65438+February 17 The Ministry of Finance released 20 1 1 fiscal revenue and expenditure in 2009. The data shows that the national general public budget revenue is 1- 1 1. The reporter of Time Weekly noted that this growth rate was the same as that of June 1- 10, which was the fourth consecutive month of positive growth since August.
Tang Jianwei, chief researcher of the Financial Research Center of Bank of Communications, told Time Weekly: "Under the pressure of large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction and economic growth this year, the fiscal revenue of11maintained a year-on-year growth rate of 3.8%, and there was no negative growth. In the second half of the year, it also stabilized and rebounded, which shows that China's economy is still very resilient. It is expected that the year-on-year growth rate of fiscal revenue will remain stable, but it is basically difficult to reach the year-on-year growth rate of 6.2% of 20 18, and it is very good to achieve a year-on-year growth rate of 4%. "
At the same time, Time Weekly reporter noted that under the overall situation that the national general public budget revenue growth rate is stable at 3.8% year-on-year, the central general public budget revenue and local general public budget revenue are also divided.
The data shows that during the period of 1- 1 1, the general budget revenue of the central government was 8611600 million yuan, up by 4.8% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.4 percentage points higher than that of1-kloc-0/. However, local governments are not so lucky-in June, 5438+0- 1 1, the local government's revenue at this level was 9285 1 billion yuan, up 3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that in June1-0/,since August.
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"The responsibility of local governments is heavier, so the financial pressure is greater." Tang Jianwei explained that from the perspective of alleviating financial pressure, land sales are one of the important sources of local income increase, but this year we have also seen some good signs, mainly in the division of tax revenue between the central and local governments, and put forward the late collection of some tax items of consumption tax to increase local income sources.
During the year, 5.7 trillion yuan of land was sold to make up the income gap.
On the other hand, the year-on-year growth rate of local general public budget revenue slowed down, which is that the budget revenue of local government funds at the same level began to increase.
According to the financial revenue and expenditure data of111,the income of local government funds at this level is 6,436.5 billion yuan, up by 10% year-on-year. This is the sixth consecutive month of positive year-on-year growth in the budget revenue of local government funds since June1-June. This trajectory is consistent with the local land transfer income-1-1,and the local land transfer income increased by 8. 1% year-on-year. According to the local land transfer income of 5,336.2 billion yuan in 2065 and 438+0- 1 1 in 2008, the local land transfer income in 2009 was 5,773.77 billion yuan.
"It is not ruled out that the local fiscal revenue is tight, so it will increase its efforts to sell land. However, the income from land transfer is also affected by the actual situation of the city. " Tang Jianwei said.
The Times Weekly reporter noted that since the beginning of this year, the local land transfer income has shown a steady increase after a significant decline. Among them,1-March is a node, and1-February, the local land transfer income was 804.86 billion yuan, down 5.3% year-on-year. After that, the downward trend continued in June 5438+10-March, and it fell to the low point of the year, down 9.5% compared with the same period of last year. Since then, the local land transfer income has started to grow steadily, successfully getting rid of the negative growth from June to July, reaching a year-on-year growth of 3. 1%, and now it has reached the highest year-on-year growth rate of 8. 1%.
Behind the trend in the first half of the year is "the credit market has increased after the Spring Festival, and the financing difficulty of housing enterprises has decreased. In March and April this year, there was a wave of' Xiaoyangchun' in various cities, and the popularity of cities was high. " Zhongyuan Real Estate Research Center once analyzed and pointed out.
"From the situation in the second half of the year, although the supervision has kept up rapidly, especially the financial supervision has increased, the overall urban transaction data is still growing positively because the housing enterprises have increased the breadth of land acquisition and the local land supply has also increased." Jaco, dean of 58 Anjuke Real Estate Research Institute Branch, once pointed out in an interview with Times Weekly reporter.
But over-reliance on real estate is not a long-term solution.
