Hang Seng Index Futures is based on Hang Seng Index, and the risk of index fluctuation is predictable. The difference is that with the connotation of futures (with margin), finance is used.
Leverage, the risk will multiply. The market characteristics of futures and index futures are similar, but the specific trading objects are different and the risks are relatively large. As for shares
Tickets also have risks in the investment field, but they are smaller than futures. If you have time, please take a closer look at the index adopted by Hong Kong and international hedge funds in 1998.
Maybe you will have a certain understanding of the risks in the counting process of futures games.
In the southeast Asian financial turmoil of 1998, Hong Kong's stock and foreign exchange markets were strongly impacted by American hedge funds headed by Soros.
Digital futures trading plays an important role in it. On August 28th,19986,600,000 people in Hong Kong fixed their eyes on the Hong Kong Alliance in the central part of Hong Kong Island.
On the Stock Exchange and the Hong Kong Futures Exchange. Because August 28th is the settlement date of the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index futures contract in August, and it is also the day when the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region government cracked down on Israel.
The international hot money group with hedge funds as the main body controls the tenth trading day of Hong Kong's financial market. After nine trading days of fierce fighting, the two sides ushered in the first game.
The last battle.
The morning 10 opened only for 5 minutes, and the stock market turnover exceeded HK$ 3.9 billion. In the same month, the whole day 14 was only used by the Hong Kong Government.
The absorption of blue-chip stocks by HK$ 3 billion will push the Hang Seng Index up from 6660 points in 13 to 7224 points. After half an hour, the turnover exceeded 654.38 billion Hong Kong dollars.
By the close of the morning, the turnover had reached HK$ 40 billion, close to the daily turnover calendar of HK$ 46 billion set at the peak of 1997 on August 29th.
The highest record in history. After the market opened in the afternoon, the selling pressure increased and the trading volume climbed all the way, but the Hang Seng Index and the futures index were always above 7800 points. 4 p.m.
The bell rang on the hour, and the constantly beating Hang Seng Index, futures index and turnover on the display screen were locked at 7829, 785 1 and 79 billion respectively.
1August 28th, 998 is a heartbreaking day for many international speculators. Under the unfavorable conditions of the general decline of the surrounding stock markets, the Hong Kong stock market
, still able to withstand the selling pressure of international speculators, which greatly surprised the speculators, but also made the speculators suffer a crushing defeat in this war, which is the first time since the Hong Kong Government 1998 8.
The climax since June 14 intervened in the market is also the subjective speculation strategy of the Hong Kong Government against the foreign exchange market, stock market and futures market used by speculators.
The way to deal with a man's body. " During these ten trading days, the Hong Kong government pushed the closing price of Hang Seng Index to 6660 on August 13.
As high as 7829 points on the 28th, it forced speculators to settle and deliver the August stock index futures at a high price, which raised the September stock index. Until then,
Speculators have seen a large number of short positions in August futures, so even if the positions are adjusted, the cost is high. Once the positions are closed, huge losses are inevitable.
Since it entered the market, the Hong Kong Government has spent more than US$ 654.38+0 billion, consuming 654.38+03% of the Exchange Fund. In this respect, the Hong Kong government has also won.
Victory at a price. This greatly exceeded the scale of 1993 when the British government spent $7.7 billion to crack down on international speculators in the "pound defense war".
A "war without smoke".
First, the struggle between hedge funds and the Hong Kong government.
(1) preliminary work
1. It is impossible for hedge funds to raise funds while impacting Hong Kong's financial market. Because one
Once hit, the traditional practice of financial supervision department is to raise the interest rate of short-term loans, but it turns out that the first three shocks (1997).
1October,19981October,1June 998), the measures taken by the Hong Kong Monetary Authority are to raise the interest rate of short-term loans, and the chairman of the HKMA, Joseph Yam, also
Nicknamed "any trick" The increase of interest rate will increase the cost of the shock, but before that, the attacker still borrows money after the relevant interest rate increases.
The biggest difference between the speculators' impact on Hong Kong's financial market and the past is that the speculators did not carry out spot lending activities, but settled in advance.
