The first thing that is affected is smart deposits, which have been very popular in recent years. This kind of smart deposit can be taken with the deposit, and the interest paid in advance can reach more than 3%, and some banks can even reach more than 4%, so smart deposits were very popular at that time.
However, at the end of 20 19, China's central bank stepped up efforts to rectify these smart deposits, requiring major banks not to add new smart deposits, so since 2020, such smart deposits have rarely been seen in the market.
After smart deposits, structured deposits have also begun to be regulated. Since April 2020, many banks have quietly reduced the scale of structured deposits. After reaching the historical peak of about 12 trillion in April 2020, structured deposits gradually declined. By the end of 20201200 million, the scale of structured deposits has fallen below 7 trillion. Even after entering the years of 202 1 and 1, structured deposits have rebounded, but up to now, the scale of structured deposits is only over 700 billion, almost half of the historical peak.
After structured deposits, large deposit certificates also ushered in supervision. On June 5438+mid-February, 2020, six major state-owned banks announced at the same time that from June 20021day, early withdrawal of certificates of deposit cannot bear interest, and all certificates of deposit will bear interest at the current interest rate, just like ordinary time deposits.
After the six major banks, other banks have also adjusted the interest-bearing methods of large deposit certificates. At present, there are basically no deposit products with interest on the market.
Therefore, it is not too much to describe some deposit products of banks with calmness.
Yu 'ebao has been well received by the market since its launch on 20 13, especially before 20 18. For example, during the period from 20 13 to 20 14, when the yield of Yu' ebao was the highest, the annualized rate of return on the 7 th was close to 7%, and the interest rate at that time was much higher than that of bank deposits.
Most importantly, Yu 'ebao can deposit and withdraw money, with daily interest, taking into account both income and liquidity. Therefore, once launched, it is very popular with many wealth management customers, and the scale of Yu 'ebao is also expanding. At the peak, the scale of Yu 'ebao was close to 1.8 trillion.
However, with the change of regulatory policies, Yu 'ebao introduced a number of funds, so the scale gradually declined. In addition, since 20 16, many banks have launched various innovative deposit products, including some structured deposits, some smart deposits and some so-called special deposits.
These deposit products have both the security of ordinary deposits and the liquidity of Yu 'ebao. Many special deposits can be withdrawn in advance and interest paid in advance. Moreover, these deposits are better than Yu 'ebao in terms of income and security, and they can also have good liquidity in this context, so they are also very popular in the market.
With the rise of these special deposits, the advantages of Yu 'ebao are slowly lost, and the corresponding scale of Yu 'ebao is also declining, and the yield is also slowly declining. When the balance treasure is the lowest, the yield is even only about 1.5%.
It can be seen that the emergence of these characteristic deposits has a greater impact on Yu 'ebao.
Now that these special deposits are restricted, it means that the scale will definitely decrease in the future, and the attraction will gradually decrease. Yu Can Yu 'ebao reappears its former glory?
First of all, it is certain that as these special deposits are restricted, their market demand will definitely decrease gradually, and the corresponding customers will also transfer funds from these special deposits to find other more suitable wealth management products. In this context, Yu 'ebao may be further welcomed by everyone.
In addition, with the decline in the attractiveness of these characteristic deposits, it will be more difficult for banks to absorb deposits, and the overall monetary policy may be tightened in the future, so the deposit interest rate of banks may rise.
At present, most of the funds invested by Yu 'ebao are interbank deposits. Once the interest rate of bank deposits rises, the yield of these corresponding Yu 'ebao money funds may also rise. For example, the annualized rate of return of many Yu 'ebao funds can reach about 2.7%.
Therefore, I personally think that with the restriction of special bank deposits, the yield of Yu 'ebao may rebound from before, but I think it is basically impossible to return to the previous high-yield and hot state.
On the one hand, the current market competition is fierce. In addition to Yu 'ebao, there are many similar money funds, such as Tencent Wealth Management and Jingdong Finance. Once there are more money funds in the market, the competition will naturally be fierce. The bargaining power of these money funds on bank deposits is relatively weak, and the yield may decrease accordingly.
On the other hand, although the characteristic deposits of many banks are restricted at present, it does not mean that banks are unattractive. In fact, many small banks can conduct business online through their own channels, and the interest rates offered by many small banks are not low. At present, there are still many small banks that can offer interest rates above 4% for three-year deposits and above 5% for five-year deposits. If liquidity is not considered, the interest rate of these deposits is significantly higher than that of Yu 'ebao.
Therefore, based on the actual performance of the current market, I think the income of Yu 'ebao may pick up, but it is almost impossible to return to the previous state to achieve a "comeback".
At the beginning of this year, many people lost more than 20% of their blood by buying funds, so many people thought of Yu 'ebao again. Originally, everyone liked Yu 'ebao, but in recent years, the interest rate of Yu 'ebao is really too low, with an annual interest rate of less than 3%, which is not as good as ordinary bank deposits, and the yield of money fund products provided by many banks is sometimes slightly higher than Yu 'ebao. In this context, many people bought funds under the influence of publicity and promotion. But now the fund is frustrated, which is also a good thing for the balance treasure.
Another competitor is Internet deposits. Internet deposit products of small and medium-sized banks enjoy high returns and deposit insurance protection, so they were sought after by users last year. But don't forget the bankruptcy reorganization of Baoshang Bank. Nevertheless, most people's deposits in each bank will not exceed 500 thousand, so it will not affect. However, the object of Internet deposit competition is not only Yu 'ebao, but also traditional banks. It is not a good thing for traditional banks to collect deposits at high interest rates. After the cost is high, the risk will naturally be great. Therefore, the national policy has been supervised, and the products have been removed from JD.COM, Alipay and other major financial platforms, and it is stipulated that cross-regional deposits are not allowed. As the title says, the deposit products are cold, which is also a good thing for the balance treasure.
But has Yu Can's Yu 'ebao made a comeback? The answer is obviously no, the essence of Yu 'ebao is the money fund. The coolness of Internet deposits and funds can only bring a little more capital inflow to Yu 'ebao, and its rate of return still depends on the national interest rate level and the capital cost of the capital market. At present, the impact of the epidemic is still severe. Even if the central bank said a few days ago that it might raise interest rates, the rate will not be very large, the capital market is abundant, and the yield of Yu' ebao is difficult to increase significantly, while users are pursuing high returns and making a comeback. There's nothing to say.