Because the social and economic development and consumption level are stable for a long time, we can refer to the bank deposit interest. The benchmark interest rate of central bank loans 1.5% a year, the pension insurance premium will rise by more than 3%, which is much higher than the bank deposit interest. On the other hand, the endowment insurance premium has continuously increased by 17 times, reaching a high level on average. Because the base is large and the increase ratio is not reduced, the pension fund will not be able to cope with the pressure. At the same time, most of the old people who now receive employee pensions can maintain their basic living expenses.

The adjustment of budget quota means that everyone will raise the same old-age insurance premium. This adjustment will be inclined for the elderly with relatively low pension insurance premiums, which is conducive to ensuring their pension level.

The key to the adjustment of linkage is the long-term payment and the incentive system for long-term payment, which is linked to the payment period and pension level. Tilt adjustment is a special policy for the elderly and retired workers in hard and remote areas, and the adjustment level can be slightly improved.

Through these three adjustment methods, it seems that the increase or decrease of pension for the elderly with relatively low pension insurance will generally be less than the average level. For example, for the elderly with relatively high endowment insurance, the promotion amount in 20 yuan may be reduced compared with the previous year, and for the elderly with relatively low endowment insurance, it can only be reduced by about 10.

This year's pension adjustment notice has not yet implemented a unified national plan, but China has made further efforts to promote the national overall planning of enterprise employees' pensions. Compared with previous years, this year's pension adjustment notice has one more sentence: "The local finance will give some subsidies to the local adjustment of new expenditure allocation assets for pension insurance for retired employees." This is also the national rules and regulations for coordinating the basic old-age insurance for enterprise employees, and the policy of establishing a responsibility sharing mechanism between the intermediate government and the provincial government.

There is such a provision in the Social Insurance Law that when the social endowment insurance payment is insufficient, it will be subsidized by the government. Although the accumulated balance of their social endowment insurance last year was RMB 5,000 billion, this year, it is really a big test for the pension fund to promote the current policy of delaying the payment of pensions and ensure that the pensions of retired people are paid in full and on time. Without financial subsidies from government departments, I firmly believe that the pension adjustment will not be 4% this year.

In the next five years or 10 years, in that long term, it is unlikely that the endowment insurance premium will skyrocket or return to the increase of more than 6%. The fundamental reason is the aggravation of social aging, and the arrival of retirement peak will test the payment ability of pension funds. In addition, the level of old-age insurance premium has been relatively high, the level of national economic development and consumption has also stabilized, and high growth is no longer in line with reality. In fact, retired workers are already very happy to get their pensions raised every year. Don't blindly follow suit. Keeping healthy is the most important thing.