First, the recovery of SARS: the profitability and asset quality of the banking industry during SARS.
1, SARS period
The SARS period mainly refers to the first SARS case (116 in 2002 10) and the number of SARS patients and suspected cases in the world is no longer increasing (13 in July 2003). By restoring the profits, asset quality and stock price performance of the banking industry during the SARS period, the impact of the current novel coronavirus epidemic on the banking industry will be promoted. In addition, during SARS,
2. Profitability: The growth rate and ROE of most banks are almost unaffected.
Judging from the growth rate of profit and net profit returned to the mother, the growth rate of the four joint-stock banks during the SARS period (2002). 116-2003.07.13) is different from last year, but the share transfer of Ping An Bank is attributed to the decline in profit and net profit, except for three banks.
From the perspective of ROE, similarly, the four joint-stock companies did not show an obvious downward trend in ROE during the SARS epidemic. Except for the decline in ROE of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank, the ROE of the other three banks has increased, which is less affected by the epidemic.
3. Asset quality: the non-performing loan ratio continued to decline.
During the SARS period, the NPL ratio of the four banks will not increase, and the NPL ratio will not be delayed. After SARS, the non-performing loan ratio will continue to decline and the asset quality of the banking industry will continue to improve.
Second, the resumption of SARS: the performance of the bank's share price-the emphasis on defensive value
We divide the duration of SARS epidemic into four stages: outbreak period (2002.11.16-2003.1.3) and fermentation period (2003.438+0.4-2003.4+05).
Judging from the trend of stock price, the trend of bank stocks is basically similar to that of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300. In the fermentation period and the outbreak period when the SARS trend was the most tense, the stock price rose instead, especially at the end of the fermentation period, which reflected the defensive value of bank stocks in the market oscillation period and its hedging function appeared in the outbreak period.
Third, the current epidemic situation analysis
1, the impact of the epidemic on the banking industry
It mainly affects ATM business, asset quality and non-interest income.
First, the epidemic has reduced the business volume of websites. According to the previous business arrangement, the bank's website runs normally, but it is expected that the website traffic will be significantly reduced, and the daily deposit withdrawal business will also be reduced. However, the bank will gradually propose more online remote business types to meet the needs of customers. This replacement will reduce the negative impact.
Second, the demand for cash withdrawal from ATMs is expected to increase. After the outbreak of the epidemic, some customers carefully consider the increase in cash holdings and the increase in ATM demand, so banks need to pay attention to the daily management of ATMs immediately.
Third, the cash inflow of small and medium-sized enterprises has decreased, which affects the quality of bank assets. The decrease in daily consumption of residents will inevitably reduce the demand for housing. During the Spring Festival, the normal flow of small and medium-sized enterprises was significantly lower than expected, and their solvency decreased in the short term, especially in catering, transportation, department stores, retail and other industries. Most small and medium-sized banks have been hit harder.
Fourth, the repayment ability of credit cards and housing loans has declined. After the daily flow of wholesale and retail trade decreases, the income of employees in such enterprises will inevitably decrease, and the repayment ability of credit cards and mortgages behind them will also decline. Recently, however, the China Banking Regulatory Commission has formulated a policy to appropriately relax the confirmation and extend the repayment time to avoid short-term adverse increases.
Fifth, the income from intermediary business has been greatly reduced. With the spread of the epidemic, the passenger flow of cinemas, restaurants, hotels, department stores, tourist attractions and various means of transportation decreased, and the related payment and settlement business decreased geometrically, and the income obtained by banks from daily payment and settlement decreased sharply. Usually, the background of the Spring Festival economy reaching huge retail sales and tourism income is the bank's payment and settlement income, which is now zero.
Sixth, the banking industry donated money for the epidemic, and as non-operating expenses, the bank's profits are also decreasing. The banking industry dares to take responsibility and assume social responsibility. Judging from the current data, most of the big banks are donated by 30 million people for the first time, most of which are 20-50 million joint-stock banks and 6,543,800+million city commercial banks. However, the banking industry itself is also part of the victims of the epidemic and needs to be
2. Spring Festival policy
First, payment and settlement. On October 28th, 2020/kloc-0, the central bank, the State Administration of Foreign Exchange and the China Securities Regulatory Commission decided to extend the business quota of micropayment system to February 2nd, 2020, and at the same time, to extend the closing time of inter-bank leasing market, inter-bank bond market, inter-bank foreign exchange market, gold market, bill market and exchange market to February 2nd, 2020.
Second, the central bank: Of course, considering the large scale of funds due after listing on February 3, 2020, the central bank immediately put in enough liquidity by using monetary policy tools such as open market operations.
III. State Taxation Administration of The People's Republic of China: According to the needs of the epidemic situation, the national tax declaration period in February will be extended to February 24, and Hubei and other areas with serious epidemic situation may be extended as appropriate. Taxpayers who still have difficulties in reporting due to the epidemic situation may apply for further extension according to law.
Fourth, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued the Notice on Strengthening Financial Services of Banking and Insurance Industry to Cooperate with novel coronavirus's Prevention and Control Management, requiring enterprises with great influence to appropriately increase the scale of credit loans and medium and long-term loans, and not to stop lending blindly, stop lending, stop lending or stop lending.
V. Bank's response: The professional service of Beijing's credit products sold by Bank of Beijing was temporarily suspended due to the epidemic. Small and medium-sized enterprises, especially those in wholesale and retail, accommodation and catering, logistics and transportation, cultural tourism and other industries, have provided seamless connection of credit funds for related enterprises through loan renewal and extension, and no loan withdrawal, loan renewal and loan re-lending have occurred. At the same time, the bank reduced the loan interest rate of difficult enterprises and reduced the cost. Ensure production. Bank of Beijing has set up a special green channel for Beijing Chengdai to ensure the quick review and the end of the review. During the epidemic, the loan of CITIC Bank Wuhan Branch decreased by 50 bp.