Personally, I have no religious belief, but I don't exclude reading all kinds of classics. To be honest, from those ancient words, we can see many meaningful observations and very enlightening wisdom.

In the field of investment, "greed" is like a devil, with countless incarnations, omnipresent and almost invincible forever. ? If you have been framed by the devil's greed, don't be surprised, because that's normal-you should be very lucky to be framed and not die; Being put together, not dying, and then waking up, that's a blessing in disguise.

The most terrible situation is this:

For example, borrowing money without paying interest is a kind of greed. Historically, because Jews understood the relationship between money and time earlier and more firmly, they not only charged interest, but also recovered interest-but also because of this, they were hated by people of all other races for a long time and prepared to "destroy Jews" and put them into action more than once.

First of all, interest should belong to the lender; Secondly, money will generate interest in the process of time flow, so theoretically, there is no "interest-free money" in this world, even if it may be "negative interest" in certain circumstances. So "unwilling to pay interest", that is, "want money that actually belongs to others"-do you think this is extreme greed?

However, if we look at historical phenomena calmly, we will find that this "greed" comes from ignorance? Many times it is not "intentional" and even the whole society is ignorant. Even if many people are stupid, they are learned, not born perfect.

It's true about interest. What about the return on investment? During the period from 20 1 1 to 20 15, the internetization of private lending in China, that is, P2P, was very popular. When a platform gives an annualized income of 25%, it actually shows that the crisis has spread to various places.

You can search online to see what the one-year lump-sum deposit interest rate of big banks is. In recent years, it is about 1.75%.

We know a basic principle:

It should be easy to earn 100 yuan with 100 yuan. However, the difficulty of earning10 billion is very different from the former. The bank's capital is too large, and the interest it can give is not much higher-banks have to lend money to earn a "spread".

The interest rate of private small short-term loans has not been low, but if the interest rate is high enough to reach more than 15%, there is already a high systemic risk. If it reaches more than 25%, it will inevitably collapse within two years (that is, eight quarterly cycles). However, all kinds of "hardest hit areas for private lending" have appeared frequently in China. For many years, year after year. What does this mean? It shows that most people simply don't know that the return on investment above 15% "probably doesn't belong to them", so they are ignorant and fearless.

Ignorance and fearlessness usually have a bad ending, which is "suffering". So many times, greed is really not necessarily a "sin" because it is often unintentional; Greed will definitely suffer in the end, because greedy people who are ignorant are very passive and will bear the consequences if they don't know what is going on.

Let's take a look at the records of the top investors in the world:

Buffett: Berkshire Hathaway, with a compound annual growth rate of 21.1%in the 43 years up to 2007;

Simmons: Fuxing Science and Technology Company, the "Grand Medal" Fund, 1988 has been established for 30 consecutive years, with an average compound annualized rate of return of 34%;

Greenbray: Gotham Fund. During the 20 years from 1985 to 2005, the compound annualized rate of return reached 40%. ...

This is the existence of "God-like". So, what should the "passing standard" look like? Buffett is actually a public relations expert. Although many "senior" investors don't think highly of Buffett, Buffett is indeed the most influential in the public sphere-of course, we have a saying that "scholars despise each other", but in fact, in the investment field, "investors despise each other" is just more, definitely less. Buffett's "reference standard" is absolutely pertinent:

This is still on the premise of deep research and understanding of the industry and enterprises-this is very important, with knowledge and awe, it has a taste. A metaphor of the great god Greenbray is particularly wonderful and worth remembering: buying stocks without knowing what to buy is like walking through an explosive factory with a torch. You may have survived, but you are still a fool. ?

15%, is this a number to remember? . But before that, we should go back and pay close attention to the wording:

Most people only know about "rate of return", but they don't know about "annualized rate of return", let alone "compound annualized rate of return". Once we talk about "compound annualized rate of return", we are not talking about one year, not two years, but many years, usually more than ten years or even twenty or thirty years. ...

So contrary to what most people think, "value" is not in the first place, "long-term" should be in the first place, and then "value", that is, "long-term value", is what we want to pursue. What is "temptation"? Temptation can be defined as follows:

In other words, everything that does not belong to "long-term value" can be counted as "temptation"-this is a truth that can only be truly understood after at least ten years. Is it "what a painful understanding!" It depends on whether the "moment of seeing" can be completely absorbed and accepted.

Once your goal is like this, what you "see" is different. What you can see seems to be another world. Many things that you can't help but pay attention to before this seem to "suddenly disappear completely", while others seem to "suddenly appear", which feels amazing.