"The cooling of the land market continues." Jaco said. The data shows that in June, the land acquisition area of real estate development enterprises was 5438+0-1.72 million square meters, down 14.2% year-on-year, and the land transaction price was1196 billion yuan, down1year-on-year. However, in terms of premium rate, the data of cities in 165438+ 10 showed that the average premium rate of land in 300 cities nationwide was 8% in 20 19, 165438+ 10, down 0.3 percentage points from last month.
According to the fiscal revenue data of1-1in June, although the revenue from local land transfer began to increase positively year-on-year, its contribution to local fiscal revenue was not as strong as that of 20 18. The data shows that from June 20 19 to June 20 10, the revenue from local land transfer was 5,773.77 billion yuan, accounting for 89.7% of the budget revenue of local government funds, which was 0.5 percentage points lower than that of the whole year of 20 18. The contribution rate to the total local fiscal revenue (including local general public budget revenue and local government fund budget revenue) was 36.7%, which was 65,438+0.8 percentage points lower than that in 2065,438+08.
"This year, the city is not prosperous. Therefore, although the local government hopes to vigorously sell land, the collection of gold is not satisfactory, so its contribution to finance is limited. " Tang Jianwei pointed out.
In 2020, finance will focus on "improving quality and increasing efficiency"
Whether it is to increase local fiscal revenue or complete the land supply plan, near the end of the year, the land supply in various places has begun to accelerate obviously, and it seems that we can't bear to miss the "last bus" of land transfer at the end of the year.
According to the data of the Central Reference Institute, in the second week of February 12 (from February 9th 15, 12), 40 major cities monitored by the Central Reference Institute, including Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, launched 348 cases of various types of land, an increase of 59.6% over last week, with a transaction area of 65,438 cases. The supply in the first week (from 65438+February 2 to 65438+February 8) also increased compared with last month.
"The local dependence on land transfer is very obvious." Wan Zhe, chief economist of China National Gold Group, told Times Weekly reporter bluntly, "But under the pressure of the overall economic and financial situation and the real estate market situation in China, local finance has also ushered in an opportunity of transformation. This transformation not only requires local finance to get rid of the original growth path dependence, but also requires local finance to improve quality and efficiency. "
"Improving quality and increasing efficiency" is the latest requirement of the just-concluded 20 19 Central Economic Work Conference for fiscal policy in 2020.
From February/65438 to February 10 to 12, the Central Economic Work Conference was held in Beijing. The meeting put forward the fiscal policy for next year: continue to implement a proactive fiscal policy, vigorously improve quality and efficiency, pay more attention to structural adjustment, resolutely reduce general expenditures, do a good job in ensuring key areas, and support grassroots to ensure wages, operations and basic people's livelihood.
"Next year's fiscal policy is set as' improving quality and increasing efficiency'. It is expected that fiscal expenditure will converge, and improving the quality and effect of fiscal use is the focus." Tang Jianwei believes.
In addition, increasing the proportion of profits paid by state-owned enterprises, reducing expenses and reforming the division of financial affairs between the central and local governments are also solutions. Ren Zeping, chief economist of a certain group, pointed out that in 2020, the angles of financial efforts include appropriately expanding the deficit, increasing the amount of special debts, optimizing the way of tax reduction and fee reduction, increasing the proportion of profits paid by state-owned enterprises, reducing expenditures, and reforming the division of financial affairs between the central and local governments. Among them, the ways to alleviate the local financial pressure are: increasing the proportion of profits paid by state-owned enterprises, and avoiding "unreasonable charges" and other behaviors that worsen the business environment in the context of the downward growth of fiscal revenue; Reduce expenditures other than people's livelihood and social security, streamline institutional personnel, optimize expenditure structure, and improve the efficiency of fiscal expenditure; Reform the financial system, delegate power to local governments, stabilize the 50-50 share of value-added tax between the central and local governments, and gradually distribute consumption tax to local governments.
