At this time, we don't want to hit Brilliance when it falls, but we want to discuss how the market will carve up this "thin camel" and what kind of chain effect it will bring to the market after Brilliance falls.
First, we need to find out the branching structure of this camel.
Brilliance Automobile Group Holdings Limited holds four listed companies, namely Brilliance China, Shanghai Shenhua Holdings Limited, Jinbei Automobile Co., Ltd. and Chen Xin Zhongdian Holdings Limited, among which Brilliance China holds 50% of the equity of the joint venture BMW Brilliance (25% will be delivered to BMW China in 2022).
In terms of automobile brands, Brilliance Auto Group owns three independent brands, China, Jinbei and Songhua, and two joint venture brands, BMW Brilliance and Renault Brilliance.
The seemingly huge Brilliance Auto Group is actually losing money. The profit of Brilliance Group mainly comes from Brilliance China, and Brilliance China relies heavily on BMW Brilliance.
Therefore, even if Brilliance Group applies for bankruptcy and reorganization, it will still protect its equity in Brilliance China at all costs.
Since May 2020, Brilliance Group has successively transferred about 65,438+02% of the shares of Brilliance China to Liaoning Traffic Construction Investment under Liaoning SASAC at an ultra-low price (0.0 1 USD/share); In September 2020, Brilliance Group transferred the remaining 30.43% equity of Brilliance China to the newly established subsidiary Liaoning Xinrui.
In other words, Brilliance had already transferred its core assets before bankruptcy and reorganization, and even attempted to set up a trust fund to lock assets. Needless to say, the purpose behind it?
Therefore, Brilliance, which seems to be the most sought after, is now equivalent to a piece of waste paper due to the confusion of ownership, and is in a state of no one cares. On the contrary, other departments of Brilliance Group, such as Jinbei Automobile, Shenhua Holdings and China Automobile, are currently attracting the attention of investors including BMW Group.
BMW's ambition
BMW Brilliance China is definitely eyeing a 50% stake in the joint venture company (BMW Brilliance), but at present BMW has bought the China automobile brand held by Brilliance Group, which has nothing to do with the joint venture of BMW Brilliance, let alone a listed company under Brilliance Group. The acquired entities are brilliance auto and brilliance auto manufacturing co., ltd. ..
China said, "We hope to support the restructuring of Brilliance Group with practical actions and devote ourselves to further expanding our business in Liaoning Province. We hope to use the existing production capacity of Brilliance Automobile Manufacturing Co., Ltd. ".
To put it bluntly, BMW is not interested in the China brand itself, nor does it intend to help it revive. What BMW is interested in is the value of the assets behind it, such as ready-made factories and car-making qualifications.
It is understood that Brilliance Zhonghua Dadong Factory is located in Dadong District, Shenyang, with a factory area of 350,000 square meters and a designed annual production capacity of 6.5438+0.5 million vehicles. This factory is designed according to BMW standards, and it can be used after BMW takes over. But this is not the most important thing. Brilliance China Dadong Factory is just across the street from BMW Dadong Factory, and further north is BMW Xindadong Factory, which was just expanded on 20 17.
In other words, the purpose of BMW's acquisition of this factory is to open up the whole region and improve synergy.
It is worth noting that this acquisition with a total amount of 654.38+600 million yuan also includes China automobile production qualification worth 400 million yuan. Industry speculation, BMW may use this "indicator" to set up another wholly-owned company, specializing in the production of new energy vehicles.
When it comes to wholly-owned companies, it is necessary to know more about the changing trend of stock ratio in the automobile industry.
On 20 18, Tesla set up a wholly-owned factory in Shanghai, after the restrictions on the ratio of foreign shares of special purpose vehicles and new energy vehicles were cancelled; After the restriction on the ratio of foreign shares in commercial vehicles was lifted in 2020, Sichuan Hyundai quietly turned into a wholly-owned modern automobile enterprise. In 2022, the limit of no more than two foreign shares in passenger cars and joint ventures will be abolished, and foreign investment access in the automotive sector will be fully opened. BMW is probably the first foreign car company to eat crabs.
In fact, as early as 20 18, BMW announced that it would acquire 25% of the shares of BMW Brilliance Joint Venture for 3.6 billion euros after opening the share ratio in 2022, and the share ratio increased from 50% to 75%. Now that Brilliance Group is in turmoil, BMW is likely to take all the remaining shares and set up two wholly-owned companies one after another.
Once BMW is wholly owned, it will have a great impact on China's long-standing joint venture. Domestic car companies that have long relied on joint ventures will have to increase their investment in their own brands. By then, there will be more variables in the map of China's automobile industry. After all, there are not a few car companies that rely on blood transfusion like Brilliance.
On August 3 1 day, the financial report for the first half of the year released by BAIC showed that the revenue of BAIC in the first half of the year was 90.375 billion yuan, of which the revenue of Beijing Benz reached 88.059 billion yuan, accounting for 97.4% of the total revenue of BAIC.
At the same time, the loss of BAIC's own brand is still expanding. In the first half of this year, Beijing brand revenue was 2.31.60 billion yuan, down 2 1.0% year-on-year. In terms of sales volume, in the first half of this year, the sales volume of Beijing brands was only 28,000 units, down about 20% year-on-year. In addition, the gross profit loss of Beijing brand in the first half of the year was 2.496 billion yuan, which was larger than the loss of 65.438+83.4 billion yuan in the first half of last year.
Undeniably, in the development of automobile industry, the stock ratio restriction has promoted the development of China's automobile industry, but at the same time it has also become the "umbrella" of some automobile enterprises, which has greatly hindered and delayed the development of China's automobile industry. At this point, the full opening of the stock ratio will force the transformation and upgrading of the entire industry.
The development of China automobile market in recent 20 years also proves that the real core technology can always be obtained through independent research and development. At present, the first-line enterprises in the industry master their own core technologies, such as BYD, Geely, Great Wall and Changan. And some enterprises with their backs on mountains are like salted fish once they leave the joint venture brand.
Zhang Jinhua, secretary-general of China Automotive Engineering Society, believes that "when the share ratio of joint ventures is liberalized, the protection period of local car companies will end and the pressure will increase dramatically. But after the development in recent years, especially the collective development of China brands such as Changan and Geely. This situation has actually greatly weakened the advantages of technology brands before the joint venture. "
The collapse of Brilliance can be said to be the inevitable result in the history of automobile development in China. I hope other friends can learn from it and take their destiny back into their own hands. However, under the tide of new energy and opening up, the time left for them is really running out.
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