiveness. All 31 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China have listed photovoltaic industry as an emerging industry that gives priority to supporting development; Among the 6 cities, 3 have developed photovoltaic solar energy industry, and more than 1 have built photovoltaic industrial bases; The global polysilicon production is 2, tons, and China accounts for nearly 9, tons, but it does not master the core technology; The production capacity is huge, but the total domestic market is low, and it relies heavily on the international market. This is the current situation of China's photovoltaic industry.
The profits of polysilicon are huge, and many local governments and enterprise investors rush headlong into it, and the production capacity expands too fast. For a time, "photovoltaic bases" are everywhere. The demand in Europe has dropped sharply, and the price of photovoltaic modules has dropped by more than 5%. The photovoltaic industry, which was once in the limelight, has quickly entered the cold winter. According to Wang Bohua, Secretary-General of Photovoltaic Alliance, the domestic polysilicon output in 21 was 45, tons, which will double to 9, tons this year. In the same period, demand only increased by 25%. In the past few years, the demand for components in global solar has been soaring by nearly 1%. Experts predict that the photovoltaic industry integration period, which was originally expected to come in 214, will come ahead of schedule, and 212 will be the peak of industry integration.
a large number of photovoltaic industries have been launched, and besides the profit-seeking mentality of corporate investors, some local governments are also worried about their political achievements. As a new industry, attracting a large number of photovoltaic enterprises to invest can not only increase GDP, but also gain political capital for urban economic development. "Some cities simply don't have a foundation, no conditions, no industrial support, so they start from scratch, regardless of the actual situation." Meng Xianyu, vice chairman of the Renewable Energy Society, said.
211 will be a turning point in the photovoltaic industry. Since May 211, the price of polysilicon has dropped sharply, from 7, yuan per ton to 21,-25, yuan, a drop of nearly 7%. According to experts' analysis, the ratio of capacity to demand in the photovoltaic industry has dropped from 41: 16.7 in 21 to 63: 21. Enterprises rushed blindly to follow the trend, resulting in further imbalance between supply and demand, continuous decline in prices, and decline in profits, which led to operational difficulties for some enterprises, and some enterprises even began to stop production or semi-stop production. There is a serious overcapacity, but a large number of investors are crazy to enter.
In fact, as early as 29, polysilicon was positioned as one of the top ten industries with overcapacity. However, due to the huge profits at that time and the booming industry, a large number of investors entered crazily, which eventually led to further overcapacity. After 21, there are still more than 1 small and medium-sized enterprises in China, and most of these enterprises are suffering from serious losses.
As the market competition intensifies, small and medium-sized enterprises will be eliminated, and industry consolidation seems inevitable. China's photovoltaic industry has developed rapidly, and its production capacity has ranked first in the world, and its industrial chain is relatively perfect. However, compared with developed countries, China's photovoltaic industry is still far behind in technology. The phenomenon of blind construction, low-level duplication and homogenization competition in photovoltaic industry is still very serious. The low prosperity index of the industry forces domestic photovoltaic manufacturers to face the situation of accelerating product structure adjustment, improving product quality and developing into high-end fields. Under the background of climate change and energy shortage, solar power generation is increasingly sought after by investors. In 26, China accounted for 37, kilowatts of global solar cell output, surpassing the United States and becoming the third largest solar cell producer in the world after Japan and Germany.
In Jiangsu, where solar cell production enterprises are concentrated, such enterprises have mushroomed in recent two years and become an important force to promote regional economic development. The reporter walked into Suntech's solar cell production workshop in Wuxi, and saw that on the modern assembly line, the products were quickly synthesized after inspection, and the market price of a paper towel-sized solar cell panel reached 1 yuan.
Wuxi Er Quan Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd. was established in 26 with an investment of 15 million yuan. This year, orders for foreign products kept on. In 27, it will complete 15 MW production, with a production and sales volume of 45 million yuan, and next year it will complete 1 MW production, with a production and sales volume exceeding 3 billion yuan.
however, there are hidden worries behind the impressive performance of photovoltaic industry, mainly because there are domestic industries but no market. Zhang Erjian, chairman of Wuxi Er Quan Solar Energy Technology Co., Ltd., told the reporter that more than 98% of its products are exported overseas and the domestic demand is less than 2%.
