Seven conjectures about China's economy in 211
Macro-economic articles focusing on wealth opportunities in 211
After the most complicated year of 21, China's economy has now entered the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. Looking back on the past year, it can be described as thrilling and ups and downs: from the complicated international European debt crisis and the resumption of quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve, to the domestic real estate regulation and control, the resumption of RMB exchange rate reform, and the "combination boxing" to regulate prices, multiple scenes are still vivid. In 211, it seems that the situation facing China's economy is not "simple", and even it will face new tests and challenges in macro-control ability. It should be said that in the first year of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, China's economy will gradually achieve the goals of "controlling inflation" and "restructuring" on the basis of steady growth. At the same time, the word "transformation" will also be the core theme throughout the year. So, looking forward to 211, what kind of landscape will the macro economy present for us?
Looking back on 21, China's economy experienced the challenges of a more complicated domestic and international environment: domestically, since July, prices have gone up everywhere and inflationary pressures have increased; The situation of promoting energy conservation and emission reduction and eliminating backward production capacity is grim. Internationally, the Federal Reserve started the second quantitative easing, and the pressure of hot money inflow in emerging markets suddenly increased. Therefore, in this context, controlling prices, preventing hot money and adjusting the structure have become new propositions that run through last year's macro policies and people's lives.
The "price shock wave" came unexpectedly
Looking back in 21, the "price shock wave" came unexpectedly, and the CPI hit a new high, once climbing from 1.5% in January to 5.1% in November, and then hitting a new high in 28 months. With the price of daily necessities rising month by month, the price problem has not only become a hot topic in the street, but also received great attention from the central government. The central bank not only raised the deposit reserve ratio six times on January 18, February 25, May 1, October 13, November 16 and November 29, bringing the deposit reserve ratio to a high of 18.5%, but also raised the benchmark deposit and loan interest rate by .25 percentage point for the first time on October 2 after a lapse of 34 months, and raised the interest rate by .25 percentage point again on December 26. At present, the one-year bank deposit rate has reached 2.75%, but even so, it is difficult to reverse the "negative interest rate" situation.
in order to stabilize prices and minimize the increase in people's living costs, the central government has decisively issued a series of policies and measures, which are rare in recent years. On November 2th, the State Council issued 16 specific measures to stabilize the overall level of consumer prices. Relevant departments also acted urgently, and the National Development and Reform Commission issued nine articles in five days to talk about price control; The CSRC issued a notice to strengthen the supervision of the futures market and resolutely curb excessive speculation in agricultural products; Local governments at all levels have taken measures such as subsidies and price limits to reduce the burden on people's "rice bags" and "vegetable baskets". In addition, the central economic work conference held at the end of last year also clearly put forward that the overall price stability level should be placed in a more prominent position, which indicates that the price regulation and supervision work will be "comprehensively strengthened" this year. Moreover, in order to stabilize the development of the real estate market, the State Council and the Ministry of Land and Resources have successively introduced a number of policy control measures to curb high housing prices, from the "National Eleven Articles" at the beginning of the year to the "New Four Articles" and "New Ten Articles" in April, and then to the "National Five Articles" on the eve of the National Day. It should be said that intensive policies have gradually stopped the crazy pace of the property market.
"More investment" replaces "more savings"
In the interview, the reporter learned that in response to the impact of rising prices, more and more people chose to replace "more savings" with "more investment" in 21. In a small-scale investigation, the reporter found that young people under the age of 35 generally increased or increased the proportion of venture capital such as stocks and precious metals T+D; Most of the social elite groups aged 35 to 55 have added real estate, physical gold, stocks, stock funds and other investment and wealth management varieties in the allocation of family assets; Those who have retired or are about to retire over the age of 55 have increased the proportion of investment in bank wealth management products, insurance products and partial stock funds. It can be seen that in the inflationary environment, the whole people have their own measures to "resist inflation".
The 211 Blue Book of Economy published by China Academy of Social Sciences recently pointed out that in terms of quarterly economic operation, China's economic operation showed a situation of "high before and low after" in 21. The annual GDP growth rate may reach a high level of 9.9%. According to the data released by the central bank on December 1th last year, by the end of November, RMB loans increased by 7.45 trillion yuan in 21, which means that there is no doubt that the scale of new loans of 7.5 trillion yuan set at the beginning of last year will be lost. According to the previous statistics of the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal revenue in 21 will also exceed 8 trillion yuan.
Looking forward to 211
In fact, since the second quarter of 21, China's economy has entered a transitional period after policy stimulus, but after the third quarter, the inertia effect of policy stimulus disappeared, and the second stimulus was finally proved to be a dream, and the exogenous growth ended. The Fifth Plenary Session of the Seventeenth Central Committee held in October reached an understanding on "maintaining growth" and "adjusting structure": the future prosperity of China's economy can only come from the market itself and endogenous growth. To some extent, this means that the macro background of investment in 211 has changed qualitatively compared with that in 21, and the main force of economic recovery has quietly shifted from the government to enterprises. After synthesizing the research reports of many institutions on macroeconomic operation in 211, the reporter sorted out "Seven conjectures of China's economy in 211" for readers, so as to help you make investment decisions in the new year on the basis of taking the overall situation into consideration.
