Compared with previous years, the 2020 budget report under the epidemic situation in COVID-19 has added many different contents: the issuance of special anti-epidemic national debt 1 trillion yuan, the amount of special debt reached 3.75 trillion yuan, and deficit ratio exceeded 3%. More than 3.6% is planned, amounting to 3.76 trillion yuan. ...
These are some key figures in the "Government Work Report" of the two sessions on May 22nd. At the same time, the "Government Work Report" also proposed that the proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising, and the fiscal deficit scale increased by 1 trillion yuan compared with last year. If special anti-epidemic bonds are added, there will be 2 trillion special funds this year. All these funds will be transferred to local governments, and a special transfer payment mechanism will be established, and the funds will directly reach the grassroots level in cities and counties. These funds will be mainly used to protect employment, basic people's livelihood and market players, including supporting tax reduction and fee reduction, rent reduction and interest rate reduction, and expanding consumption and investment.
These are only a part of China's fiscal expenditure in 2020. According to the data of "Implementation of Central and Local Budgets in 20 19 and Draft of Central and Local Budgets in 2020" (hereinafter referred to as the budget report), the national general public budget revenue is 18027 billion yuan, and the balance of transferred funds and use carry-over is 2,998 billion yuan, with a total revenue of 2,698 billion yuan. The national general public budget expenditure is 24,785 billion yuan (including 50 billion yuan of central reserve funds), with a deficit of 3,760 billion yuan, an increase of 6,543.8 billion yuan over 20 19.
In addition, the total revenue of national government funds is129126 billion. The national government fund budget expenditure is 126 123 billion yuan, the national state-owned capital operation budget expenditure is 261400 million yuan, and the national social insurance fund expenditure is 8,228.4 billion yuan. This means that in 2020, the budget expenditure of the "four accounts" of the entire fiscal revenue will reach more than 45 trillion yuan. What direction will such a huge fiscal expenditure enter? If the deficit of special national debt exceeds 8 trillion, what impact will it have on the economy?
The national account book in 2020 will not only reflect the budgetary revenue and expenditure, but also basically establish a modern financial system according to the progress of fiscal and taxation reform. What changes will be made in the fiscal and taxation reform?
Yang Zhiyong, a researcher at the Institute of Finance and Economics of China Academy of Social Sciences, told the Economic Observer that according to the government work report, this year's fiscal policy needs great efforts, while ensuring fiscal sustainability. This year, the budget deficit ratio exceeded 3% for the first time, and the new deficit and anti-epidemic special treasury bonds were allocated to local finance, which shows that the central government attaches great importance to the operation of local finance. In the "six guarantees", the grass-roots operation and people's livelihood are guaranteed by local governments, but the income, disposable financial resources and development of local governments are attracting more attention from the central level.
Gao Ruidong, chief macro analyst of Guotai Junan Securities, believes that deficit ratio plans to issue 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic bonds at the same time this year, and plans to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of special bonds, which is not only a realistic need under the special situation of epidemic situation, but also an important guarantee for maintaining the overall situation of economic development and social stability.
Income and expenditure
As in previous years, China's budget for 2020 is still divided into "four accounts". Before 1997, China government had only one general public budget account book. In that year, 13 government funds were included in the budget, and the government account books became two. In 2007, the state-owned capital operating budget was compiled separately, and the budget report has three account books.
The distribution mode of the four account books has been fixed since 20 14, forming the present situation. The so-called four accounts mainly include general public budget, government fund budget, state-owned capital operation budget and national social insurance fund budget. In short, the backbone of the "four accounts" involves tax and non-tax revenue, land assets, assets of central enterprises and the central social security fund respectively.
In 2020, the revenue from the four accounts is 42,063.799 billion yuan, of which the national general budget revenue is 2 1.25 billion yuan, the national government fund revenue is/kloc-0.29/kloc-0.26 billion yuan, the national state-owned capital operating budget revenue is 398.499 billion yuan, and the national social insurance fund revenue is 77.7.