"Shadow banking can also effectively cover the position of local financial resources," Wan Zhe said. "For local infrastructure projects, shadow banking can also provide some funds for local governments. However, in recent years, due to the financial risks brought by shadow banking, supervision has managed it to a certain extent, but it has also caused local financial tension. 20 18 12, Yi Gang, governor of the central bank, said at the Chang 'an Forum that shadow banking is actually a necessary supplement to the financial market, and the expression has been adjusted. Guo Shuqing, Chairman of the China Banking Regulatory Commission, also indicated that he would continue to dismantle the shadow banking during his investigation in Jiangxi in June this year 165438+ 10/4. In the future, if we can sort out local finance and debt, adhere to the principle of credit neutrality and standardize the shadow banking business, shadow banking can also become an effective supplement to local financial resources. "
Reduce taxes and fees next year to strengthen the sense of enterprise acquisition.
"Tax reduction and fee reduction have a significant impact on fiscal revenue during the year, but the sense of acquisition of enterprises still needs to be improved." Marriott said.
At present, the data on the scale of tax reduction and fee reduction in China has not been updated, staying in the first three quarters, which is178.34 billion yuan. However, according to the data of fiscal revenue, the policy of tax reduction and fee reduction continues to exert its strength-the data shows that the tax revenue of general public local governments in China was1-1496.99 billion yuan in that month, with a year-on-year increase of only 0.5%. Among them, the personal income tax has dropped significantly-1- 1 1. The national personal income tax revenue was 950.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.8%. The year-on-year growth rate of value-added tax revenue is also declining-in June, the domestic value-added tax revenue of 55438+0- 1. 1 was 5,794.8 billion yuan, up 2.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 0.9 percentage point lower than that of June1.
"At present, the year-on-year growth rate of China's fiscal revenue has entered a climbing track. On the one hand, we can see the resilience of China's economy, but on the other hand, there are some concerns. " Tang Jianwei pointed out the other side of the coin. "From the perspective of tax reduction and fee reduction policies, we hope to see a slowdown in fiscal revenue growth. Because this shows that the policy is exerting strength. "
Wan Zhe also holds this view. She told the Times Weekly reporter: "From the data, the financial pressure in China is still relatively high. This shows that the intensity of tax reduction and fee reduction is also great. However, when we investigated at the grassroots level, we also found that some enterprises reported that the pressure on taxes and fees was increasing instead of decreasing, especially small and medium-sized private enterprises. "
"This year is accompanied by large-scale tax reduction and fee reduction, as well as the standardization of fiscal taxation. In the past, taxes and fees of some enterprises were in a relatively flexible state, such as social security rates, rate levels and flexible space for collection. However, with the standardization of fiscal revenue this year, some flexible tax and fee items were strictly managed in the past. So overall, the tax burden of enterprises has increased. " Wan Zhe explained.
In this regard, Wan Zhe suggested that it is reasonable and necessary to standardize fiscal taxation, but the tax burden of enterprises in China needs to be reduced.
The Report on Corporate Tax Burden in China compiled by Chongyang Financial Research Institute of Renmin University of China shows that the total corporate tax burden rate is calculated by dividing the total tax actually paid by the enterprise by the added value of the enterprise. From 2008 to 20 17, the corporate tax burden in China showed a trend of first rising and then falling, but the total corporate tax burden in each year was above 20%, and the total tax burden in 20 12 was the highest, reaching 26.
"From the direct comparison of numerical values, China's macro tax burden is not heavy compared with other countries. However, because China is currently in a tax structure dominated by indirect taxes and direct taxes (mainly corporate income tax), the main taxpayers are enterprises, so the tax burden of enterprises is actually relatively heavy. " The above report said.
In this regard, Ren Zeping suggested that in 2020, we should optimize the way of tax reduction and fee reduction, from the current tax reduction pattern mainly aimed at value-added tax to reducing the social security rate and corporate income tax rate, so as to enhance the sense of enterprise acquisition.