First, the basic situation of the price changes in the bond market in modern China.
China's modern bond issuance began at 1894. At that time, in order to make up for the emptiness of the national treasury, the Qing Dynasty began to follow the western public debt system to issue bonds. There are three kinds of bonds issued in Qing Dynasty: interest loans, Zhao Xin stocks and patriotic bonds. It is estimated that the actual cashier is less than 50 million Liang. These bonds are basically not in circulation, so there is no price change. After the Revolution of 1911, the issuance of public bonds increased gradually, and the demand for transactions became stronger and stronger. 19 18 In February, Beiping Stock Exchange was established. From 19 14 to 1927, a bond issuance and trading market with Beijing as the center and China Bank and Bank of Communications as the underwriting entities has basically taken shape. However, with the transfer of Kuomintang government agencies to Shanghai, the securities market centered on Beijing began to decline, and the bond issuance and trading market centered on Shanghai basically took shape around 1929. 98% of the bonds traded in the bond market are government bonds, and the price changes are mainly government bonds. 1937 after the outbreak of War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression, due to the unknown fate of the Kuomintang government, the issuance and trading of bonds declined. On the other hand, because there was no continuous data to study before the ten years of the Republic of China (192 1), this paper mainly studies the bond price changes during the period of 1922- 1937.
Let's first analyze the price changes of the bond market from 1922 to 1929.
1922, the bond market was the most active in sorting out 6% bonds and financial bonds, and all bond markets fell from June to July. Due to the influence of information exchange, the securities market is extremely depressed. After July, the government adopted the method of flexible distribution of tariff balance, guaranteed the guarantee fund, and the bond market began to rise gradually. Although the bond market fell in the middle because of direct war and other reasons, the overall trend is upward, with only 96 bonds falling because there is no guarantee fund.
1923 At the beginning of the year, due to the legend that Anglian, the General Tax Department of Customs, was unwilling to keep the fund, the bond market panicked and the price fell. After Anshi clarified the facts, the monetary policy was loose and the bond market rebounded strongly. Since then, due to the postponement of the lottery for financial bonds in April, the political situation changed in July, and the autumn harvest in 165438+ 10, the money supply has tightened, and only the price of supplementary lottery for financial bonds has increased, while others have declined.
Entering 1924, the bond market generally rose. However, due to the tightening of monetary policy in August, there was no public debt fund in 1996, which caused a storm in the bond market. Coupled with political turmoil, floods and droughts, the bond market plummeted. It was not until the end of the war in 65438+ 10 that the bond market began to improve.
During the period of 1925, the bond market rose rapidly in the first four months. Until May, the trading of tea and silkworm cocoons needed funds, and the bond market rose slightly. In addition, the May 30 tragedy occurred, and the Shanghai stock market went on strike for 25 days in mid-June. On June+10, 5438, the Zhejiang army arrived in Shanghai and the troops retreated. In June, 5438+065438+ 10, financial bonds and 6% bonds were drawn, and people's hearts were slightly stable, and the bond market gradually picked up. On the whole, the bond market of 1925 tends to rise, except for a slight fluctuation in the middle.
From 65438 to 0926, the situation of the bond market was relatively stable, the repayment of principal and interest could be held as scheduled, and the bond price did not fluctuate greatly. Because of the high interest rate of public debt, buying public debt has become a good investment form. This period is a relatively stable period since the issuance of China public bonds in modern times.
1927, the bond market turned sharply. During the period of 65438+ 10, 6% of the bond prices were still above 80 yuan, and fell to 36 yuan in August.
The price of seven-year long-term treasury bonds was around 70 yuan during the period of 1, and fell to 33 yuan in August, and its price was the lowest in recent years. After August, the political situation has gradually stabilized, and it is widely rumored in the market that the interest of various bonds arranged this year can be paid on time. So the bond market began to rise at the end of the year.
The bond market of 1928 is extremely prosperous. Cigarette bonds, munitions bonds, 8% aftermath bonds, short-term financial bonds, financial
Long-term bonds were issued during the year, and the bond market was not affected by new bonds. Although the bond market once fell due to the Jinan tragedy in May, the overall trend of the whole year showed an upward trend.
During the period of 1929, although the situation changed, the bond market generally declined, but there was no drastic change. (Note: For details of the bond market price changes during the above period, please refer to the compilation of Nankai economic index resources edited by Kong Min, published by China Social Sciences Press 1998, pp. 468-470: Yang: China Finance, published by Liming Bookstore 193 1. )
Next, the change of bond price from 1930 to 1936 is analyzed.