A large number of Hong Kong dollars, these Hong Kong dollars come from many sources, but one of the most important sources is 1998, which was issued in Hong Kong by some international financial institutions in the first half of the year.
From 2000 to 2000, the total amount of Hong Kong dollar bonds was about US$ 30 billion, and the annual interest rate was 1 1%. These international financial institutions convert these Hong Kong dollars into US dollars and then borrow them.
The main investors in the Hong Kong dollar are some hedge funds. These Hong Kong dollars provide hedge funds with a low-cost source to attack Hong Kong's financial market, which speculators can obtain.
The conditions for arbitrage in the foreign exchange market, while hedge funds buy forward dollars in large quantities in the foreign exchange market. It is said that Soros's fund holds a total of about
A $40 billion purchase contract with a maturity date of 1999 in February.
2. In June and July of1998, when the Hang Seng Index was at 8000 points, a large number of short positions of Hang Seng Index were established, and hedge funds established Hang Seng Index.
Short positions are due to their expectation that the Hang Seng Index will inevitably fall sharply after the impact on the Hong Kong stock market. The futures contract price of Hang Seng Index is HK$ 50 per share.
In other words, if a short position is established, a futures contract can earn HK$ 50 for every drop in the Hang Seng Index. As we all know, the Hang Seng Index generation
It is a "barometer" of Hong Kong's economy, showing the economic and political prospects of the financial market and even Hong Kong as a whole. The more the Hang Seng Index falls, the more people are interested in Hong Kong.
The less confidence in the economy, in this case, the sharp drop in the Hang Seng Index is likely to cause investors to blindly follow suit, which may cause both sides to lose.
The possibility of the Hang Seng Index falling. Because of this, hedge fund operators take a fancy to this and hold a large number of short positions.
(2) The actions of speculators led to the intervention of the Hong Kong Government.
1.1At the beginning of August, 1998, speculators suddenly trumpeted that the RMB would depreciate 10%. Among them, in the black market transactions of RMB in Shanghai and Guangzhou, the RMB fell.
At 1, it's about 9.5 RMB. Speculators spread rumors that the RMB will depreciate in order to influence people's views.
Confidence in the Hong Kong dollar. In addition, speculators have also publicized rumors such as instability of mainland banks, with the aim of creating psychological conditions for them to attack the Hong Kong dollar.
Its means are really omnipotent. An overseas fund even offered the option of decoupling Hong Kong from the linked exchange rate on August 1998.
2. The speculators began to attack, and the Hang Seng Index plummeted. 1August 5, 998, speculators sold more than HK$ 20 billion a day, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority
Contrary to the passive approach in the past, Hong Kong's fiscal reserves were fully absorbed, and the foreign exchange market was stabilized at the level of US$ 65,438+0 to HK$ 7.75, and the interbank market was fragmented.
The interest on the loan increased only slightly. On August 6th 1998, speculators sold more than HK$ 20 billion, and the HKMA made a new move, not only accepting all orders, but also
And deposit all the absorbed Hong Kong dollars into the Hong Kong banking system, thus stabilizing the interbank lending rate, because once the interest rate is raised, the shares will
It is inevitable that the market will fall. The results of the past three attacks have all saved the foreign exchange market, while the stock market has plummeted. However, on August 7, as the blue chip has announced its interim results,
The poor performance of the stock market caused the stock market to fall. The Hang Seng Index fell 2 12 points, or 3%. In the following trading days from 7th to13rd, the Hong Kong government
Continue to stabilize the stock market by absorbing Hong Kong dollars and stabilizing interbank interest rates. However, due to speculators shorting the stock market, the Hang Seng Index finally fell.
6600 points lower.
3.1998 August 14, the Hong Kong government officially participated in the stock market and futures market transactions. In order to maintain the Hong Kong dollar, the Hong Kong government has invested huge amounts of foreign exchange funds in the stock market.
Markets and futures markets are also in direct confrontation with speculators. A few minutes before the start, they instructed some Hong Kong securities companies, such as Bank of China, Doddoli and Hesheng, to give warm applause.
Hang Seng Index Blue Chip. It means raising the August index by 600 points at all costs. This move by the Hong Kong government deviates from the previous policy of "positive non-intervention" against speculation.
