The Harm of Population Aging Almost all developed countries have entered the aging stage.

In developed countries, the main reason for the aging of the population is the increase in life expectancy.

Another reason is that the total population has stopped increasing or has experienced negative growth.

However, for the time being, the increase in life expectancy is most important.

For example, if the average life expectancy of a country is 76 years old, it means that the ratio of (76-60)/76 people is over 60 years old.

Because there are still some people who die before the age of 60, these people who die before the age of 60 have a greater impact on reducing the average life span.

Therefore, if the average life span of people over 60 years old is, the average age must be older than 76 years.

I don’t know how big it is. We can only know based on the actual situation.

Therefore, when examining a country's aging problem, the concept of life expectancy for people over 60 years old is more convenient than the concept of life expectancy for all people.

In this way, we can more clearly feel the degree of aging caused by the extension of normal life span.

The current aging population in developed countries is mainly caused by the increase in average life expectancy.

For example, if the average life span of a person in a certain country is 76 years old, the average life span of people over 60 years old should be more than 76 years old, maybe 77 years old, or 78 years old.

If calculated based on the age of 77, the country's normal population ratio and population structure can make the country's population growth rate zero.

In this population structure, the proportion of people over 60 years old in the national population is 77 - 60 = 17 17 divided by 77 = 0.221. People over 60 years old, excluding people over 60 years old, account for 22% of the national population.

The proportion of the labor force between the ages of 22 and 60 is 17/(60-22=38)=0.45.

Accounting for the total population over 22 years old, 17/(77-22=55)=0.31 This population ratio is very important. What does this population ratio mean?

It is the proportion of the elderly population to all wage earners.

In normal countries, the elderly population also needs to receive wages, which may be in the form of pensions, pension insurance, government subsidies, etc.

But the people who create wealth are the labor force between the ages of 22 and 60.

It is these people who are feeding the elderly population at the same time. When these people are old, it is the labor force at that time that feeds these people. This cycle will never be exhausted.

In fact, the labor force between the ages of 22 and 60 must provide 31% of the fruits of their labor to the elderly.

There are various methods, it can be a pension insurance model, a tax model, or an asset profit model.

In short, 31% of the labor force per capita is required to supply the elderly.

The remaining 69% is under your control, you can spend it yourself, and you have to take care of your children or family members.

In developed countries, life expectancy is basically similar to each other.

The population structure is basically similar.

They are basically close to a stagnant population structure.

A stagnant population structure means that the long-term population growth rate is near zero.

Therefore, the general labor burden in various countries is similar, with little difference.

If country A among developed countries implements a family planning policy, resulting in a severely shrinking population structure, a large degree of negative population growth will inevitably occur in the future.

This country will at some point have a higher proportion of the elderly population.

When the average life expectancy is the same, the proportion of the elderly population is much higher than in countries without family planning.

For example, in generally developed countries, the elderly population accounts for 31% of the population over the age of 22.

In this country that implements family planning, this proportion can be as high as 40%.

If calculated according to 40%.

That is, each labor force must provide 40% of the fruits of their labor to the elderly.

Your own disposable income is 60%.

(Government and other public expenditures are not taken into account.) It needs to spend 9% more per capita GDP than other developed countries.

The wealth actually created by labor is directly proportional to labor efficiency.

When labor efficiency is the same, workers' wages should be the same.

If, in these developed countries, labor efficiency is the same, therefore the wages of labor in developed countries should be the same.

The proportion of the elderly population is different. The greater the proportion of the elderly population, the greater the proportion of taxes and pensions paid by the labor force per capita.

The income per capita of the labor force is smaller.

The standard of living is correspondingly worse.

In this country that implements the family planning policy, the per capita income of the labor force is lower than that of other developed countries, 9%/69% = 13%. The corresponding income of the elderly population is also 13% lower than that of normal developed countries.

The above calculations do not take into account the extent to which the supply of labor is distorted by taxes.

Since this country has a family planning policy, the per capita tax rate is higher, which will reduce the per capita supply of labor in this country.

I don't know how much it will be reduced.

If 9% of the wealth created by oneself is expropriated, the elasticity coefficient is 1/3.

It can reduce the labor volume per capita by 3%.

This will cause the country's income to continue to decline on the basis of the original 13% lower than other developed countries with the same efficiency.

The decrease is (9%+3%)/69%=17.4%.

This is the effect of the family planning policy.