Near the National Day holiday, reverse repurchase continues to increase. On September 28th, the central bank announced that in order to keep the liquidity stable at the end of the quarter, the reverse repurchase operation of RMB 654.38+000 billion and RMB 6543.8+04 days was carried out by interest rate bidding on that day, and the winning bid rate was 2.35%, which was the same as that of the previous period.
This is the eighth consecutive trading day that the central bank has conducted 14-day reverse repurchase operation, and the operation volume has also remained at 1000 billion. Considering that there was no reverse repurchase due on the 28th, the net investment on that day was 654.38 billion yuan. According to industry insiders interviewed by CBN, the recent heavy volume of reverse repurchase operations is mainly due to the increasing demand of institutions for inter-festival funds, and the central bank has made a net investment to protect the funds and ensure the stability of market liquidity.
With the continuous operation of 14-day reverse repurchase, there is a view in the market that if the operation scale continues to increase, the possibility of RRR reduction in the fourth quarter will be reduced accordingly. In this regard, some insiders hold different views. The consideration is that according to the contents of the third quarter monetary policy meeting released by the central bank a few days ago, it may mean that the marginal credit supply process is about to start. Based on this, it is expected that the central bank may implement another comprehensive RRR interest rate cut in the fourth quarter to help the credit expansion process. Another investment manager told reporters that 10 is the key observation window.
Reverse repurchase operations continue to be heavy.
Since the beginning of the year, the reverse repurchase operation of the central bank has kept a small rolling trend, mainly lasting for 7 days, usually around 654.38+0 billion yuan, with a minimum of 2 billion yuan. Recently, however, the central bank's reverse repurchase operation style has changed.
"It can indeed be seen that the amount of reverse repurchase operations has increased recently, and the central bank has restarted 14-day reverse repurchase simultaneously, mainly to stabilize the fluctuation of funds at the end of the quarter." Li Yuanyuan, director of fixed income of HSBC Jintrust Fund, said in an interview with CBN.
This round of 14-day reverse repurchase restart started in September 17, five months after the last operation17. 17, the central bank announced that in order to keep the liquidity stable at the end of the quarter, 50 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation and 50 billion yuan 14-day reverse repurchase operation were launched on the same day, and the winning bid rates were 2.20% and 2.35% respectively.
Subsequently, on 28th, 22nd and 23rd of 14, the central bank continued to carry out the "7 14" reverse repurchase operation, in which the operation volume of 18 on 28th was the same as that of 17 on 7th, but increased on 22nd, and/kl.
On the 24th, the central bank suspended the reverse repurchase operation for 7 days, and only carried out the reverse repurchase for 14 days on the same day, with the operation amount of12 billion yuan. Since then, reverse repurchase operations of 654.38 billion yuan and 654.38+04 days have been continuously carried out on 26th, 27th and 28th.
Based on this calculation, the central bank has carried out 14 days reverse repurchase operation for eight consecutive working days since June 28. In the meantime, the 7-day reverse repurchase and 14-day reverse repurchase totaled 860 billion yuan, and the maturity amount was150 billion yuan. After hedging the maturity scale, the net investment is 7 1000 billion yuan, but the operating interest rates of both have not changed.
Zhou, an analyst at China Everbright Bank, told CBN that the market interest rate has increased recently, especially the weighted interest rate of 7-day and 14-day pledged repo has increased significantly, reflecting the growing demand of institutions for inter-festival funds. "The central bank moderately increased 14-day reverse repurchase operation to achieve net investment, protect funds and ensure stable market liquidity."
Recent data show that despite the recent increase in liquidity, the interest rate of funds is still tightening. On September 28th, Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate) rose across the board, with overnight varieties rising by 23.8BP to 1.946% and 7-day period rising by 13. 1BP to 2.10/5%./
As for the inter-bank pledged repo rate, as of the close of 28th, the weighted average interest rate of DR00 1 closed at 1.9 107%, up by18.72bp; From the day before; The weighted average interest rate of liquidity "official indicator" DR007 closed at 2. 1889%, up 26.57BP from the previous day.
"Before the long holiday, the term of reverse repurchase is lengthened and the amount is increased, which is a routine operation, mainly to cut the peak before the holiday (to avoid the shortage of funds before the holiday and excessively push up the market interest rate) and Pinggu after the holiday (after the holiday, the market funds return to the banking system on a large scale, and the expiration of reverse repurchase funds helps to avoid a sharp decline in market interest rates)." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst of Oriental Jincheng, told reporters.