On September 1930, bond prices began to rise. With the change of political situation, the bond market continued to fall from 193 1 in April to 1932 in February, with a price difference of 45 yuan. From May 1932 to June 1933, the bond price fluctuated up and down, but it fluctuated little. After 1933 and 1, the bond market began to rise, and the price difference was around 45 yuan. Due to the economic depression, industrial and commercial depression, the profit income is not as good as that of securities speculation, so the speculation of public debt is fierce and the transaction is vigorous, and the daily ticket amount often exceeds 30 million yuan. 193 1 The average monthly turnover reached 278 million yuan. 1932 was closed for several months due to the Shanghai War, and the total turnover decreased slightly. The average monthly turnover of 1933 exceeds the par value by 265 million yuan, while the average monthly ticket amount of 1934 in the first five months is actually more than 324 million yuan, but most transactions are short selling and short selling, and the delivery ratio is very low. 1936 1 With the deterioration of the economic situation and the reduction of taxes, the deficit of the security fund is increasing day by day, and the bond market price is falling. 1March, 936, domestic debts were reorganized again. By the end of February of 65438+, the price has not changed much during this period and has been hovering. The price began to rise at 1937.
The above price trend can also be seen from the monthly high and low market chart of the tightened bonds from 1930 to 1937.
Attached drawings ({f70d02})
Figure 1 Monthly maximum and minimum market prices of the tightened bonds (Note: For the figure of 1930, see Economic Statistics Quarterly).
1932 March,No. 1 Volume,No. 1: 1932- 1934. For the figures in June, see Yingjie: China Domestic Debt Watch in Modern Times and Oriental Magazine No.3/kloc-
Second, the government's credit degree, bond yields and bond prices fluctuate.
The main subject matter of China's modern securities market transactions is national debt. Therefore, unlike the bond market in capitalist countries, which mainly focuses on corporate stocks and corporate bonds, one of the main factors that affect the price fluctuation of modern bond market in China is the government's debt credibility and bond yield.
1. The characteristics of modern China public debt
The issuance of national debt in modern China is a product of imitating the West, and most of them specify collateral, while capitalist countries rarely specify collateral. This is mainly due to people's lack of understanding of bonds, and the credit of national debt is not very reliable. Only by providing collateral to ensure timely payment can we win the trust of the people and issue bonds smoothly. In modern China, there is little difference between public debt and national debt, except that the term of national debt is slightly shorter, and the principal and interest are repaid every month, while public debt is repaid by drawing lots regularly. However, in capitalist countries, there is a big difference between public debt and national debt: the term of public debt is very long, usually at least thirty or forty years, and it can be repaid at will within the term, while national debt is only a temporary loan. In addition, the political situation in modern China was changeable, the stability of the securities market was worse than that in capitalist countries, and the price changed greatly. Therefore, bonds are often the object of speculation.
2. The influence of credit degree and yield on the securities market
As government bonds are the main subject matter of modern China bond market transactions, the credit degree of government debt naturally became the main factor affecting the bond price in modern China stock market. Government credit mainly depends on whether the guarantee funds are stable and whether the fund custody is determined. The security fund is consolidated, there is a real source of debt repayment funds, and prices are rising steadily; Without the guarantee fund, the bond market will fall and the price will fluctuate. For example, during the Beiyang government period, due to the stability of funds, debts rose steadily. From the first year of the Republic of China to the eleventh year of the Republic of China, although the government issued new bonds every year, due to the completion of bond sorting and drawing lots to repay the principal and interest year by year, the credit was getting better and more buyers were coming. Postal savings, pensions, school funds, and personal property purchases all regard public debt as a good investment method, so the bond market is on the rise. New bonds issued by the government can also be sold at a discount of more than 50-60%. The "96 public debt" fell because of the shortage of guarantee funds, rose because of the rumors of the fund landing, and fell because the Kuomintang refused to admit it. The main reason for its sharp rise and fall is the existence of guarantee. Is the fund custody determined? (Note: For example, the government bonds issued by Beiping will be entrusted to the State Administration of Taxation for safekeeping after the cases are sorted out, and the power to repay the principal and interest will be vested in the State Administration of Taxation. ) also often causes changes in the bond market. If Anglian leaves, the price will fall. In addition, after the national army made Nanjing its capital, the government has not given clear guarantees for various domestic debts, which aroused people's doubts and led to the decline of bond prices. The debt guarantee fund issued by the Kuomintang government is also relatively stable because of its public management, open revenue and expenditure and good credit. Other reasons that affect credit, such as the size of market capacity and the date of drawing lots for repayment. , it will also cause price fluctuations.
Table11928 ——1937 Comparison of bond prices and returns
The income index is based on annual 12%= 100, and the price index is based on the end of July 1937.7 = 100.
age
Index return percentage is too high or too low.
