Zhang Kun Jiancang Liquor increased its holdings of technology stocks, and Li Xiaoxing Chongcang Liquor reduced its holdings of new energy. ...
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"Top Flow" Zhang Kun's position is completely exposed.
The fourth quarter liquor bulk price reduction
Today, Zhang Kun's four fund products disclosed the 20021Fourth Quarterly Report. By the end of 20021,the management scale of Zhang Kun was still in the hundreds of billions, reaching10193.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 3.8105748 billion yuan compared with the end of the third quarter of last year. Among them, E Fund's blue chip selection has the largest scale, reaching 67.623 billion yuan, but compared with the scale at the end of the third quarter of last year, it has also decreased by 2.224 billion yuan.
Due to the correction of core asset stocks and the sharp withdrawal of Internet stocks, the four fund products managed by Zhang Kun suffered losses across the board last year:
E Fund Asia Select lost 29.25% last year, E Fund's high-quality enterprises held 8.22% last year, and E Fund's blue-chip select lost 9.89% last year. E Fund's high-quality selection lost 3. 10% by the end of last year after the fund change.
Zhang Kun, which is famous for investing in liquor stocks, reduced its liquor holdings in batches in the fourth quarter: LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye and Yanghe all significantly reduced their holdings. Taking E Fund's blue-chip selection as an example, the position of LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD shares decreased by 16.93%, from 1 the largest heavyweight at the end of the third quarter to the third heavyweight. Kweichow Moutai was reduced by 580,000 shares, from the second largest awkward stock to the fourth largest awkward stock.
Ping An Bank, which holds a heavy position, also reduced its shareholding by 6%, and the positions of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and China Merchants Bank remained unchanged.
At the same time, Zhang Kun has increased its funding for industries such as science and technology. For example, E Fund Blue Chip Select added Yili, Tencent Holdings and Hikvision. In the fourth quarter, and Tencent Holdings were promoted to the first embarrassing position in E Fund's blue chip selection.
In the fourth quarter report, Zhang Kun said: "To make a good investment, it is more important to keep an eye on the stadium, not the scoreboard". He believes that after 202 1 year valuation digestion, the valuation of some high-quality enterprises has become attractive. In the dimension of 3-5 years, the growth probability of enterprise performance will be projected on the growth of its market value.
Boyfriend @ Bo Shi thinks that Zhang Kun's positions are always concentrated, with 10 company as the core. Tencent is the biggest heavyweight in Zhang Kun at present, but it is passive to exceed the limit of 10%.
One of the advantages of Public Offering of Fund is that the supervision has formulated many rules, mainly to prevent risks. Therefore, there are certain restrictions on the concentration of positions. ...
Through comparison, it is found that Zhang Kun only slightly increased its position in Tencent, from 6,543,807,300 shares to 6,543,808,200 shares, with an increase of only 6,543,800 shares. Maotai also slightly reduced its position. LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Wuliangye and Yanghe also slightly reduced their positions.
From this comparison, we can see that in Zhang Kun's mind, liquor is slightly more expensive, but Tencent is slightly cheaper? But the position is not big, and it can only be called "slightly" cheap. ...
The biggest difference between high-quality selection and blue-chip selection is that high-quality selection can invest in Hong Kong stock companies other than Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect, so at present, high-quality selection holds JD.COM.
The biggest change in Asia's choice is the joining of Alibaba. This is essentially the same as Master Munger. I wonder if many people will say today that not only Munger has increased Alibaba, but Zhang Kun has also increased the new energy consumption of Alibaba Li Xiaoxing.
The message in 2022 mentioned that from the very beginning, it was considered as a public manager who was unlikely to be long-term, and now it is considered as a public manager who seems to have the ability to be long-term. "Lonely feelings are well hidden!"
It is reported that Li Xiaoxing's Yin Hua New 14 Quarterly Report shows that six stocks are newly listed in the top ten positions of the fund: Shanxi Fenjiu, Yanhu, Tianqi Lithium, Yanghe, Wuxi PharmaTech and Wuliangye.
Ganfeng Lithium Industry, Three Gorges Energy, Huichuan Technology, Tongwei, Longji and Kedali withdrew from the top ten.
