A-shares experienced significant adjustments before and after the holidays, mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. So how is the situation this year different from last year? Is it necessary to reduce positions in advance? We analyze the specific situation in detail.

Different from crossing the river by feeling the stones last year, the government’s preparations for the new crown epidemic this year can be said to be in place. The National Health Commission issued early requirements for people returning home during the Spring Festival, such as the need for nucleic acid testing and The seven-day quarantine requirement greatly increases the difficulty of returning home or traveling. It is foreseeable that the mobility of the population will drop significantly during the Spring Festival this year. Brokerages also believe that the probability of a large-scale outbreak of the epidemic like last year is relatively small.

First of all, how long is your investment period? If you have liquidity needs such as buying a house or a car after the Spring Festival, you can be safe now because A-shares will rise more in the short term and become more volatile. But if you are a long-term investor, you can keep it for 3-5 years or more, and you can continue to hold it because the domestic economy is improving and residents’ wealth is transferring from financial products to funds. These two long-term trends have not changed. Second, It is the fund managers who take the initiative to choose the time and stocks, and the results are usually better than ours.

As for the specific methods of reducing positions, the first one is the target rate of return method. For example, for fixed investment partial stock funds, you can generally set the profit-taking target to 15% annualized. It can also be adjusted flexibly. When the market When investing at a low level (below 3,000 points), the take-profit point is set higher, such as an annualized rate of 20%. When investing at a high market level (above 3,500 points), the take-profit point is set lower, such as an annualized rate of 10%.

The second is the maximum retracement stop profit method. This method of building a position can prevent us from missing the unilateral rising market, and is suitable for investors who are afraid of selling too early and are unwilling to do so. Assume that the maximum drawdown is 10% and the target cumulative rate of return is 30%. When the rate of return reaches 30%, we will not make a profit first, but continue to observe. If the fund continues to rise, it will rise to a maximum of 40%, and then start to fall. When the return falls, If the withdrawal exceeds 10%, that is, when the yield drops to 30%, we should stop profit. The size of the drawdown rate varies from fund to fund. The maximum drawdown of balanced funds can be set smaller, such as 5%, while the maximum drawdown of industry theme funds can be set larger, such as 10%.

To summarize, during the Spring Festival this year, the impact of the epidemic on the stock market is far less than that in 2020. However, considering that A-shares have experienced a large increase in the beginning of the year, friends with high positions and relatively short investment periods can choose appropriate ways to reduce their positions. , appropriately reduce positions, and those with low positions and long investment periods can choose to continue to hold and invest at low prices before the liquidity inflection point occurs.