Not long ago, the Renewable Energy Professional Committee (CREIA) of China Resources Comprehensive Utilization Association, Greenpeace, European Photovoltaic Industry Association and WWF jointly released the 27 Photovoltaic Development Report of China. The report, written by experts such as Li Junfeng, Secretary-General of CREIA and Deputy Director of Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, points out that China's photovoltaic industry has risen rapidly in recent years, but most of its products are exported to foreign markets.
in order to realize the sustainable development of energy and environment, Germany, Spain, Japan and other countries have encouraged the development of renewable energy, including solar photovoltaic. The rapidly growing international market has promoted the development of photovoltaic industry in China. Due to the low production cost, China has become a production base of solar photovoltaic industry abroad. Some people joked that solar power companies such as Suntech are actually making a fortune. The emergence of this situation is largely due to the policy constraints of the photovoltaic industry. In China, the application of photovoltaic power generation mainly focuses on rural electrification and off-grid photovoltaic products. Because the power sector has not officially accepted photovoltaic power generation, the grid-connected photovoltaic market has not really started. By 26, the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation was only 8, kilowatts.
Xie xiaonan, deputy general manager of Wuxi suntech, has a representative view in the photovoltaic industry: due to policy problems, the domestic market cannot be started soon, and we are very anxious.
at this stage, the most direct factor that hinders the popularization of photovoltaic is cost. In the past 3 years, although the cost of photovoltaic power generation has dropped from $5 to about $.5 per kilowatt-hour, it is still much higher than that of conventional power. At present, it costs 15,-2, yuan to install a solar power plant on the roof of a villa that can generate 3 degrees of electricity every year.
due to the high cost of photovoltaic power generation, we can only rely on government support. Some countries adopt policies such as purchasing Internet access and financial subsidies to promote the development of photovoltaic industry. Germany promulgated the renewable energy law in 2, one of its main features is the fixed on-grid tariff policy, and power grid companies must purchase the on-grid capacity of photovoltaic power generation in full; Japan's policy tilt is reflected in subsidies to users.
in China, the renewable energy law came into effect on January 1st, 26. This law has special provisions on supporting renewable energy such as photovoltaic power generation, but it lacks implementation rules and supporting policies for a long time. At present, the industry is waiting for support policies such as purchasing the Internet.
the acquisition of the Internet refers to the acquisition by the power grid company according to the cost of photovoltaic power generation plus reasonable profit, and the extra cost is shared equally among consumers all over the country. According to experts, China has begun to levy a renewable energy surcharge of 1% per kilowatt hour, and is preparing to start rooftop photovoltaic power generation plans in cities such as Shanghai. In addition, the state will require grid companies to purchase photovoltaic power in some large-scale engineering projects that are open to public bidding.
Shi Dinghuan, chairman of China Renewable Energy Society, believes that the state's policy support should be strengthened. In the long run, the lack of domestic market will limit the development of photovoltaic industry in China. To realize large-scale production and improve the competitiveness of photovoltaic industry, it is necessary to establish and stimulate the domestic consumer market. The domestic photovoltaic industry is ready to invest in technology research and development, but there must be stable policies to ensure that these investments can get corresponding returns. Among all kinds of renewable energy, wind energy is unstable, biomass energy resources are limited, and uranium ore needed for nuclear energy may be used up in the future, while solar energy is inexhaustible. If we wait until the price of solar energy drops to almost the same as that of fossil energy, we will miss the opportunity.
opinions on doing well the grid-connected service of distributed photovoltaic power generation
on October 26th, 212, State Grid Corporation of China held a press conference to serve the grid-connected distributed photovoltaic power generation, and officially released the Opinions on doing well the grid-connected service of distributed photovoltaic power generation. Distributed photovoltaic power generation is connected to the low-voltage distribution network in a decentralized manner, allowing surplus power to be connected to the internet, and power grid enterprises purchase surplus power in full according to national policies; The transformation of the public power grid caused by distributed photovoltaic access, as well as the network connection project connected to the public power grid, are all invested by power grid enterprises.
State Grid Corporation of China held the "Video Conference and Press Conference on Serving Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation Grid-connected" in Beijing, and released the "Opinions on Doing Well the Grid-connected Service of Distributed Photovoltaic Power Generation" to the society. This is a landmark meeting at which China's photovoltaic products encounter double-reverse investigations in Europe and the United States and the development of photovoltaic industry is facing great challenges, and State Grid Corporation of China has made a solemn commitment to the society to promote the healthy and sustainable development of domestic photovoltaic industry.
It is pointed out that according to the basic principle of "supporting, welcoming and serving" distributed photovoltaic power generation development, State Grid Corporation of China has strengthened investigation and research from the whole process of planning and design, technical inspection, grid connection, metering and charging, and safe operation, and actively adopted measures.