Most people are only "short-term investors" all their lives, and because they don't force themselves to pay attention to the long term, they confidently accept all kinds of "temptations", so they pay attention to the "other world". It is hard to imagine that short-term investors in the stock market don't pay attention to the K-line chart-what else can they pay attention to if they don't pay attention to this? It's hard to imagine that they don't ask around for information-they want to analyze the results without analytical ability, which is greed, but what can they do besides greed? It's even harder to imagine them walking past the fire factory (they don't just know that they have torches in their hands) and then finding themselves alive. Then they will not be complacent, but will "naturally" never walk through another fire factory with a torch again. ...

Everyone will look at the K-line chart for a period of time after entering the stock market, because:

Looking at that historical band, almost no novice has not flashed this idea in his mind: "If I sell here (high point) and buy it back here (low point), wow, I must earn a lot more!"

This is a complete illusion, because it is only a record of historical market data, not the actual experience that the dreamer may have in the future. One day, I will know that I am really in it. From my own immersive point of view, the cost of each moment seems to be both the highest point and the lowest point; Moreover, once you start to pay attention to the K-line, it is basically difficult to think about the long term-because the feeling and impulse of "living in the present" are so strong that your brain is stimulated by various intuition every minute, and you can't remember that you are actually facing "randomness in walking" (please reread last week's content), and you unconsciously turned yourself into a gambler in minutes-and you have been "inadvertently"

Buffett's master Graham has an extremely wonderful analogy:

When I first read it, I was surprised! And suddenly feel very relaxed because of this analogy:

Since the stock market is just a voting machine in the short term, let others vote. Anyway, there are so many voters that I don't have to vote by myself at all, let alone vote repeatedly. If the stock market is a weighing machine in the long run, then I don't have to weigh it. What I need to do is try my best to find the heaviest "fat man" in the future. It is easy to find a fat man. It depends on who "eats more".

Although the last sentence began to approach a joke, today I still remember the moment when I figured out (or was "reminded") the first half sentence. As for the last sentence, it's not entirely a joke-it's just an oversimplification. However, I feel relieved, because I understand that I should have the opportunity to learn how to find that fat man in the future. If I learn this, I won't be greedy again, because I have the ability, and such things should belong to me. You think this is super relief?

Thinking and action

1. Please carefully review the definition of "greed" and take out a pen and paper to list: Where did I get greedy involuntarily in the past? What's the harm to me? Even caused a certain degree of disaster? What are the lessons? How to avoid it in the future?

"Greed": People are greedy when they want something that doesn't belong to them. In 20 15, in order to expand the company's business with more funds, we set up a lot of credit card cashing in an intermediary company, hoping to obtain cash flow with very little handling fee and expand the company's scale. In the first two months, every credit card arrived the next day, and the handling fee was very low. Later, at the end of April, the boss who rarely appeared in the company came to the door and advised him to brush out 400,000 yuan, which could make the credit card raise a large sum of 6,543.8+0,000 yuan, which not only saved the trouble of using a small brush card in the future, but also allowed the large credit card to borrow money. We cashed this gold card with five credit cards, and a total of more than 260 thousand was credited to his company account. Two days later, on May Day, we are still urging him to arrive. He said that due to the holiday, the bank could not make large transfers. As a result, I went to work on May 4 and realized that something was wrong before the transfer. We stopped the salesman in the company and realized that he had run away. It is a typical financial fraud, and the company's business licenses are all registered by employees. Last thing, although the swindler was caught in Chengdu a month later, he said that he had run out of money, so he ended up in prison for five years, and the more than 2 million money he cheated was gone. In the end, only more than 50 thousand losses were recovered. This 200,000 is equivalent to our first year's net profit. As a result, we didn't say anything for a year, and we had to earn an extra 260 thousand to pay back the credit card. There is a difference of 450 thousand in the middle.

This greed not only weakened the company, but also led to poor writing. However, in the end, we had to reduce our shares, which affected our business development to some extent. Moreover, it took the company two years to pay back the lost money. For my body, I was too angry at that time, and there was something wrong with my body, which affected for about 4 years. At that time, I also asked them why they didn't have an official seal when selling POS machines, but I didn't think carefully about what went wrong. It's been two days, and there is no transfer. He said that the bank would not turn on holiday, but he didn't call the regular bank to check whether the situation was true. People should get to the bottom of things that don't conform to common sense and check the real situation, instead of relying on trust to do what the other party says; The reliability of a thing needs to be proved through various channels to understand the truth; In addition, we should study more and cultivate our independent thinking ability, and don't be influenced by the rhetoric of the outside world and others and make irrational decisions.

