In the report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the future development direction of the real estate industry emphasized that "houses are used for living, not for speculation, and a housing system with multi-subject supply, multi-channel guarantee and simultaneous rent and purchase should be established, so that all people can live and live".

Xiao Jie, Minister of Finance, recently talked about the real estate tax in the "Guide to the Report of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China", and made it clear that the future real estate tax will be levied according to the appraised value of houses.

Recently, Huang said, "Of course, real estate tax will be collected, not that it will take ten or twenty years, but that it will be collected in the next few years!"

First, the direct purpose of levying property tax is to increase local fiscal revenue, make up for local fiscal holes and repay local debts.

In 2009, stimulated by the central government's 4 trillion yuan, local governments also made large-scale investments, which led to the rapid expansion of local debts. The local debt problem has always been a sensitive issue that puzzles China's economy and capital market. In fact, local governments at the county level have gone bankrupt, unable to make ends meet and unable to repay their debts; In addition, the central government changed the business tax to value-added tax, but the business tax is completely local tax, and 70% of the value-added tax is paid to the central government, which is equivalent to a sharp drop in local tax revenue after the tax law reform.

Property tax is a local tax. In this context, in order to balance local fiscal revenue, the implementation of property tax can increase local fiscal revenue and repay debts. This is the original intention and purpose of levying property tax, not to regulate housing prices. It is just a beautiful excuse to smoothly introduce the property tax, which can be supported by the general public. Property tax can bring new long-term stable tax sources to local governments and solve local financial difficulties.

Second, the direct purpose of property tax is not to curb housing prices. Shanghai and Chongqing have introduced property taxes, but they have not curbed housing prices.

The property tax pilot projects in Shanghai and Chongqing have not changed the rising trend of housing prices in Shanghai and Chongqing, nor have they curbed housing prices. Beijing has not introduced property tax, while Shanghai has implemented property tax. The two cities can be compared. Since the property tax pilot, Shanghai's housing price growth rate has greatly outperformed the whole country, and both are higher than Beijing; Chongqing is a second-tier city. In terms of regional location, it can be compared with Chengdu. The average level of housing prices in Chongqing and Chengdu is very close to the increase rate, and it is very important that the residential property rights in Chongqing are 50 years, while those in other cities are 70 years, which is one of the reasons that restrict the increase rate of housing prices in Chongqing. Therefore, it can be seen that the introduction of property tax has a relatively weak impact on housing prices.

Third, the income from land sales is much greater than the income from property tax. At present, local governments still rely on land sales, not property taxes.

In Shanghai and Chongqing, for example, the property tax revenue only accounts for about 2% of the fiscal revenue, and the land revenue only accounts for 7%, which is far less than the land transfer revenue, and the land revenue is still the absolute bulk. The accumulated property tax collected in Chongqing in three years does not exceed 400 million yuan, while the land transfer income in Chongqing is as high as150 billion yuan. In 20 1 1 year, the personal property tax collected in Shanghai exceeded 1 billion yuan, and the tax revenue in 20 12 and 20 13 years was about 200 million yuan and 300 million yuan respectively.

At present, due to the narrow tax base, China's individual housing accounts for more than 80% of the total, and its contribution to local fiscal revenue is only about 2%. Therefore, even if the property tax is pushed, it is difficult to become a source of income for local finance in the short term.

Four, no matter according to the actual level, or according to the current economic situation, China will not fully implement the property tax.

On the practical level, the fluctuation of real estate price is closely related to the macro-political and economic situation. How to reasonably evaluate the real estate price and then levy taxes is a difficult problem in practical operation and needs to be continuously improved. There are also economic and financial risks, and it is not easy to comprehensively promote property tax:

(1) Real estate is still a pillar industry in China, which is irreplaceable in the short term.

The market space of China's real estate industry is still huge, and the upstream and downstream industrial chains are very long, and its pillar position in China's current economic development is still unshakable. Especially in the context of the current economic downturn and the emerging industries have not yet taken over the development momentum, real estate is still one of the core driving forces of China's economic development, which will be irreplaceable in 5- 10 years.

