In order to solve the shortage of funds, enterprises hold unexpired commercial bills (including commercial acceptance bills and bank acceptance bills) and transfer funds to commercial banks on the condition of deducting certain discount interest.
Enterprises or individuals give commercial banks a certain discount rate in order to obtain the possible gains from the stock market rise, and enter the stock market as cash. However, commercial banks often turn a blind eye to the audit of capital flow because they covet higher discount rates.
Raising the deposit reserve ratio will undoubtedly have a great impact on the capital market and affect the stock market in many ways:
1. Historically, after the statutory reserve ratio was lowered in March 1998 and June1999+0/kloc-0, there was great uncertainty in the reaction of the securities market to the statutory reserve ratio adjustment. 1March 1998, the statutory reserve ratio was greatly reduced from 13% to 8%. After that, the stock market began to rise after a four-day delay, and then rose to 1420 on June 30, up 19.58% from the day of publication. 1 99911After the statutory reserve ratio was lowered from 8% to 6% in June, the stock market continued to fall by more than1month. How much impact the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio has on the broader market needs further observation.
2. From the perspective of funds, the current rapid growth of money supply is supported by solid economic fundamentals, and the value of RMB is stable. On the premise of preventing and resolving financial risks, the management may continue to maintain moderate growth of money supply in the next few years, but the flow of capital supply will be structurally adjusted and optimized. Therefore, on the whole, the growth rate of money supply will not drop significantly in the second half of this year. Of course, the supply and demand of funds will be tighter than in the first half of the year, but this tightening is limited. In the second half of this year and even next year, the overall capital of the stock market is still relatively loose.
3. At the level of listed companies, because banks want to reduce the total amount of loans, they will definitely greatly reduce the capital lending of some popular industries. The operating performance of companies in the automobile, real estate, steel and other sectors in the stock market will be greatly affected. The operating quality and profits of individual stocks in the banking sector will also be affected to varying degrees.
In addition, it should be noted that due to the expectation of RMB appreciation, a large amount of hot money poured into China, which put great pressure on RMB appreciation and greatly increased the money supply in China. For example, as more and more overseas financial institutions apply for Q FII qualification, the scale of the influx of overseas funds will continue to increase. These funds will either flow into the stock market or the housing market, and only a small part will be in the bank. Since the beginning of this year, international hot money from abroad has reached more than 20 billion US dollars, which is more than 654.38+060 billion yuan when converted into RMB. The influence of this part of funds on the stock market can not be ignored.
After years of adjustment, China's economy has entered a new boom cycle, and the stock market, as a barometer of a country's national economy, is bound to be reflected. Recently, the financial policies that affect the trend of the stock market have both advantages and disadvantages, and often every positive will be accompanied by a negative. Measures to encourage or relax capital entry into the market include: continuing to issue securities investment funds; Promote social security funds, enterprise annuities and insurance funds to enter the market one after another; Q: FII has entered and will continue to enter the China capital market; In addition, the management will allow securities companies to issue bonds and entrust a collection to entrust investment and wealth management. On the negative side, we should clean up the repurchase business of government bonds, strictly investigate illegal funds, order No.5 of the central bank, the three iron laws emphasized by the brokerage summit, and continue to issue new shares. Raising the deposit reserve ratio will undoubtedly affect the capital level of the stock market and increase the pressure on banks that illegally enter the stock market to return to banks. However, investors do not need to exaggerate the adverse impact of the increase in the deposit reserve ratio on the capital market, and should make corresponding adjustments to their investment strategies comprehensively and rationally.