Please carefully review the definition of "temptation" and take out a pen and paper to list: Where have I been tempted involuntarily in the past? What's the harm to me? Even caused a certain degree of disaster? What are the lessons? How to avoid it in the future?

Definition of "temptation": valuable, or at least seemingly valuable, but not "long-term value" …

I haven't done capital operation, so there are no examples of capital. Give an example at work. I originally chose 20 18 to jump out of my family and choose a challenging and social job. At that time, the salary of Taobao customer service was around 6000, which was relatively short and it was convenient to take care of children. Another job is maternal and child planning, and my boss attaches great importance to me. In the long run, maternal and child planning is challenging, which can exercise my ability in all aspects, the sociality of planning work, and also exercise my various abilities, so that I can grow up quickly. In addition to the company's basic salary, there will be commission and year-end bonus every month. Relatively speaking, the Taobao job I did was not easy, and the second time was not short. The third wage income was not as high as Taobao customer service at first. Therefore, unable to resist the temptation of Taobao customer service, I finally gave up the planning work and chose to continue to do Taobao customer service.

The direct harm is that after two years, my mind has not changed. After studying and growing up, I still yearn for challenging work and a wider social circle outside. Let yourself directly lose two years of growth and two years of work precipitation.

To some extent, the disaster is that my income has not changed in the past two years, and my working ability has not improved, which is quite regrettable. It's not worth wasting time. At present, I have made it clear that I still need to change my job, so I will guide myself to do things well from beginning to end before looking for a job, and I will also think about what is more important and what is the most important, so that I will not give up my growing job and environment in order to escape temporary relaxation.

If you start to pay attention to "long-term", then in the investment field, the most important thing is analysis and research. This is true, but what should you analyze? Study what? Although there will be an explanation later, can I start doing something myself?

First of all, we should analyze which stocks are growing at home and abroad, what is the annualized compound rate, and predict the long-term price of the shares of two interested companies, how to hedge and how to look at the long-term value. Learn the application of statistics and probability in capital investment, fixed at what time in a month, learn to summarize and adjust your own thinking loopholes, learn new knowledge points, find loopholes in the process of operation and practice, learn to summarize and block thinking loopholes, constantly hone your learning ability in the process of actual operation, learn what you need, become an expert in that field, and then think, make decisions and act like an expert.

What you can do now is: buy the book Statistical Probability yourself, choose a domestic stock and a foreign stock, start to build tables next week, and wait another week to read the data, then you can install software to read the stocks, learn and summarize the basic knowledge, and reflect on the shortcomings of doing this for the first time on the fixed date next month.

4. If I want to be a "long-term investor", what should I not analyze or study?

To be a "long-term investor", what do you don't need or shouldn't analyze and study? First of all, we should distinguish what we should analyze and study to become a "long-term investor". A long-term investor should pursue the goal of "at least long-term compound annual growth 15%". 0 1, first of all, the term is long, not one year or two, but longer years. As the author said, it is called long-term; 02, annualized, the day extends to the year, we call it annualized, we don't look at a day, a week, or even a few months, the basic unit is the year; 03. The compound annualized rate is different from the annualized rate of return: the interest is not taken separately, and the interest in the following year is calculated together with the principal.

Therefore, as a long-term investor, the research that does not need or should not be analyzed is: short-term looks attractive, but long-term is worthless; The fluctuation of historical K-line chart to current high and low price.

Even if I don't have the money to "actually invest", can I still analyze and study? Even if there is no cash reward, how to keep yourself interested?

If there is no money to "actually invest", it can still be analyzed and studied. Just like the concept of 25-period study, what are the conditions for starting investment activities? It is the "thinking ability" (or "wisdom") of investors. As Li Xiaolai said, there is no money at present, but that doesn't mean there is no action. You can set up an EXCEL table, a simple table of several stocks you are concerned about, and then imagine that you buy Google shares at 1 USD, and then update the stock price at the end of each month to calculate the price rise and fall relative to the initial investment of 1 USD-and it's over. The actual investment can start with tempering the brain.

In the case of "no cash reward", the way to still make yourself interested is to give meaning to this matter and find what you need. For example, when I did my homework yesterday, I didn't answer myself what ability I still didn't deserve the amount of money I was after, and that was ability. What you need to do is to set up a virtual investment fund for yourself, then set a long-term amount you want to get back, observe your actual operation every month, how much the actual data is different from your expected data, and then adjust your number and the types of stocks you invest in until it is adjusted to your expectation. Making money is just what I need. I put it for a long time to observe my current operation practice, which is my own motivation.