Expenditure on the four budget items reached 45 trillion yuan, including the national general public budget expenditure of 2,478.5 billion yuan (including the central reserve fund of 50 billion yuan), the national government fund budget expenditure of 126 123 billion yuan, the national state-owned capital operation budget expenditure of 266,543.804 billion yuan and the national social insurance fund expenditure of 8,228.4 billion yuan.
On May 22nd, Liu Kun, Minister of Finance, said in the "Ministerial Channel" when answering media questions: Due to the epidemic, fiscal revenue will decline this year. We suggest that deficit ratio should raise it to above 3.6%, 0.8 percentage point higher than last year, and increase the financial funds 1 trillion yuan. The central government will also issue 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic treasury bonds, and transfer nearly one trillion yuan from the state-owned capital operating budget. In addition, the scale of special local government bonds was increased by10.6 trillion yuan.
With regard to the current situation of local finance, Liu Kun is expected to reduce revenue and increase expenditure by 800 billion to 900 billion, and some places are under great pressure to ensure basic livelihood, wages and operation. A few months ago, the central government has accelerated the disbursement of local financial transfer payment funds, at the same time increased the retention ratio of local financial funds, and eased the difficulties of local finance. On the whole, local finance is running normally and stably.
Shi, director of the Finance and Tax Law Research Center of China University of Political Science and Law, believes that among the four budget subjects, the general public budget and government fund budget are the most concerned. The government fund budget involves special debts, how to use them, how to repay the principal and interest, and whether there is debt risk. The general public budget pays attention to people's livelihood. "Social security budget, because of the epidemic, has the problem of reduction and exemption, which makes social security income may face some problems in 2020. At the same time, because social security expenditure is rigid, it is necessary to solve the problem of social security sustainability. As for the state-owned budget, it is not the focus of attention because of its small scale. " Stone said to.
Active financing
Faced with the impact of the epidemic and the downward pressure on the economy, the fiscal policy in 2020 will be more active and promising. On May 14, 2020, the website of the Ministry of Finance published Liu Kun's signed article "Active fiscal policy should be more active and promising", pointing out that active fiscal policy should be more active and promising, by appropriately raising the deficit ratio, issuing anti-epidemic special bonds, increasing the scale of local government special bonds, and consolidating and expanding the effect of tax reduction and fee reduction.
This year's "Government Work Report" later proposed that a proactive fiscal policy should be more active and promising. This year, deficit ratio plans to increase the fiscal deficit by 1 trillion yuan compared with last year, and at the same time issue 1 trillion yuan of special anti-epidemic bonds. This year, it is planned to arrange 3.75 trillion yuan of local government special bonds, an increase of10.6 trillion yuan over last year, and increase the proportion of special bonds that can be used as project capital. The central budget will allocate 600 billion yuan for investment.
While expanding fiscal expenditure, the government is also optimizing expenditure. The "Government Work Report" also proposes to vigorously optimize the structure of fiscal expenditure, so that the basic livelihood expenditure will only increase, the expenditure in key areas will be effectively guaranteed, and the general expenditure will be resolutely reduced. It is strictly forbidden to build new buildings and halls, and it is strictly forbidden to be extravagant and wasteful. Governments at all levels should really live a tight life, and the central government should take the lead. The central government's expenditure at this level has experienced a negative growth, and non-emergency non-rigid expenditure has decreased by more than 50%.
Liu Qiongzhi, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Wuhan University, said that under the severe economic situation, fiscal policy is the main policy choice to deal with the current epidemic. Its characteristics are direct and rapid, and it is undoubtedly the most effective government policy to deal with the epidemic, which shows the government's determination and determination to protect people's livelihood and restore the economy. This year's fiscal policy is based on three aspects: income policy (tax reduction, new tax reduction and fee reduction of about 500 billion yuan), expenditure policy (increasing expenditure, aiming at new infrastructure, and investing 600 billion yuan in the central budget), debt policy (issuing bonds), forming a system, and combining punches with unprecedented strength.