It is assumed that interest rates will be raised twice in one year
Since the goal of policy control in 211 is to "promote transformation, control inflation and stabilize growth", it is an inevitable choice to combine a proactive fiscal policy with a prudent monetary policy. In detail, the active fiscal policy focuses on increasing residents' income and reducing burdens and stabilizing consumption growth; Emphasis should be placed on encouraging technological innovation, cultivating and supporting the development of emerging industries and upgrading the industrial structure; Emphasis is placed on supporting the development of the central and western regions and realizing the balanced development of the regional economic structure. A prudent monetary policy will continue to strengthen liquidity management and reasonably control the scale of credit. It is generally expected that the M2 growth target will be 16% in 211, and the reserve ratio will be raised by 1 percentage point again and the interest rate will be raised twice in the whole year, and the monetary policy will return to neutrality.
Guess the second investment will increase by 2%
It can be predicted that 211 will be the beginning of the implementation of a large number of regional revitalization plans in the previous period. Regional investment will be the most important factor to stabilize investment in 211. In the future, with the further implementation of the policy of encouraging private investment, private investment brought by market opening will increase, and accelerating the development of emerging strategic industries will also promote investment in related fields. However, real estate investment will face the possibility of decline. Northeast Securities predicts that the investment growth rate in 211 will be around 2%. At the same time, CITIC Construction Investment also believes that if it is not difficult to see from the formation and governance of the crisis, the main driving force for China's growth is different in different time periods, that is, exports are the first before the crisis; Investment first in crisis; Consumption comes first after the crisis. Based on this, China CITIC Construction Investment Co., Ltd. judges that the three carriages of China's economic growth have the trend of "the confluence of the two rivers", that is, the growth rate of investment and consumption will be basically the same in 211, and it is expected that they will all be close to 2%.
Guess 3: Consumption increased by 18%
In terms of consumption growth, most institutions believe that the consumption growth in 211 is basically stable, and there will be no major adjustment. The driving forces for the steady growth of consumption mainly include: income growth, consumption policy support, consumption upgrading and regional diffusion. It is understood that all provinces and cities in China have raised the minimum wage since last year, and the important guarantee for income growth lies in the expected income increase brought by the policy of adjusting the income distribution structure and improving the income of low-and middle-income people determined in the Twelfth Five-Year Plan. According to the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", the strategy of "restraining the high, widening the middle and lowering the middle" will be an important income distribution policy. It is expected that corresponding measures will be introduced one after another in promoting employment, raising the minimum wage and reducing the tax burden in the future, thus further increasing the income growth rate of residents. It should be said that the increase of income will undoubtedly promote the growth of consumption. At the same time, the upgrading of residents' consumption in China is still an important driving force for consumption growth. Based on this, institutions have predicted that the consumption growth in 211 is expected to remain at around 18%.
Guess the import and export will increase by 16%
As far as 211 is concerned, the external economy will recover and its residents' consumption power will continue to recover. Therefore, the external demand is expected to grow steadily. From this perspective, the export growth will be guaranteed. However, from another perspective, due to the high unemployment rate, high deficit and long-term crisis management, the economic growth of European, American and Japanese economies is facing downside risks, which will also mean that China's export environment may face more trade protectionism such as anti-dumping and countervailing. Therefore, institutions generally believe that China's export growth rate will be slower than this year's high recovery growth. At the same time, under the pressure of trade rebalancing, China will continue to increase imports, and it is expected that imports will continue to grow faster than exports. In this case, it is expected that the trade surplus will continue to decline. According to the predictions of international organizations such as the World Bank and OECD, global trade will fall back to about 8% in 211. According to empirical data, the growth rate of China's total import and export trade will fall back to about 16%, and its export growth rate will be around 15%, while imports will be around 18%, and the trade surplus will continue to shrink to about 15 billion US dollars.
Guess that RMB will appreciate by 3% to 5%
Since June last year, the appreciation rate of RMB against the US dollar has been closely linked to the decline rate of the US dollar index. Because of the peg to the US dollar, once the US dollar index drops rapidly and the RMB remains unchanged against the US dollar, it will mean that the RMB depreciates rapidly against non-US currencies. At the same time, in 211, China will take allowing RMB to appreciate as one of the tools to curb inflation, especially when commodity prices continue to climb. Based on these considerations, most domestic institutions believe that the RMB is expected to appreciate by 3% to 5% in 211. Foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, expect RMB appreciation to reach 5% or more.
I guess the CPI will increase by 3.5% to 4%
Looking forward to the CPI growth level in 211, institutions generally give an expectation of 3.5% to 4%, and think that prices will drop significantly after the Spring Festival. In detail, the CPI will fall in the first quarter of 211, because February 3, 211 is the Spring Festival, and January is usually a month of high price increase, but overall, it is expected that the CPI will increase by 3.9% year-on-year. In the next second quarter, CPI will continue to run at a high level. Because with the warming of the weather, the prices of eggs and vegetables will drop significantly, and the prices will be lower than that in March. However, due to the low base last year, the year-on-year increase will be higher in June. Based on this, it is estimated that CPI will increase by 3.9% in the second quarter. By the second half of 211, the year-on-year increase of CPI will drop significantly, and the inflationary pressure will also be eased significantly. Therefore, it is predicted that CPI will increase by 3.5% in the third quarter, 2.4% in the fourth quarter and 3.% in the second half.
guess that GDP will increase by 9.2%
211 is the first year of China's Twelfth Five-Year Plan. Under the guidance of the Party Central Committee's proposal on the Twelfth Five-Year Plan, China will further accelerate the transformation of development mode and promote the strategic adjustment of economic structure. As for the growth rate of GDP, most institutions believe that the slowdown of economic growth in 211 will be a high probability event, and GDP growth may fall back to the range of 9% to 9.5%. It is expected that the annual growth rate will be around 9.2%.