1928 69.6 17.3 …… ……
1929 8 1.0 14.8 …… ……
1930 68.0 17.7 …… ……
193 1 62.2 19.3 107 55
1932 49. 1 24.4 77.7 49.5
1933 7 1.4 16.8 92.9 58.7
1934 96.8 12.4 109.8 80. 1
1935 92.4 130 1 10.4 86. 1
1936 103.9 1 1.6 106.6 97. 1
1937 (June)137.48.7116104
Source: Arthur C. Young: Financial and Economic Situation in China, China Social Sciences Press, 198 1 Edition.
Bond yield is the main factor that attracts all walks of life (mainly banks) to issue bonds, so it is also another key factor that affects the price change of the securities market. From the period of Beiyang government to the period of Kuomintang government, a large number of national debts were issued. During the Beiyang government period, it issued 60120,000 yuan, and the Kuomintang government issued 2.6 billion yuan from 1927 to 1936 (calculated by Mr. Qian Jiaju). The reason why these bonds can be successfully raised is mainly because the bond prices are low and can bring high returns. In the statement of income and expenditure and net profit of Jincheng Bank (1917-1927), the column of securities profit and loss shows that the average income of securities accounts for 1 1.9% of the total profit, sometimes as high as 20.6438+0%. (Note: Financial Research Office of Shanghai Branch of China People's Bank: Historical Materials of Jincheng Bank, Shanghai People's Publishing House, 1983, p. 40. ) 1927, in the case of military and political instability, the Shanghai banking community was willing to subscribe for bonds because the government offered extremely favorable conditions, although there was no discount at that time (note: the holder cashed the unexpired bills to the bank, and the bank set a certain discount rate according to the market interest rate and the credibility of the bills, and then deducted the interest from the discount date to the maturity date and paid the balance to the holder. ) commitment. 1in the spring of 928, in order to make the issuance of national debt more smooth, the Kuomintang government adopted the method of discounting bonds to Shanghai bankers, thus establishing a quite active bond trading market, and the high yield made the banking sector happy to underwrite these bonds. As shown in table 1, the average interest rate of the national debt issued by the Ministry of Finance from 1927 to 193 1 is 8.6%. Due to the high discount rate when bonds are sold, their real yield is relatively high. A study by Young shows that the average yield of bonds from 1928 to 1932 is about 15%-24%, and in 1933 it is 16.8% and 65438+. 1935 is 13.0%, 1936 is110.6%, 1937 is 8.7% in June.
The bonds issued by the government, known as full issue or 1998 issue, are actually issued at a price far below the face value, which makes the off-take banks profitable and can make use of this bond trading business to speculate in the market. During the 20 years from its establishment to the anti-Japanese war, Jincheng Bank's purchase of treasury bonds and treasury bills has been the main capital flow. It also publicly admitted: "In modern China, bonds and national debt issued by the central government were the most certain guarantees ... and the market was the most liquid. Therefore, over the years, the Bank's investment in such bonds has reached a considerable scale in the commercial and warehousing fields. As far as the Ministry of Commerce is concerned, in the last three years (1934- 1936), this investment is about 1/6 relative to the total mortgage and credit loans of banks. " In fact, the combined treasury bonds and treasury bonds of the Ministry of Savings have reached 27. 15%, 24.735% and 26.28% respectively in the past three years (except China Bank, Central Bank and Bank of Communications, Jincheng Bank is bigger than any other bank), and even reached 42.8 1% on the eve of the Anti-Japanese War. In the account of Jincheng Bank, the short-term bonds (1918-1919) and financial bonds (1920- 1922) in the seven years of the Republic of China are repaid with interest, discount and principal and interest. What is the punishment? What about shrimp H? 983 edition, pages 12 and 13. ) public debt has not only become a lively commodity in the securities market, but also a bargaining chip for lending, leading to the expansion of bank credit. The more bonds banks hold, the greater the relationship between debt service and banks, and the deeper the economic dependence between banks and the government.
Banks have become the largest holders of bonds, and their trading activities have a great influence on the securities market. Bankers manipulate market prices through their ability to hold bonds and profit from them. Therefore, bond prices often fluctuate greatly, and the sale of government bonds has become the biggest use of liquidity in the banking sector.