(2) Land leasing is an important source of debt repayment and fiscal revenue for local governments.

Local government debt is highly dependent on land transfer income. By the end of 20 12,1/provincial, 3 16 municipal and 1396 county governments had promised to repay the debts with land transfer income, accounting for 37.23% of the provincial, city and county government debt balance of 93643 billion yuan.

(3) 70% of China residents' property is allocated in real estate. If the property tax is implemented to accelerate the decline of house prices, it will lead to financial risks.

Nearly 70% of the property of urban residents in China is allocated to real estate, especially in today's rapid development of housing loans. Configuring multiple properties in different cities through high leverage has become the first choice for the urban middle class.

At present, most mortgage projects in China's financial industry are related to real estate, so the shrinking of real estate prices will directly affect the stability of financial-related businesses and trigger a series of systemic risks.

In the case that the pillar position of real estate cannot be replaced, rashly levying a large-scale property tax on individual housing may lead to a sharp drop in demand for house purchase in a short period of time, an accelerated decline in house prices, a sharp decline in residents' wealth, further reduction in expenditures, and a sharp depreciation of collateral, which may lead to financial risks, stalled economic growth, and a sharp drop in fiscal revenue. In the context of the current central government's constant emphasis on stabilizing financial risks, it is difficult to fully introduce property tax. There is no mention of property tax in the report of the 19th National Congress, or to ease market concerns.

Cities on the 5, 3, 4 and below go to real estate inventory and encourage buying houses; At the same time, these cities have the highest local debt ratio and still need to rely on land income to pay off debts. Therefore, cities in the third and fourth tier and below will not introduce property tax.

One of the economic goals of the central government this year is to destock real estate, but it refers to the destock of cities in the third and fourth tier and below, because these places have large residential stocks and high risks, so destock is necessary. Therefore, the regulation of the property market introduced by governments at all levels this year is mainly aimed at first-tier cities and second-tier cities. The third-and fourth-tier cities and below have not introduced property market regulation. Instead, they encourage buying houses to digest inventory and reduce financial risks. Therefore, in the third-and fourth-tier cities and below this year, house prices are relatively hot and are on the rise.

In addition, due to the lack of industries that can bring less fiscal revenue in cities below the third and fourth lines, local debts are mainly concentrated in cities below the third and fourth lines, and it is still necessary to repay debts and resolve risks.

Therefore, if these cities levy property tax, although it can bring some property tax revenue, the scale can not be compared with the land transfer fee, but it will inhibit the real estate development in these places, which is contrary to the central real estate inventory, and also hinder the fiscal revenue of these places, and can not solve the risk problem of local debt.

To sum up, it is difficult for cities in the third and fourth tier and below to introduce property tax.

6. Housing prices in first-tier cities and most hot-spot second-tier cities are falling, so there is no need to introduce property tax.

In the bull market of housing prices that started from 20 15, the housing prices in first-tier cities and most second-tier cities increased greatly, so curbing housing prices is also the economic goal of the central government this year. At the end of last year and the beginning of this year, real estate regulation and control continued to upgrade and strengthen, and house prices dropped significantly. 2017165438+10, according to the statistics of the Bureau of Statistics, the prices of hot cities in 15 were generally stable, and the prices of new commercial housing and second-hand housing in first-tier cities dropped by 0. 1% respectively, which were flat, including Shenzhen, Beijing, Shanghai, Hefei and Shanghai.

Figure: 10 month 10 hot city housing prices.

Since the housing prices in most hot cities have fallen, there is no need to introduce property tax in cities with falling housing prices, and the local debts of these cities are not serious, so it is not necessary to rely on the income from property tax to repay debts.

Of course, there are still a few hot cities where house prices have not fallen, such as Chengdu, and there is the possibility of property tax.

Seven, the legality of levying property tax in China is controversial.

