The news of the photovoltaic sector, in addition to the industry, listed companies also collectively crossed the border, intending to enter the photovoltaic industry. Tongwei, a leading silicon material company, accelerated the layout of the entire industrial chain, which successfully triggered the stock price differentiation on Friday. So today, Bian Xiao has compiled relevant knowledge in photovoltaic field here. Let's have a look!
Tongwei responds to accelerate the integrated layout
The whole photovoltaic power generation system consists of solar cell module, controller, energy storage battery (group), DC or AC inverter and other parts. The core component of photovoltaic power generation system is solar cell module, which directly converts the light energy of the sun into electric energy.
The photovoltaic industry takes silicon as the main line, and the upper, middle and lower reaches include 23 links such as silicon materials, silicon wafers, batteries, components and power stations. The whole photovoltaic industry chain starts from the most primitive silicon material, extracting metal silicon from silicon ore, and starting from Hesheng Silicon Industry in the upstream, and then turning silicon into pure silicon material that can be directly used for production. The representative enterprises of silicon materials include Tongwei and Daquan Energy. Longji Green Energy and TCL Zhonghuan are companies that make silicon into silicon wafers. Previously, Longji and Tongwei's upstream and downstream industrial chains were closely linked and cooperated closely.
After the close of 19, Tongwei shares responded that they would enter the component field. Since the acquisition of Hefei Saiwei on 20 13, Tongwei Co., Ltd. has some component production capacity, and on this basis, it has maintained R&D promotion and a small amount of expansion, and also accumulated a certain technical and market foundation. Based on the current national double carbon target requirements and the strengthening of industry integration development trend, the company will also follow the trend and consider further demonstration planning in the component business.
In other words, Tongwei, which mainly produces silicon materials and batteries, intends to enter the field of components this time. Previously, Longji Green Energy and Trina Energy also had the same integrated layout.
There are precedents for integrated layout in the industry.
Longji co., ltd was established in 2000. After more than 20 years of development, Longji has become the largest listed company in the global photovoltaic industry, with five business segments: monocrystalline silicon wafers, battery components, industrial and commercial distributed solutions, green energy solutions and hydrogen energy equipment. Longji is now a leader in the field of silicon materials and components.
On February 1 1, Longji announced that the company's 7 billion convertible bonds were approved, which will be used for the annual output 15GW high-efficiency single crystal battery project of Xi Yue Xian Lingfeng and the annual output of 3GW single crystal battery project of Ningxia Le Ye. On March 7th, Longji announced to expand the investment scale of its Qujing (Phase II) single crystal silicon wafer project, and then on March 13, Longji announced to expand production again, and planned to spend 195 billion yuan to increase the photovoltaic industry consolidation, including 7.6 billion yuan in battery investment.
From a series of expansion projects, it can be seen that battery business is regarded as a new strategic breakthrough in addition to consolidating the two dominant businesses of silicon chips and components.
The new team of Tianfeng Electric Power pointed out that after Longji entered the component link, the industry pattern has been accelerated. The entry of Tongwei has greatly raised the barriers of parts enterprises. The demand for fully integrated production capacity and brand channels is huge, and it is almost impossible for new entrants to complete the impact on traditional component enterprises (traditional component enterprises can rely on overseas and distributed markets to make profits, but all new entrants have to face the price competition of Tongwei in China. It is difficult to achieve channel expansion), so the final pattern of parts and components will be more definitely concentrated in the hands of enterprises with brand channels, scale advantages, advanced technology and supply chain management capabilities.
Coincidentally, on June 23, Trina Solar's subsidiaries in Qinghai also surfaced, and Trina Solar also invested heavily in integration. Through subsidiaries such as Trina Solar (Changzhou) Technology Co., Ltd. and Xining Heyuan New Energy Technology Co., Ltd., Trina Solar has invested in many new companies in Qinghai.
Xining Heyuan was established in 202 1, 1, with a registered capital of1.300 million. Its business scope includes technical services, development, non-ferrous metal smelting and non-ferrous metal alloy manufacturing. Trina Solar Changzhou Company directly holds shares. According to the detailed planning of the first and second phases, Tianhe plans to build an auxiliary material line with an annual output of 300,000 tons of industrial silicon,10.5 million tons of polysilicon, 35GW of monocrystalline silicon, 10 GW components and10.5 GW components. The project has been reviewed and approved by the board of directors and is scheduled to be completed by the end of 2025.