Liu Qiongzhi told reporters that the debt policy was unexpected, and deficit ratio reached 3.6%, which not only far exceeded the conventional arrangement of 3.0%, but also broke the psychological expectation of 3.5% in academic circles. In addition, the scale of special debt reached 3.75 trillion, breaking the psychological expectation of 3.5 trillion in academic circles; The special national debt has reached the scale of 1 trillion, and it is possible to increase the intensity next.
But in fact, the statement that "active finance is more active and promising" was stated in the previous high-level meeting.
The the Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee meeting held on March 27th pointed out that the adjustment and implementation of macro policies should be strengthened. We should study and put forward a package of macro-policy measures and respond positively. A proactive fiscal policy should be more active, and a prudent monetary policy should be more flexible and moderate. Appropriately raise the fiscal deficit ratio, issue special government bonds, increase the scale of special bonds of local governments, guide the interest rate of the loan market to fall, and maintain a reasonable and sufficient liquidity. It is necessary to implement various tax reduction and fee reduction policies, speed up the issuance and use of local government special bonds, and speed up the preliminary work and construction of key projects.
The same is true of special national debt. Special national debt refers to the national debt issued in a specific period and used for a specific purpose to form a specific asset. It does not need to be included in the general public budget, but in the budget management of government funds. The principle of government fund budget is "fixed expenditure based on income", so there must be favorable requirements. At the beginning of this year, many experts suggested issuing special government bonds, such as Lu Ting, chief economist of Nomura Securities in China, and Huang, former mayor of Chongqing. On April 17, China * * * held a meeting in the Political Bureau of the Central Committee, proposing that the proactive fiscal policy should be more active, improve the deficit ratio, issue special anti-epidemic bonds and increase special local government bonds.
Prior to this, China has issued two special bonds. First, in August 1998, the Ministry of Finance issued 270 billion yuan of long-term special treasury bonds to four wholly state-owned commercial banks, and all the funds raised were used to supplement the capital of wholly state-owned commercial banks; Second, in 2007, the 28th meeting of the 10th the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) decided to approve the issuance of 1.55 trillion yuan of special treasury bonds and purchase about 200 billion US dollars of foreign exchange as the capital of the national foreign exchange investment company to be established soon.
The 2020 budget report disclosed the relevant details of the special national debt. According to the budget report, the anti-epidemic special national debt is a special national debt issued by the central government in response to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic. Not included in the fiscal deficit, included in the national debt balance limit, all transferred to local governments for public health and other infrastructure construction and epidemic prevention-related expenditures. The issuance scale of special epidemic prevention treasury bonds is 65.438+0.000 billion yuan, and the term is mainly 654.38+0 years, which is jointly issued with the central government bonds. The interest on the special debt for epidemic prevention shall be fully borne by the central finance, with the central finance repaying the principal of 300 billion yuan and the local finance of 700 billion yuan. The revenue and expenditure of epidemic prevention special national debt shall be included in the budget management of government funds.
The proactive fiscal policy is not only manifested in issuing special bonds, but also in deficit ratio's historic breakthrough of 3% in 2020. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be above 3.6%, with a quota of 3.76 trillion yuan. Before the two sessions, many experts have judged that it will exceed 3%, and Shi is one of them. He told reporters that his forecast at that time was 3.5% of deficit ratio, because this year's epidemic and difficult challenges are enormous, not only in China, but also in the global economy. "In order to hedge the pressure, we must strengthen fiscal adjustment. The current fiscal revenue will be affected, expenditures will increase, and the deficit will definitely increase. " Stone said to.
