The stock is falling, will the fund also fall?
Funds are mainly stock funds, so the operation of the stock market determines the fate of most funds. Although 16 rose slightly by 5 points after continuous oversold, showing signs of slowing down the decline, the trend of 17 is still a word "weak" in terms of volume and strength of the disk. If the market outlook continues to fluctuate sideways for two consecutive trading days and no large funds break through the suppression level, then we should pay attention to the risks. Near the suppression of the moving average, it may break the bottom again. Please strictly control the position not to be too heavy. ) Weak investor confidence makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although today's bargain-hunting funds try to change this downward trend, the situation is not very optimistic. The current stock market is not as lacking in confidence and funds as the government said. Personally, in the shadow of size and size, both are lacking. This year is the lightest year in size. The funds for lifting the ban are only 3 trillion yuan, but it has already overwhelmed the main funds in the market (before the main funds began to ship, the main funds in the market were only 3 trillion yuan, but the scale was not enough to be eliminated). Although the government came to a fund to talk about politics, it seems that the substantive effect is not great. Organizations continue to rebound and ship, so they have to choose the strategy of retreating to reduce losses. Even before the Olympic Games, the government made so-called positive measures to stop the stock market from falling further, but as long as it is not a substantive solution to the problem of size, it is only a perfunctory policy, then in the current market where the long-short balance of funds has been broken, even if there is a small rebound under the trend of sideways operation or during the Olympic Games, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved. Money will continue to be tight. When there is a rebound caused by policies, it is wise to reduce rallies. Don't believe that stock reviews don't consider the actual big market. Since the non-lifting funds in 2009 were nearly 7 trillion, the lifting funds in 20 10 were nearly 10 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, it is impossible to solve the pressure of funds before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved. Any marginal favorable policy will only bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Although the stock market is complex, it is actually very simple. The rule of the stock market is that if you sell more, you will buy down, and if you buy more, you will sell up. Most people understand this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds have already been reflected? Don't believe that size also requires long-term investment. When the profit is as high as 400% or even as high as 1000% as soon as the listing is lifted, do you think the holders of the size will be safe or will continue to watch their profits shrink in a weak market (the size of the size is also an investor, and the profit first is also their idea, when long-term investors think that only retail investors with institutional education will do it) and the selling power in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest support area of the market is 3300~3400 points, and the so-called policy iron bottom with the strongest stock evaluation and institutions is 2990 points, it has collapsed rapidly in the case of unbalanced funds. Therefore, the short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if the marginal favorable policy brings bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring about a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now. Every rebound and lightening positions are rigorous. Only when you have money in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is the main force, not the retail investors. When the main force is forced to lighten up their positions under the pressure of non-size, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to follow the trend, rather than move against the trend. We should also control our positions when the institutions lighten up their positions. If you have to say what support level is below, look at around 2500. In fact, the strongest support level has fallen. Of course, if the government is willing to introduce substantive policies to solve the problem of non-size, then the resulting market will be a big market, not such a small fight. However, personally, it is not realistic. The government originally wanted the market to digest nearly 20 trillion yuan, and the government would be willing to pay for it itself. During this period, the issuance of new shares in an incredibly crazy number has not been interrupted, and the purpose of reducing stamp duty by the state is even more thought-provoking. It is not excluded that while meeting the requirements of investors by the way (the government has done enough in face), the main funds are forced to do more at the current point to pick up the size, and a large number of new funds are also borrowed from the market (the wool is on the sheep, the government has nothing, or the money of retail investors). In the case of a short-term fire, the market lured other OTC funds to intervene, and the pressure of issuing new shares was temporarily eased, killing two birds with one stone. If some non-substantial favorable policies are introduced in the market outlook, it is not ruled out that it is still for new shares rather than investors. The previous bear market was caused by the reduction of state-owned shares. As a result of the reduction of stamp duty in the bear market in 2005, after a certain increase, the main force shipped again, and the market oscillated to the bottom again, hitting a new low. The present situation is somewhat similar to that at that time, so you can refer to it carefully. But in a weak state, a small negative news may be magnified several times because of panic. For the retail friends who have been involved, please keep a vigilant attitude and pay attention to whether there is good news at any time. Now, you should follow the trend, don't be a dead cow, don't be a dead bear, just be a prick. Before the market has no choice of direction, strictly controlling your position will minimize your risk. It is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully. good luck