3. Debt income from the sale of bonds by the government. Most economists believe that the government's income from selling bonds is about 50%-60%. For example, economist Zhu Qi believes that during the period from 1927 to 193 1, the government's revenue was only 53.5% of the public debt issuance; Mr. Qian Jiaju thinks it is 50.9%; Younger, on the other hand, thinks that the total yield of bonds from 1927 to 1937 is 64% of the ordinary face value. Later, he thought that this figure was obviously overestimated, so he revised it, and the revised value was about 1/2-2/3. In a word, the government sells these bonds at a high price. As a result, the national finance can be unified, and the banking industry can expand rapidly and become the industry that benefits the most from high profits.
Three. Changes in the domestic market and fluctuations in bond prices
Generally speaking, if business is booming and commodity trading is active, it is easier to make profits from investment and operation. Commercial circulation and credit need to increase funds, and people tend to invest in business and sell bonds, so the bond market price will inevitably fall. If the enterprise is depressed, the market is depressed, investors are afraid to invest in the enterprise, the capital required for enterprise turnover and credit declines, and the capital flows to the bond market, then the bond market price will inevitably rise. The price change of the bond market from 1922 to 1936 also shows this rule.
As far as the financial market is concerned, because the owners of bonds are mainly the financial sector, under the conditions of loose money, abundant market funds and falling interest rates, funds will be invested in the bond market one after another, and the bond market price will inevitably rise. If the currency is tight and the market needs funds, the interest rate will rise, and bondholders will inevitably sell bonds for capital turnover, so the bond market will often fall. The issuing bank issues paper money, some of which are bonds. Therefore, when funds are tight, financial markets will sell bonds as cash reserves. When funds are tight, the commercial sector is unlikely to mortgage banks with bonds, so it also sells bonds, and the bond market price tends to fall. In addition, market interest rates and gold prices also have an impact on market prices. The market interest rate is higher than the bond interest rate, people tend to deposit interest, and the bond price will fall, and vice versa. The price of gold mainly affects the tariff revenue, and then affects the bond price. The high price of gold is conducive to imports. In modern China, the tariff revenue is mainly import tax, which will affect the income of the security fund. Therefore, since the implementation of tariff collection in 1930, this influence has gradually decreased.
Judging from market speculation, the price fluctuation of modern China stock market is closely related to speculation. Judging from the bond delivery ratio of 193 1- 1934, 1938+0 is 12.4%, 1932 and 1933 are/kloc. This shows that people buy bonds in the securities market not for interest income, but for the difference between buying and selling, so speculation accounts for a considerable part. Judging from the changes of modern bond prices, what attracts investors most is the yield of securities, and any investor is willing to choose investment opportunities with strong stability and low risk. When the investment risk increases, the return compensation required by investors increases, and the degree of risk that investors are willing to take increases with the increase of return. The higher the risk, the stronger the speculation. Speculation in modern China's securities market also showed this change to some extent. One of the objective reasons for the prevalence of speculation is that bonds lack liquidity chips. According to 1934, the balance of bonds directly under the Ministry of Finance is about 9.8110,000 yuan, which is 687 million yuan after a 30% discount. According to the statistics of the Economic Investigation Department of China Bank, the bonds purchased by 28 banks of Shanghai UnionPay in 1932 amounted to 239 million yuan, including foreign debts, but most of them were domestic debts, which may increase by 1934. It is estimated that the domestic debt held by 28 banks at this time may be around 260 million yuan. If the domestic debt purchased by banks and private banks other than members of the Shanghai Bank Trade Union is also estimated according to this figure, the bonds held by banks in this period are about 520 million yuan. Does this mean that the debts that are not in the hands of the banking industry are waves? 27 million yuan. Assuming that domestic shops, companies and school groups invest 50 million yuan in domestic debt to earn interest or as a guarantee, and the purchase quantity of foreign merchants is150,000 yuan, then the bond chips circulating in the securities market are only 60-70 million yuan. The lack of liquidity chips in bonds can be seen. (Note: Yu Yingjie: "Observation on Domestic Debt in Modern China", No.31Vol.4 of Oriental Magazine. )
In other countries' securities markets, price changes caused by speculation are also common. Take American stock trading as an example. In the 1920s, the American stock market experienced unprecedented prosperity. Housewives, spare-time college students and train attendants are all speculating in stocks, and the company's stock can rise by 65,438+00% every day. People borrow money from banks to buy as many stocks as possible. However, the good times did not last long. 1929 this month, the stock market suddenly collapsed. By the end of the year, the stock price had fallen by 1/3, and by 1932, it was only the highest price 1/6. At that time, the share price of famous American steel companies fell from the highest point of 1929, 26 1 USD, to 2 1 USD of 1932, and the shares of companies with bad reputation became worthless, thus announcing the beginning of the worldwide crisis of capitalism. In the early days of market economy, there were 17 19- 1720 "South China Sea Bubble Event" named after British Nanhai Company's financial fraud through stock trading, and "Mississippi Bubble Event" named after john law's speculation in Mississippi Company's stock. From this point of view, speculation in other countries' securities markets also exists in large numbers. Therefore, speculation itself has both positive and negative effects on the securities market. Speculation helps to find the price, realize the equilibrium of the market and realize the optimal allocation of resources, thus increasing the liquidity of the market. When investment and speculation are combined, good interaction will have a positive impact on the economy. (Note: Wu Jinglian: Building the Basic Framework of Market Economy, China Economic Publishing House, 1997. ) and pure speculation can't play such a role. Therefore, restrict speculation? What about Laura? Arc? nbsp
Table 2 Bond trading and delivery quantity of Shanghai Huashang Stock Exchange
1. turnover (unit: yuan)
193 1 year193219331934.
