At present, the general expectation in the market is that the sales of personal insurance will be at a low point for a long time. One reason is that it is difficult to increase the number of agents significantly due to the sea of people tactics of increasing and disengaging greatly, and the other reason is that Internet insurance and insurance agencies continue to impact individual insurance channels.

Behind the price collapse of insurance stocks: plump ideal and skinny reality

Low valuation, low increase and high dividend, insurance stocks, together with banking stocks and real estate stocks, are called "three fools". In 22, due to the epidemic, the performance of listed insurance companies was generally under pressure, but considering that the market development potential is still huge, insurance stocks are still favored by value investors.

Behind the collapse of the insurance fundamentals: the underlying logic of the insurance industry has undergone subversive changes.

The fundamentals seriously deviated from expectations, and A-share insurance stocks became the hardest hit in 221. While analyzing the reasons that affect the fundamentals, in addition to the rapid decline of the new single standard insurance mentioned above, it should also be noted that the basic factors that affect the development of the insurance industry have been completely changed, and the underlying logic of the development of the insurance industry has also changed, and these are the fundamental factors that affect the current and future trends of the stock price of insurance stocks.

in the short term, the implementation of the new regulations such as the second-generation and second-phase compensation project and "double-recording" will still have a direct impact on the development of the industry. The impact of inclusive products on the low-end customer market has already formed, and the market opportunities for high-end customers still exist, but it is not an overnight achievement to train elite agents; In the long run, the change of population age structure and the decline of demographic dividend will affect the development of the industry in a longer-term dimension.

inclusive product shock: the logic of the low-end market in the insurance industry has been completely changed

Why do insurance stocks keep falling

Financial stocks are mainly composed of three sectors, namely securities stocks, insurance stocks and banking stocks. It can be said that these three sectors are related in themselves, and they can be said to rise and fall together.

In the second quarter of this year, Public Offering of Fund significantly reduced its insurance shares, which attracted market attention. However, compared with Public Offering of Fund, brokers have reduced their holdings of insurance stocks even more. The growth rate of premium is one of the important indicators for the capital market to observe the growth of insurance industry. Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of premiums has continued to be sluggish, which has hit investor confidence. Since the beginning of this year, due to the downturn in the fundamentals of the insurance industry, the share price and market value of insurance stocks have declined simultaneously. As of the close of August 11th, the A-share prices of the five listed insurance companies have all fallen by more than 2% this year. Compared with the total market value on December 31, 22, the total market value of the five listed A-share insurance companies has shrunk by more than one trillion yuan.

There are obvious signs of capital withdrawal

By the end of the second quarter of this year, the market value of public offering positions of the top five A-share listed insurance companies had reached a new low since 217. Relevant statistics show that at the end of last year, * * * had more than 4, Public Offering of Fund products holding insurance shares, and by the end of the second quarter of this year, there were less than 8 fund products holding insurance shares.

Analysis of the development prospect of insurance industry in p>221

From the general trend, economic transformation can not be separated from the centralized management of long-term funds, and residents' demand for pension, financial management and medical care can not be separated from life insurance and health insurance industries. Therefore, we are optimistic about the long-term growth space of life insurance and health insurance industries. With the further promotion of market standardization and the further improvement of the quantity and quality of market participants, the whole insurance market in China will still have a period of rapid development for ten to twenty years in the future, so that the insurance depth of the market will gradually be in line with the market level of developed countries. With the gradual deepening of supply-side channel transformation, technology empowerment and industrial synergy in the future, it is expected that the valuation of the insurance industry will usher in an inflection point after six months to one year.