Generally speaking, institutions often face regulatory assessment at the end of the quarter, such as market liquidity indicators and generalized credit assessment indicators, which leads to a generally low willingness of institutions to borrow funds; At the same time, in order to meet the requirements of generalized credit evaluation, some banks will compress some relatively liquid assets, which will also put some pressure on market liquidity; In addition, the cautious attitude of institutions towards cross-season funds has also pushed up the market interest rate to some extent. "Therefore, it is very important for the central bank to stabilize the market and effectively manage market expectations." Zhou said to him.
The market has different views on RRR's interest rate cut.
In fact, this is not the first time that the central bank has continuously conducted 14-day reverse repurchase operations in the early days of the National Day. There were similar operations last year and 20 19.
Specifically, last year, the central bank started the 14-day reverse repurchase operation on September 18, which lasted until the 30th. During this period, the cumulative net investment of 7-day reverse repurchase and 14-day reverse repurchase was 370 billion yuan. On September 20 19 19, the central bank initiated 14-day reverse repurchase, which lasted until the 30th. During the period, the cumulative net investment of 7-day reverse repurchase and 14-day reverse repurchase was 290 billion yuan.
In terms of volume, the net amount of reverse repurchase this year is higher than that of the previous two years. In this regard, Liu Yu, chief analyst of fixed income of GF Securities, told reporters that the central bank's net reverse repurchase volume was large for two consecutive weeks, which effectively hedged the funding gap brought about by the issuance of government bonds, met the inter-season capital demand and was expected to stabilize the inter-season.
"However, it should be noted that this has also caused the reverse repurchase stock to rise to the highest level since mid-February, close to the stock level on the eve of the Spring Festival holiday. The amount of reverse repurchase due after 10 is relatively large. " Liu Yu said.
With a large number of reverse repurchase operations, the market's expectation of RRR interest rate cuts in the fourth quarter has also changed. "Some insiders worry that if the net scale of reverse repurchase continues to expand, the possibility of RRR reduction in the fourth quarter will be reduced." Li Yuanyuan told reporters.
Ping An Securities Research Report also mentioned that the Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) due in September has been extended by equal amount. If the reverse repurchase scale in the middle and late period 14 days is obviously heavy (for example, it is obviously higher than 500 billion), then the possibility of RRR reduction in the fourth quarter will be reduced accordingly.
Zhou further told CBN that from the domestic macro environment, the threshold for reducing holdings in the fourth quarter is not low. In the third quarter, affected by short-term and external factors, the domestic economic growth slowed down, but it was generally in a state of recovery; The monetary and credit environment remains reasonable and moderate; At the same time, recent operations show that the central bank relies more on structural policy tools to make precise adjustments and improve policy quality and efficiency; In order to cope with the short-term capital disturbance, the central bank has a wealth of policy tools.
However, there are also views that hold different views. Wang Qing said that 14-day reverse repurchase operation is a short-term liquidity injection, which is often used to deal with timely peak-cutting Pinggu; RRR interest rate cut is to inject long-term funds into the banking system, mainly to solve the liquidity bottleneck of bank credit.
In addition, at the regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee in the third quarter held by the central bank on September 24, the statement of "enhancing the stability of credit growth" was added to the communique of the meeting. Wang Qing said that the emphasis on "enhancing the stability of credit growth" in the context of the continuous tightening of credit in the early stage means that the current growth rate of credit and social financing has basically bottomed out, with a slight rebound in the fourth quarter, and the process of marginal wide credit is about to begin. This is the basis for stabilizing economic operation at the end of this year and early next year.
Therefore, "we expect that in the fourth quarter, the central bank will launch structural policy tools such as green refinancing, and it is possible to implement a comprehensive RRR cut to help the credit process." Wang Qing told reporters that it is expected that the funds will continue to be in a reasonable and abundant state in the fourth quarter, and it is unlikely that the market interest rate will further decline sharply. In the future, it is more likely to combine stable currency with wide credit, taking into account risk prevention and steady growth.
Li Yuanyuan also told reporters that from the liquidity gap in the fourth quarter, it is estimated that the maturity scale of MLF and the issuance scale of local debt are around 4 trillion, so the market's expectation of the central bank's RRR cut is still relatively high; On the other hand, the current PPI remains high, and the scissors difference with CPI reaches the historical maximum, reflecting the risk of "stagflation-like" in economic operation. "It can be said that both sides of the market are expected to be more glued, and 10 may be a more critical observation window."