Looking back on the first quarter of 200212002, the domestic capital market showed a pattern of "bond market picking up and stock market weakening", and bond funds with small fluctuations and scattered risks picked up against the trend. Bian Xiao has sorted it out here. Can he still invest in the bond market under inflation anxiety? For your reference, I hope everyone will gain something in the reading process!

Can you still invest in the bond market under inflation anxiety?

Recently, I have been hearing about the rising debt income in the United States. What is the impact of rising US debt income? What is the impact on the national debt market?

The stimulus policy of $65,438 +0.9 trillion is one of the reasons that affect the rise of US bond yields. The American economy is in the process of recovery, and the yield of American bonds is on the rise. The high yield of US debt reflects the impact of fiscal stimulus to some extent. The rise in US bond yields has brought valuation pressure to US stocks at a high level, and also brought capital outflow pressure to emerging markets that rely on the US dollar.

If it affects the national debt market, it will first affect inflation expectations and lead to a decline in the price of national debt. If the later inflation becomes a reality, it will still be bad for the national debt market.

Generally speaking, the main influencing factors of domestic bond varieties are: economic growth, inflation, monetary policy and liquidity. Under the same conditions, new bonds are often issued at a premium over old bonds, that is, the coverage rate is low.

The adjustment of the bond market began in May last year and now remains at a low level. Next, there may be some trading opportunities in the bond market, and the possibility of readjustment is not ruled out. Because the economy is still on the track of recovery, the macro fundamentals are not conducive to the bond market, and the turnaround needs to wait.

Among them, inflation refers to the phenomenon that the overall price level continues to rise for a period of time. Inflation is reflected in price increases, but individual price increases do not mean that inflation has occurred. Inflation reflects the sustained and general rise of a basket of commodities in a certain period of time. The occurrence of inflation often means currency depreciation, that is, the decline of currency purchasing power. Usually, in response to inflation, monetary policy will shrink, and the environment of shrinking liquidity and rising interest rates is unfriendly to financial markets.

Inflation is not only a financial market, but also a global macro theme. Last year, in response to the impact of the epidemic, central banks adopted loose monetary policies to varying degrees. Since the beginning of this year, the epidemic has eased, vaccination has been promoted and the global economy is expected to recover. However, after the epidemic, the prices of some commodities and means of production are easy to rise and difficult to fall. Recently, the prices of crude oil and bulk commodities have risen, so it is inevitable for financial markets to be vigilant against inflation expectations.

At present, the real inflation level is not high and the short-term inflationary pressure is limited. However, with the gradual control of the epidemic and the gradual recovery of the global economy, the medium-term inflation risk can not be ignored and needs close attention.

So what is the standard to measure inflation? There are many indicators to measure the price level and inflation level. The most commonly used are CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index) and GDP deflator. The United States mainly focuses on PCE index.

What are the advantages and disadvantages of inflation for individuals? Moderate inflation can promote the enthusiasm of enterprises, increase residents' income, stimulate consumption and reduce the debt burden, but it will also be accompanied by the disadvantages of rising living costs. If the inflation level is high, the increase of personal income can't keep up with inflation, which will bring about the decline of actual purchasing power.

Most fund managers believe that the bond market still has certain risks in the short term. First, inflation expectations are relatively high. Second, in the post-epidemic era, economic recovery is accelerating, and "economic recovery+inflation" is not a favorable environment for the bond market. Last year, in response to the epidemic, the liquidity of major economies in the world was relatively loose. This liquidity easing has gradually returned to normal policy and even marginal tightening this year, which is also unfavorable to the bond market in the short term. However, the risk assets increased greatly last year. It is not ruled out that the two markets will switch at some time in the future, and the bond market will usher in a better allocation opportunity. 202 1 The bond market is not excluded in the second half of the year.

Can bond funds be bought in the second quarter?

After the Spring Festival, the domestic bond market is relatively stable. Since March, the central bank's currency has remained stable, and the overall funds are stable, which is good for the bond market. On the other hand, combined with historical experience, investors often enter the market before the economic growth rate peaks and falls back, so the interest rate inflection point usually appears before the economic inflection point. At present, the central bank's monetary policy regulation pays attention to structure, and the application of aggregate policy is conservative. Looking ahead to April, the market liquidity pressure is moderate. The bond research team of CITIC Securities said that the bond market has warmed up, and the top of the 10-year bond interest rate has been made clear, and the subsequent bond interest rate is expected to continue the downward process.

The parallelogram law in investment tells us that in the investment market, the correlation between stocks and bonds is low. Although this is only a theoretical statement, there have been several times in history when stocks and bonds went up and down together. But in the long run, modern modern portfolio theory can really help us to seek relatively high returns with relatively low risks. The allocation of bond assets in the portfolio can appropriately reduce the volatility of the overall portfolio. At the same time, bond funds can effectively meet the short-and medium-term financial needs.

How to choose bond funds

Choosing a debt base depends first on the team behind the product. Because bond investment should not only track enterprises, but also study macroeconomics. Secondly, many bond funds are actively managed products, and the investment and research ability of fund managers is very important, especially in the long run, there will be a big gap in income. Investors are advised to choose fund managers with large assets under management, long investment years and long-term stable product performance.

Then, with the selected company and team, you can comprehensively consider the specific product types that need to be purchased according to your risk preferences and liquidity needs.

Bond funds are divided into pure debt funds, primary debt bases and secondary debt bases. Pure debt fund 100% invested in bonds; The primary debt base must satisfy that ≥80% of assets are invested in bonds, and ≤20% of assets only participate in convertible bonds and cannot directly participate in stock investment; Secondary debt base: ≥80% of assets must be invested in bonds, and ≤20% of assets can participate in convertible bonds+stock investment.

On the whole, the income and risk of secondary debt base are greater than that of pure debt fund; The income and risk of credit bond funds are greater than that of interest rate bond funds; The benefits and risks of active bond funds are greater than those of bond index funds.

Short-term debt funds are suitable for investing at least 1 month unused money and can withstand small fluctuations; Medium-and long-term pure debt funds and primary debt bases are suitable for investment with money that has not been used for at least three months, and can withstand the fluctuations of the bond market itself; The secondary debt base is suitable for investing money that has not been used for at least half a year, and can withstand a small part of fluctuations from the stock market, expecting to obtain relatively high-yield funds.

At present, the stock market is changing, and diversification of investment is indispensable. Rational allocation of personal assets and optimization of investment structure, I believe there will be good gains in the volatile market ~

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