The situation in eastern Ukraine has escalated again

Recently, the exchange of fire between Ukrainian authorities and anti-government civilian armed forces in the east has become the norm, and the Minsk Ceasefire Agreement has been broken again. Ukrainian President poroshenko announced the escalation of the situation and issued a presidential decree to allow government troops to open fire. Affected by the situation in Syria, the focus of the international community has gradually shifted to the Middle East, and the Ukrainian crisis will face a long-term trend.

The ceasefire agreement has been broken again

In February this year, the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France reached an agreement in Minsk, the capital of Belarus, on comprehensive measures for a long-term political solution to the Ukrainian crisis and a ceasefire in eastern Ukraine. Since then, sporadic conflicts in eastern Ukraine have continued, and both sides of the conflict have accused each other of undermining the Minsk Ceasefire Agreement.

On October 2nd, the leaders of the four countries held peace talks on Ukraine in Paris. After the meeting, Uzbek President poroshenko declared that the weapons and equipment near the contact zone would be withdrawn from October 3rd. Since then, the two sides have successively withdrawn their weapons from the contact zone, and a ceasefire has been achieved in eastern Ukraine.

However, since the beginning of November, there has been a marked increase in exchange of fire. Both sides have publicly stated that the situation in the east may intensify and accused each other of violating the ceasefire agreement.

Turchinov, secretary of the National Security and Defense Committee of Ukraine, told the outside world in Kiev on the 11th that the peace process in eastern Ukraine was on the verge of being destroyed. Turchinov accused the anti-government civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine of sabotaging the peace process, saying that the short peace in eastern Ukraine could be broken at any time and the peace situation was very fragile. The anti-government civilian armed forces in eastern Ukraine denied the above accusations, saying that the responsibility for the current situation lies with the Ukrainian government forces.

Ukrainian President poroshenko issued a presidential decree on 11th, allowing Ukrainian government forces to open fire when their lives were threatened. At the same time, he said that the risks and threats to Ukraine's national security and territorial integrity have risen sharply. On 15th, poroshenko officially announced the escalation of the situation in eastern Ukraine, saying that Ukrainian government forces were ready to fire back.

According to Ukrainian media reports, the meeting of the Tripartite Contact Group on Ukraine will be held in Minsk on 17th. Earlier, Denis Pushilin, the representative of the "Republic of Donetsk", said that the situation escalated because some Ukrainian government forces set off dissension. These soldiers did not accept the management of Kiev and took the lead in firing.

On October 25th, Ukraine held local elections in accordance with the new version of the Law on Local Elections. The election work was basically completed and the results were released recently. However, the eastern cities of Mali upor and Kla Si Nuo Almisk, which should have held elections according to law, cancelled their voting for some reason. These two eastern cities have important strategic significance. In this regard, Uzbek President poroshenko signed a law on holding local elections specifically for the two cities, stipulating that the two places will hold elections on the 29th of this month.

analysts believe that the escalation of the situation in Ukraine is closely related to the sudden change of the situation in Syria. Since Russia launched anti-terrorism air strikes in Syria on September 3, a new round of game between the United States, Europe and Russia has begun. The Ukrainian crisis, the European refugee problem and the fight against the "Islamic State" have formed a linkage effect. The balance and understanding established by all parties on the Ukrainian crisis have been broken, and then all parties around the Ukrainian issue will surely launch a new round of bargaining.

On the 13th, the website of Ukrainian President reported that US Vice President Biden will visit Ukraine again in early December, when he will meet with Ukrainian President poroshenko, Prime Minister Yazenuk, members of the Verkhovna Rada and representatives of social organizations. This will be Biden's fifth visit to Ukraine since he took office.

The debt problem of Ukraine and Russia needs to be solved urgently

During the reign of former Ukrainian President Yanukovych, Russia purchased 3 billion US dollars of national debt from Ukraine, which will expire in December this year. On November 9, Russian and Ukrainian finance ministers held talks on Ukraine's repayment of Russia's $3 billion debt, but no debt restructuring agreement was reached. The Ukrainian authorities said that they were unable to repay their debts, calling them commercial debts, and proposed debt restructuring within the framework of the agreement. Russia said that this is a national debt and should be paid off within the time limit, otherwise Ukraine will be declared in breach of contract.

Russian authorities indicated that once Ukraine breaches the contract, it will take Ukraine to court. Russian Finance Minister Anton Silu Anoff said that if Ukraine can't pay off its debts in December, Moscow is prepared to resort to the International Arbitration Court and the International Monetary Fund. The last time Ukraine paid the loan interest was in June 215. Now Russia expects Ukraine to pay off the loan completely in December this year.

Russian Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Stolchak said on November 1th: "We want to solve the problem in the end, and we don't want a borrower with potential in the financial market like Ukraine to bear major consequences. They should not always rely on loans from international financial organizations." He also pointed out: "This is a choice, either paying off the loan on schedule,