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"Tie Gongji" has risen strongly and is so bullish. How long can it be bullish?

Stimulated by the release of important information at the recent executive meeting of the State Council, infrastructure stocks have set off a daily limit trend this week. Chengdu Road and Bridge, Tibet Tianlu and other stocks have risen by more than 40% for the week, and industries such as steel and building materials have surged.

With the rise of "Tie Gongji", how long can such strength be maintained?

On the disk, infrastructure stocks set off a rising trend. This week, the performance of infrastructure stocks was particularly eye-catching.

The leading stock Chengdu Luqiao has been trading at the daily limit for six consecutive times since July 19. It was so "monstrous" that it was suspended for verification on Friday due to the excessive increase.

Tibet Tianlu has been in the red for 5 consecutive trading days, with a cumulative increase of more than 40% in a week; Tengda Construction has recorded 3 consecutive daily limits, with an increase of 24.8% this week; China Communications Construction, Beixin Road and Bridge, Zhengping Shares, China Railway Construction, Sichuan Road and Bridge, Pudong Construction

This week’s gains have exceeded 10%.

The strong rise of infrastructure stocks has driven the rise of the entire industry chain.

Data show that according to Shenwan's first-level industries, the top three industries leading the gains this week are steel (up 8.05%), construction decoration (up 7.04%) and building materials (up 6.47%), with increases far exceeding those of other industries.

Among them, 51 steel stocks and 18 cement manufacturing industry stocks all had positive weekly gains.

In terms of individual stocks, Shaogang Songshan (19.76%), Bayi Iron and Steel (19.35%), Tianshan Co., Ltd. (15.97%), Jidong Cement (15.75%), Maanshan Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. (15.51%) and other *** 19 stocks this week

The cumulative increases are all above 10%.

Behind the rising tide of the infrastructure industry chain is the active rush for funds from all walks of life.

Data show that the top five industries with the largest net inflows of main funds this week are steel (2.115 billion yuan), banks (898 million yuan), construction decoration (707 million yuan), real estate (591 million yuan) and building materials (536 million yuan).

billion), with net inflows exceeding 500 million yuan.

Judging from the after-hours rankings, infrastructure stocks are also favored by institutions and well-known hot money.

On July 24, "Brother Zhao" bought Jidong Cement for 45.7402 million yuan, and the two institutions bought a total of 58.6247 million yuan. The well-known hot money Shenwan Hongyuan Shanghai Dongchuan Road Sales Department in Minhang District bought 33.2894 million yuan, successfully pushing it to the top.

daily limit.

Pudong Construction, Shandong Road and Bridge, Tibet Tianlu, etc. have all received attention from institutional seats this week.

News: The State Council executive meeting released positive signals. Recently, the State Council executive meeting released positive signals, which directly stimulated the strong performance of the infrastructure sector this week.

On July 23, the State Council executive meeting deployed fiscal and financial policies to better play the role of supporting the expansion of domestic demand and structural adjustment to promote the development of the real economy; it also determined measures to promote effective investment around strengthening weaknesses, increasing stamina, and benefiting people's livelihood.

The meeting listened to a report on further fiscal and financial support for the development of the real economy, and called for maintaining macroeconomic policy stability, insisting on not engaging in "flood irrigation"-style strong stimulus, proactively adjusting fine-tuning and targeted regulation according to changes in the situation, and coping with the uncertainty of the external environment.

Keep the economy operating within a reasonable range.

Fiscal and financial policies must work together to more effectively serve the real economy and more effectively serve the overall macroeconomic situation.

Guosheng Securities Macro Xiongyuan team believes that the executive meeting has released a signal that policies will be further relaxed.

In the second half of the year, there will be a big fiscal push, focusing on tax cuts and the acceleration of local special debt. There is a high probability that infrastructure will stop falling and stabilize in the second half of the year.

The meeting proposed two major fiscal measures to be more proactive. One is to "focus on tax cuts and fee reductions" and the other is to "accelerate the issuance and use of 1.35 trillion yuan of local government special bonds this year" (combined with last year's unused limit, special bonds in the second half of the year

The issuance amount can reach 1.2 trillion), and it is clearly stated that "early results will be achieved in promoting infrastructure projects under construction."

The macro team of Northeast Securities stated that they had pointed out in the previous mid-year outlook report that infrastructure would bottom out and rebound.

After the release of the new asset management regulations implementation notice and other documents on July 20, they once again reminded that the relevant financial regulatory documents have significantly relaxed the non-standard credit, and together with the previous monetary policy adjustments, it confirmed the decision-makers' concerns about the internal and external pressure on the economy, confirming

The central bank has adjusted the pace of financial management.

In addition to continuing to mention reasonable and sufficient liquidity in terms of monetary policy, this executive meeting emphasized maintaining a moderate scale of social financing, further establishing the improvement of the environment for sharp credit contraction, and strengthening the logic of bottoming out and rebounding in infrastructure investment.

Infrastructure investment growth in the first half of the year was 7.3%, much lower than the 21.1% growth rate in the same period last year.

With the implementation of relevant policies to promote stable growth of effective investment, they continue to maintain their judgment that infrastructure construction will bottom out and rebound in the second half of the year, and are firmly optimistic about a rebound in infrastructure investment.

Fundamentals: The steel and cement industry has outstanding performance. In addition to favorable macro policies, good performance has strengthened the rising logic of the infrastructure industry chain.