It can be seen from the above actions that Trina Solar will not only expand the production of polysilicon, but also accelerate the integration and layout process of the industrial chain.
Photovoltaic competition pattern intensifies, and the decline creates buying opportunities.
Leading companies in the industry have accelerated the integration process, and companies outside the industry have long been impatient. Twenty listed companies from different industries entered the photovoltaic track across the border, including Mubang Hi-Tech, which makes educational toys, Huangshi Group, a well-known dairy company, Zhengbang Technology, which raises pigs, or Blu-ray Development from the real estate industry.
Regarding this industry phenomenon, the manager of a person in charge of South China in Public Offering of Fund pointed out that the photovoltaic industry is currently in the iterative stage of continuous technology update. As the most advanced new energy field, it also presents endless opportunities. If the valuation is high, we can wait for the valuation to decrease, but as long as the newly installed capacity is steadily accelerated, the industry fundamentals will be fine.
Outside the industry, the competition in the industry has intensified sharply. The photovoltaic industry has recently been like a pig standing on the "window", and the adjustment of the photovoltaic track arrived as scheduled this Friday. So why does Tongwei integration affect the decline of photovoltaics?
According to the tender offer, Tongwei's offer is 1.942 yuan, which is far lower than that of Yijing Optoelectronics 1.995 and Longji Green Energy 2.02, which are also involved in centralized mining. Market analysts pointed out that this may mean that Tongwei has made a big push into components and started a price war first. Tongwei itself is the specific price advantage of silicon faucet, while other integrated component factories have no obvious price advantage, which will also lower the profits of component manufacturers. However, the core reason is that the photovoltaic sector has soared in recent days, the valuation is too high, and there is an adjustment demand in the short term.
However, some well-known private investors pointed out that the price is only a short-term disturbance of photovoltaic. In the long run, the corresponding share price increase is not judged by the price, but Tongwei has created an opportunity for the market to buy other high-quality photovoltaic integrated companies.
Do not change sustainable growth, brokers see more photovoltaics.
Although Tongwei shares entered photovoltaic integration, the market voted for other integrated component companies with their feet, but institutions do have different views.
For the collapse of photovoltaic, the new team of Haitong Securities believes that the market is overly worried about the component pattern and the stock price overreacts. Short-term adjustment provides a good opportunity to get on the bus and continue to watch more photovoltaics.
The component mode will remain stable for now. The layout of overseas component channels takes time, and it takes time for the influence of component brands to be accepted by overseas customers. Therefore, Tongwei has made a breakthrough in the domestic market at present, and has not impacted the overall pattern of components in the short term; In the medium and long term, due to the characteristics of scattered downstream customers, the market concentration of components is much lower than that of upstream manufacturing links, and the market share of the first in the industry is around 20%, so it is difficult to increase the market share. Therefore, the entry of new powerful enterprises is mostly to clean up the market share of second-and third-line components, and will not have a huge impact on the four major component enterprises.
At present, the core point of the industry is demand growth, and competition is a secondary contradiction. The investment logic of photovoltaic industry is always demand >: supply. Every year, new enterprises, new technologies and new production capacity enter every link. What is important is the sustained growth of the industry. The current expansion will be digested by the long-term growth space. From the perspective of growth rate, 2022-2024 is a rare period of high growth for three consecutive years in history. Not only components, but also the competition intensity of each link will be better than the market fears.
The new team of TF Securities Electric believes that Tongwei components won the bid at a low price, which will be bad for third-tier enterprises in the short term and stabilize the component link pattern in the long term. In the next few years, the growth rate of photovoltaic industry is conservatively estimated to be above 30%, and the head assembly enterprises are already in a relatively underestimated state; At the same time, the long-term accumulation of brand channel advantages of component leaders can still ensure their profitability.
Globally, domestic ground power stations are the most price-sensitive markets, so they are also the most effective price means. However, distribution needs to lay channels, and overseas ground power stations need financing rating, which can not be completed in a short time, so the profitability of these market segments has not been affected.
In the long run, the market expects that the four leading companies will occupy more than 80% share, and other companies will occupy less than 20% share. The entry of Tongwei will further squeeze second-and third-tier enterprises, especially small enterprises mainly engaged in domestic ground power stations.