Whether Yu 'ebao may lose money depends on the investment target and income calculation method of Yu 'ebao. At present, the scale of Yu 'ebao is around 400 billion. According to public information, 90% of Yu 'ebao's funds are invested in agreement deposits, so the price of agreement deposits plays a decisive role in Yu 'ebao's income.
As a monetary fund, Yu 'ebao adopts amortized cost method. Specifically, the so-called amortized cost method is to list the appraised object at the purchase cost, amortize it evenly at the coupon rate or agreed interest rate during the remaining period, and accrue the income daily. If there is a premium after the bond is listed, the fund will calculate its net value according to the "amortized cost method" and throw out high-yield bonds, which will greatly increase the daily income of the fund and convert it into higher annualized income. Obviously, this annualized high return is inflated.
Generally speaking, if you invest in real estate, it costs 6.5438+0 million yuan to buy a house. After a few days, the house has risen to 2 million. You feel that you have earned 6,543,800 yuan, and you are very happy. If you travel, eat, drink and have fun everywhere, and then come back and find that your house is only worth 800 thousand at present, you will definitely regret it because you have spent all your money. On the one hand, the money fund distributes the expected income every day, but it turns out that it can't earn that much at all, so for the later share holders, there is only a loss.
Generally speaking, the principal loss of the money fund will only happen if two conditions are met at the same time, and the probability of these two extreme situations happening at the same time is very small. First, the market yield rose sharply in the short term, which led to a sharp drop in securities prices; Second, money funds are redeemed in large quantities at the same time, and bonds with falling prices cannot be held at maturity, resulting in actual losses after selling bonds. According to relevant professional calculations, the probability of a single-day money market fund's principal loss is about 0.06 1 17%. If it is held for a week or a month, the probability of principal loss is close to zero. With the extension of holding period, the loss probability caused by market risk will drop to zero.
At present, the investment target of Yu 'ebao is mainly agreement deposits, and there are few bonds, so the change of bond price has little effect on the change of its net value. Secondly, the problem of large redemption, because the investors of Yu 'ebao are basically retail investors. Judging from the current information disclosure, there are very few institutional investors, accounting for a small proportion, so the probability of large redemption is very low. For large redemptions such as Double Eleven, Yu 'ebao will definitely make corresponding plans. In other cases, large redemptions are closely related to the occurrence of economic events. Unless unpredictable economic events occur, which will affect the investment confidence of investors, there will be no large redemption.
Therefore, judging from the current investment target and investor composition of Yu 'ebao, it is almost impossible to invest in the principal loss of Yu 'ebao, and Yu 'ebao is a good investment to replace savings. As for the rate of return, it is closely related to the regulation of the central bank and the tension of market funds. But what is certain is that even if the interest rate of the agreed deposit falls, the income of Yu 'ebao is greater than the interest rate of the current deposit.