He believes that the increase in liquor allocation in the fourth quarter of last year was due to the fact that "positive factors are accumulating, the reform signal is obvious, and the certainty of medium and long-term performance is strengthened". At the same time, he also believes that the negative factors facing the consumption field in 2022 will be weakened in 20021year, and the overall consumption investment will be more optimistic than that in 20021year. In the sub-sectors of consumption, we are optimistic about high-end liquor and sub-high-end liquor with national expansion potential, and increase liquor allocation in the fourth quarter, because we see that positive factors are accumulating and the reform signal is obvious, which strengthens the certainty of medium and long-term performance.
For the new energy sector, he pointed out that photovoltaic, wind power, power grid equipment, energy storage and electric vehicles will still have a lot of investment opportunities. However, the investment opportunities in these five segments have been fully explored in 202 1, and some of them are even ahead of the fundamentals. This increases the difficulty of investment in 2022. In 2022, more efforts should be made in the selection of industrial chain links and the mining of individual stocks.
The data shows that since 2022, the total market value of all listed companies in the A-share photovoltaic and wind power sectors has evaporated by 500 billion yuan.
As far as individual stocks are concerned, the latest closing price of Longji shares is 76 yuan, which is more than 24% lower than last year's high of1October 165438+, and the decline of Sunshine Power is 23%. Goldwind's closing price has also fallen by more than 28% compared with its high point.
Buffett paid a heavy price when the wind power and photovoltaic tracks in the A-share market were repeatedly sold by the fund!
According to the latest report, Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Company plans to spend 3.9 billion US dollars (about 24.7 billion yuan) to build wind and solar power generation projects, or it will become the largest single wind power generation project in the United States.
Research institutions believe that new energy is still a high-quality track, but as the overall valuation of the sector is pushed up, the track is gradually divided, and it is necessary to identify high-quality enterprises. Some subdivided tracks are still expected to continue to enjoy dividends, while other areas are facing difficulties in keeping up with profit growth. In the process of re-layout of market funds at the beginning of the new year, the market is bound to re-examine the overall new energy sector and choose the best.
Talking about strategy: Buffett's current investment model is different from his early years. In his early years, his timing was in the early stage of the opportunity, while in his later years, it was in the middle and late stage of the opportunity, which may be related to his huge management scale ... For track stocks such as photovoltaics, prosperity is good logic, and valuation compression is bad logic. When the market is good, good logic dominates, and when the market is bad, bad logic dominates. Therefore, to observe when the photovoltaic turns, the most important thing to stare at should be a negative number. Judging from the record of Zhang Kun's position adjustment, Internet stocks are particularly optimistic, with Tencent and Alibaba both gaining key positions.
In addition, many fund managers have made it clear that they are optimistic about Hong Kong stocks and Internet stocks.
Judging from the four quarterly reports, apart from E Fund Zhang Kun's substantial increase in Tencent holdings, Ruiyuan Fu Pengbo also slightly increased its holdings of Hong Kong stocks, and Zhong Geng Fund Qiu Dongrong significantly increased its holdings of Hong Kong stocks.
Take Qiu Dongrong's pilot project of middle-aged value as an example. 202 1 and 10 The Fund revised the fund contract and increased the investment scope of Hong Kong stocks. Then, the fund quickly began to bargain-hunting Hong Kong stocks, among which Yankuang Energy was even added to the first heavyweight stock, and China Offshore Oil was added to the fifth heavyweight stock.
Judging from the trend of the above-mentioned star fund managers, although individuals have their own ability circle and style, it is a prominent feature to be optimistic about Hong Kong stocks.
So will this year's opportunity be Hong Kong stocks?
Qiu Dongrong said in the quarterly report that he is more optimistic about the large-cap value stocks and some Internet stocks in Hong Kong stocks.
1. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are basically leading enterprises or central enterprises. These assets are of very high quality and can withstand the fundamental pressure best, so the risk is small. The Internet stock business of Hong Kong stocks is deeply embedded in China's economy, with a clear pattern, but the core business barriers are still relatively solid.
2. The value stocks of Hong Kong stocks are very cheap in A shares, but cheaper in Hong Kong stocks, and the corresponding dividend yield remains at a high level; Internet stocks in Hong Kong stocks are under various pressures, and their valuations have fallen to an undervalued level.