Speculators' policies have dealt an unexpected heavy blow. As the central bank, the monetary authorities directly support market intervention in futures,
The stock market is the first time in the global open capital market. At that time, the Hang Seng Index and August stock index futures contracts closed at 7224 points, and the stock market was traded.
It reached HK$ 865.438+0 billion, while the usual turnover level was about HK$ 3 billion to HK$ 5 billion.
Near the settlement date on August 28th, hedge funds borrowed a lot of shares from Hong Kong businessmen. It is said that Soros borrowed money from oil tycoons in the Middle East.
Feng shares were used in the decisive battle with the Hong Kong government on August 28th. Since the lending rate in Hong Kong is 25%, which is much higher than the overseas lending rate of 8%, speculators
Overseas borrowing was successful. On the one hand, the Hong Kong government has ordered Hong Kong listed companies and funds not to lend their shares to hedge funds, while on the other hand, they are investing in stocks.
The market accepted the selling frenzy of hedge funds, so that the Hong Kong government had absolute control over many listed companies after the war. Until August 28th.
In the contest of 10 trading days, the Hong Kong Government finally resisted the selling pressure of international speculators and successfully pushed the Hang Seng Index to rise by more than 1 100 points.
Broke the wishful thinking of speculators. To sum up, the main measures taken by the Hong Kong Government in August are:
First, absorb all the Hong Kong dollars sold by speculators, and deposit the absorbed Hong Kong dollars into the Hong Kong banking system to stabilize the interbank interest rate in Hong Kong.
On June 14, the bank overnight rate suddenly raised its interest rate, which surprised speculators and raised their borrowing costs.
Second, since August 14, a large number of stocks (blue chips) of Hang Seng Index have been bought, which has raised the prices of Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Index futures contracts in August.
Increase the losses of speculators who have established many short positions on the settlement date of the Hang Seng Index futures contract on August 28th.
Third, instruct companies, funds, banks and other institutions in Hong Kong not to lend stock spot to hedge funds to slow down stock market volatility.
Fourth, increase the September stock index futures contract and increase the cost for speculators to change positions.
Date, government strategy, market reaction
8. 14 through several brokers to buy a large number of constituent stocks of Hang Seng Index and futures index at lower prices, calling on Chinese businessmen to enter the market, causing speculators to short the futures index.
The Hang Seng Index soared 564 points.
8. 18 did not conduct a large-scale cargo sweep, focusing on attracting telecom stocks to maintain the Hang Seng Index at 7200 points. Speculators began to move August futures contracts to September.
8. 19 took advantage of the good news from the outside world and began to sell goods for profit, intervening in the stock futures index and cutting off the channels for speculators to sell goods. The Hang Seng Index rose 4 12 points, and it issued over 10,000 yuan in August.
When the contract was transferred to September, speculators borrowed money from overseas and continued to sell short in large quantities on the 24th.
8.2 Retreat 200 points earlier, and then the defense line that supported the market not to fall but to rise was pushed up to 7700 points again. It is widely rumored in the market that funds begin to refer to short positions in the flat period.
8.2 1 did not actively purchase goods, preventing speculators from hitchhiking and the Hang Seng Index fell for the first time after the intervention, so speculators had an opportunity to take advantage of it and the market closed sharply lower.
On August 24th, the market bought 8 and got 9 for free, forcing speculators to close their positions in August. Hong Kong stocks rose by 3 17 points when the periphery fell, and there were still more than 1 10,000 contracts in September.
Actively entering the market, a new "royal broker" appeared.
8.25 Lowering the short-term interest rate of Hong Kong dollars will increase the cost for speculators to borrow Hong Kong dollars. The futures market holds 7800 points, and the spread between August and September is about 100 points. The futures index approached 8000 points in August.
There has been a decrease in job transfers.
8.27 Confronted with speculators, a large number of constituent stocks were swept in, and the stock index remained at 7800 throughout the day, and the stock market turnover surged. On the 27th and 28th of 229,
79 billion
8.28 Further cross the spread of futures index in August and September, and increase the cost for speculators to change positions. The spread between August and September futures index widened to 600 points on August 28th. ...