65438+ 10 month15125000745000123285000 433780000
February 128955000 closing157480000186135000.
March 187520000 closing 217455000 2959700
April 160750000① Closed196130000403473000
May 411250000 58035000 240070000 26708000
jun 368380000 98 175000 3 15385000
July 339395000 79310000 275810000
August 500535000 80045000 217470000
September 52315000188230000
65438+ 10 month133245000 80120000 297510000.
165438+1October 2050000171495000 437025000
65438+February15100000 207650000 516835000
Annual 3341400000 901710000 3182685000.
The annual average is 278300000 75100000 265400000 32400000.
2. Delivery amount (unit: yuan)
65438+1October 2024500011885000 66400001135000.
February 13240000 closed at 6075000 19 140000.
March 13430000 closed at 779000 10640000.
April 23505000 The market closed at 5485000 14205000.
May 31345000107050001025000 8225000
June 535450001435000010750000
July 432700001033500010510000
August 5214000088100015280000
September 56415000 8585000 8140000
10 April 46030000 9890000 9790000
165438+1October 241750001927500015730000.
65438+February 21015000 21365000 8705000
Annual 416255000115220000 25920000
3. The ratio of delivery to transaction
65438+ 10 month13.3%16.0% 5.4% 2.5%
February 17.2% closed, 3.9% 10.2%.
March 12.0% closed, 3.6%, 3.5%.
April closing 14.6%, 2.9%, 3.5%.
May 5.8% 18.5% 4.6% 3.7%
June 13.0%
July 2.7% 18. 1%
August15.4%11.0% 7.0%
September 1 1.3%
65438+ 10 month 19.7% 12.4% 3.3%
165438+ October11.7%1.4% 3.6%
65438+February18.2%10.5%1.7%
Annual rate12.4%12.8% 3.6% 5.7%
Source: Yu Yingjie: Observation on Modern Domestic Debt in China, No.31Vol.4 of Oriental Magazine.
Note ①: There are two figures in the original table, one of which is 540 120000. Because the difference between the two figures is too big, one of them is kept here.
Four, other non-economic factors and bond price fluctuations
1. Natural disasters. Natural disasters have displaced farmers, depressed industry and commerce, affected the financial industry, and then affected the stock market price. For example, 1924 floods in Hunan, Zhi Zhi and Henan, 1934 droughts in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, and 1935 droughts in various provinces all affect the price changes of the securities market.
2. Political situation. The influence of the political situation is mainly manifested in two aspects. First, the change of government officials, such as the resignation of chief tax officer Anglian in February 1923, caused the bond price fluctuation under the reorganization case. 1927, Anglian was dismissed, which led to a sharp drop in bond prices. The resignation of Song Ziwen, the finance minister of the Kuomintang, caused great changes in the stock market price. Because the change of government officials is directly related to the government's attitude towards bond custody funds and the attitude of maintaining securities credit. The second is the influence of war. Because of the war and the instability of people's hearts, people have to mention the current migration. The financial industry also needs to withdraw cash to ensure the needs of deposits, thus throwing out bonds, and market price changes become inevitable. For example, the direct Anhui War of 1920, the direct Feng War of 1922, the dispute between Jiangsu and Zhejiang of 1924, the Japanese invasion of Northeast China of 19 and the Japanese attack of 1932 all caused securities.
refer to
[1] Kong Min. Nankai economic index data compilation. China Social Sciences Press, 1998.
[2] Yang. China's financial theory. Liming Bookstore, 193 1.
[3] Yu Yingjie. An observation of China's modern domestic debts. Oriental magazine, No.31Vol. 14.
[4] Financial Research Office of Shanghai Branch of China People's Bank. Historical materials of Jincheng Bank. Shanghai People's Publishing House, 1983.
[5] Wu Jinglian. Building the infrastructure of market economy. China Economic Publishing House, 1997.