Zhao Yi in 2020.

Cui 202 1

Readers familiar with funds should be familiar with the above three people. They also have the same name-Public Offering of Fund annual income champion, who is "someone else's child", but few people know the "vice monitor" at the bottom of the annual performance, unless he is the "victim" of the performance of these funds. . .

There is a "champion curse" in the fund circle, that is, the fund with the best performance in the previous year will be dragged down in the second year. Although this effect is not obvious in the last two years, it is reasonable. To achieve the annual revenue champion, positions are often very concentrated, catching up with the most enthusiastic time of the year. When the strong period of positions in the industry has passed, it will face greater adjustment.

Maybe someone patted his head and said, "I understand! You have to choose the worst performance in the whole year, because the decline is fierce enough and thorough enough, and the rebound will definitely be the biggest in the coming year! " . Is this idea reasonable if it is used as a reference for fund investment? Bian Xiao doesn't know that bold assumptions are ok, but you need to be careful to verify them.

Today we will try to prove it, but instead of analyzing the best and worst grades, we will divide the students in the class into five groups according to the grades of the previous year from high to low, namely:

0-20(%) group: the top 20% funds with the best performance last year, followed by 20-40(%) group 40-60(%) group 60-80(%) group 80- 100(%) group, that is, the bottom 20% funds with the worst performance last year.

At the same time, when doing statistics, according to the high (not less than 60%) and low (not more than 40%) ratio of fund stock positions at the end of last year, the fund is divided into:

Senior group (stock fund group): ordinary stock funds and partial stock mixed funds.

Lower-level group (fixed income+group): Tier-1 debt base, Tier-2 debt base and partial debt mixed fund, and statistics are made respectively.

Let's look at the performance of different groups of funds in the future:

I. Senior Equity Fund Group

Description:

1, the red highlighted box in each statistical year represents the best performance in the statistical period, and the green highlighted box represents the worst performance;

2. Because there is a big gap between fund ups and downs after each statistical year, in order to facilitate comparison, we subtract the average performance of each group of funds from the average performance of the total sample funds to get the difference. The greater the difference, the better the overall performance of this group of funds, and vice versa.

Source: Wind, Good Buy Research Institute; Deadline for data: 2021-12-31

Data display:

1. During the five years from 20 16 to 2020, a group of funds with the worst performance in each statistical year (80- 100 group) still performed the worst in the next four statistics, and in the * * 19 statistical scenario, it was 65438+.

2.20 18 is a special year. The group of funds with the worst performance achieved obvious performance advantages in the following four statistical cycles, while the top 20% funds with the best performance continued to perform poorly in the following periods.

What is the reason? Bian Xiao believes that almost all industries recorded negative returns in 20 18, and only a few industries with low valuation, such as banking and energy, experienced a small decline and were able to achieve the top 20% of the performance in 18. For example, Bian Xiao found that in 18, the growth rate of the eastern region increased by 2.36%. The funds with the worst performance, such as theme strategy A of ICBC Credit Suisse, which still held a heavy position in the new energy sector at the end of 18, fell by 37.54% for the whole year.

After that, we all know the market. The Mao Index headed by Maotai (the core asset) and the Ning Index headed by Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd. (the growth of technology) made great strides, but the low valuation sector never recovered until the second half of last year.

Is it more worthwhile to hold a fund that has not been adjusted in the long bear market? From the perspective of behavioral finance, Bian Xiao thinks that this is probably caused by "disposition effect" and "sunk cost", and even fund managers as professional investors can't escape these behaviors. Disposition effect means that investors tend to sell profitable stocks and keep losses when managing their portfolios, which will make investors easily miss the opportunity to make adjustments earlier in the long bear market, leading to increased losses and more losses. Loss to a certain extent, it is impossible to sell, because the sunk cost of selling at this time is huge and psychologically unacceptable. The best way is to continue until the reversal begins.

This may give me some enlightenment: in the long bear market, those funds with the worst performance may indeed be better "bargain-hunting" tools.

Second, lower-level fixed income+groups

Source: Wind, Good Buy Research Institute; Deadline for data: 2021-12-31

Fixed income+group and stock fund group show the same characteristics:

1, the fund with the worst performance in each statistical year is still at the bottom in the subsequent statistical cycle, while the fund with the best performance will continue to perform well;

2.20 18, the fund with the worst performance in the bear market performed best in the subsequent market, and the fund with the best performance in the bear market performed worst afterwards.

abstract

Through the above data display and our analysis, it is not difficult to find that the fund with the best performance in the year will continue to be the best in the short, medium and long term.

Bian Xiao believes that the performance of the fund ultimately depends on the cognitive level of the fund manager. Even though a small number of people may really win by betting on the track by luck, it is undeniable that this group is the best, and it is reasonable to achieve relatively better results in the subsequent management process. However, we also briefly analyzed that after a long bear market, perhaps those funds with the worst performance are more worthy of bargain hunting, so everyone knows how to choose funds ~