Ordinary residents in China pay more taxes in real estate-related fields, such as deed tax, land transfer fee, property fee and public maintenance fund. For example, the deed tax in August was 41400 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.5%. Land value-added tax was 32.2 billion yuan, up13.2% year-on-year; The property tax was 7.5 billion yuan, up 13. 1% year-on-year, and the deed tax, property tax and land value-added tax increased steadily. Therefore, it is suspected of double taxation to levy taxes on the basic housing needs of ordinary residents.

Most countries in the world, such as Europe, America, Japan, Australia, Canada and other countries, implement land privatization, and individuals have the permanent right to use the land, so it is equivalent to occupying the land and paying the property tax, which is about 1-2% every year.

In China, land is nationalized, and private people pay for the use of land. During the land use period, they have absolute right to use the above-ground buildings, and the term of commercial housing is 70 years. Once the deadline has passed, the state has the right to recover the land, or to carry out demolition after the deadline, and the state also has the right not to give you any compensation, or after the deadline, you need to pay some more money, or pay some money every year. Therefore, the land in China has only the right to use, but no ownership. When buying a house, the purchase fund is equivalent to paying the use amount. Therefore, paying property tax is equivalent to paying more taxes, which lacks legal basis. Therefore, there is a lot of controversy in jurisprudence.

Eight, the time point of China real estate tax, 2020 may be a time point, and the pilot project may be expanded in the next two years.

To sum up, cities in the third and fourth tier and below, considering the long-term local debt and local fiscal revenue, are not suitable for levying property tax, so it is difficult to levy property tax in these places.

First-tier cities and second-tier cities can rely less on land finance and the local debt ratio is not high. On the contrary, housing prices are overheated and the masses have great opinions, so it is most likely to implement property tax.

As for the timing of the introduction of real estate tax in first-tier and second-tier cities, considering that the introduction of real estate tax will affect the interests of one-third of the groups, there will be more obstacles. In order to reduce obstacles, the introduction of real estate tax needs to find a suitable time and get the support of most people, that is, the next round of skyrocketing housing prices will be a good time, probably around 2020. House prices in first-tier and most second-tier cities have fallen. It is expected that they will start to relax by the end of 20 18. From 20 19, house prices may rise. In 2020, house prices are likely to set off a hot spot. It may be a good time to introduce property tax at this time. It can be launched under the slogan of suppressing housing prices, which will be supported by most people and will be less obstructed. The premise is that there is no domestic economic crisis in 20 19-2020, or the domestic economy can stabilize, rather than continue to decline, because in the case of economic stall, house prices are not easy to go crazy again, and the introduction of property tax at this time will undoubtedly add to the economic congestion.

20 1 1 property tax has been piloted for six years, and it is possible to expand the pilot. If the pilot project is expanded on 20 18, it is a pilot project with partial and slight tax burden, and it may only be piloted in some second-tier cities with low financial dependence on land and rising housing prices, such as Chengdu and Nanjing, which can not only meet the slogan of controlling housing prices, but also get the support of most people.

Nine, if the implementation of property tax, it should be levied on the second suite and above, 70% of the people will not be affected.

The levy of property tax should ensure that it will not affect the interests of most groups, the interests of most groups and the stability of macroeconomic operation. Only on the basis of adhering to the above principles can the levy of property tax be realistic.

Since it is to combat speculation, rather than just need, it should be to levy a tax on the second set and raise the tax rate on the third set. It can be seen from the proportion table of the number of houses owned by residents that 69.05% of urban residents only own 1 house, and only 3.63% of urban residents own three or more houses.

Table: Proportion of residents owning houses (%)

Judging from the existing pilots, the real estate tax is piloted from a new increment, and it is not difficult to implement the policy. Shanghai and Chongqing all start from increments, but this does not mean that the property tax will not expand in these cities. Chongqing also gradually began to expand to the stock. The beginning of the increment does not mean only checking the increment, but checking the stock area of new buyers and levying excessive property tax. Take Shanghai as an example. If you don't buy a new house, the property tax will not be calculated for the previous stock area, but if you buy a new house, the property tax will be calculated together.