In addition to expanding fiscal expenditure, tax reduction is also an important part of active finance. In 2020, the "Government Work Report" of the two sessions also proposed to increase tax reduction and fee reduction, strengthen the combination of phased policies and institutional arrangements, release water to raise fish, and help market players get rid of difficulties and develop.
This year, we will continue to implement the system of reducing the value-added tax rate and the enterprise pension insurance rate, and increase tax reduction and fee reduction by about 500 billion yuan. In the early stage, a tax reduction and fee reduction policy expired before June was introduced, including exempting small and medium-sized enterprises from pension, unemployment and industrial injury insurance units, exempting small-scale taxpayers from value-added tax, exempting public transportation, catering and accommodation, tourism and entertainment, culture and sports, and exempting civil aviation development funds and port construction fees. The implementation period has been extended to the end of this year. The income tax payment of small and micro enterprises and individual industrial and commercial households will be postponed until next year, and it is expected that the new burden reduction for enterprises will exceed 2.5 trillion yuan throughout the year.
Gao Ruidong told reporters that on the one hand, a proactive fiscal policy is an important driving force for stimulating aggregate demand at a critical moment. This year, the COVID-19 epidemic broke out suddenly, and China's economic and social development faced unprecedented challenges. Fiscal policy needs to play a mainstay role in a package of macro policies. Only by striving to expand the total demand can we stabilize the basic economy, grasp the bottom line of people's livelihood and lay a decisive foundation for building a well-off society in an all-round way. On the other hand, a proactive fiscal policy is an important guarantee for enterprises to reduce their burdens and make profits. In recent years, China has continuously increased tax reduction and fee reduction. In 20 19, the tax reduction and fee reduction will be 2.36 trillion yuan, which will increase the burden reduction for enterprises by more than 2.5 trillion yuan this year.
reform
Compared with the huge fiscal expenditure and a series of tax reduction and fee reduction policies, the fiscal and taxation reform in 2020 will receive more attention. According to the arrangement of fiscal and taxation reform since 20 14, a basic modern fiscal system will be established this year.
In 20 14, Lou Jiwei, then Minister of Finance, said in an interview with the media that decisive progress should be made in the reform of the budget management system, significant progress should be made in the legislation and promotion of tax reform, and the division of powers and expenditures should be basically realized. In 20 16, the key tasks and tasks of deepening the reform of fiscal and taxation system will be basically completed. In 2020, all reforms will be basically in place and a modern fiscal system will be basically established.
In the budget report, it is also proposed to speed up the reform of the fiscal and taxation system. The main content is to continue to deepen the reform of the fiscal and taxation system around the modernization of the national governance system and governance capacity. Shi told the Economic Observer that the fiscal and taxation reform has been advancing, but it has entered a key area and key field. The budget reform in fiscal and taxation reform is progressing smoothly, but the tax reform faces some difficulties. The most difficult thing is the reform of the financial system-that is, the institutional relationship between the central and local governments and the division of income.
Recently, Shi participated in the topic of legislation on intergovernmental financial relations in a government department. In his investigation, he found that if we don't mention the reform of financial rights, how can we ensure the division of powers and the inability to fulfill expenditure responsibilities? The expenditure responsibility proposed in the previous reform is compatible with the power and financial resources. This is a question of expenditure, but where does the income come from? "So China needs fiscal law. The core of fiscal law is intergovernmental fiscal relations, but there is still a long way to go. " Shi stressed.
Previously, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council, released on May 18, also proposed to optimize the division of government affairs and financial power, establish a central and local financial relationship with clear powers and responsibilities, coordinated financial resources and regional balance, and form a stable system in which government affairs, expenditure responsibilities and financial resources at all levels are compatible.
In addition, the budget report also proposes to deepen the reform of state-owned assets and state-owned enterprises, promote the improvement of the state-owned assets supervision system focusing on managing capital, solidly promote the centralized and unified management of state-owned financial capital, gradually implement the financial state-owned capital operation budget, and basically complete the transfer of some state-owned capital to enrich the social security fund.