1, steel:

It is a double-edged sword with more advantages than disadvantages for the steel industry: the central bank has reformed the quotation mechanism of RMB middle price, and the RMB exchange rate has a great influence on the steel industry in terms of quantity, that is, foreign ore imports and steel exports.

First of all, the depreciation of RMB is not conducive to steel enterprises to import foreign mines, but domestic steel enterprises are as dependent on foreign mines as high as 60%, which cannot be shaken in the short term. According to our preliminary estimation, for every RMB depreciation of 1%, it will cost1800 million yuan to import foreign minerals in the second half of the year.

In terms of steel exports, the export in the first half of the year was about 50 million tons, accounting for 9.37%. The depreciation of RMB will be more conducive to the export of steel products, and the annual export ratio may reach 10%. According to our preliminary calculation, for every RMB depreciation 1%, the exchange gains and losses of exported steel will increase by 2.2 billion yuan in the second half of the year. In addition, it will also promote the indirect export of downstream industries such as machinery.

Suggestions on specific targets are focused on baoshan iron & steel, Benxi Steel and Angang Steel. In 20 14, the export income of the three companies accounted for 2 1%, 27% and 15% respectively. Among them, 50% of the iron ore of Benxi Steel is supplied by Benxi Steel Group, and the import of foreign ore is less affected. In addition, Fangda Carbon, the leader of new carbon materials, is also worthy of attention. Fangda Carbon's export revenue in 20 14 accounted for nearly 30%, ranking first in Gansu Province for many years.

2, non-ferrous metals:

Short-term repairs can't solve long-term worries. As the central parity of the RMB exchange rate has fallen sharply in the short term, we judge the short-term, medium-term and long-term trends from the cost side and the price side:

1. Short-term bulk resource varieties will rebound due to the influence of internal and external price difference.

2. The persistence of the mid-term rise mainly depends on the extent to which the domestic stable growth exceeds expectations.

3. In the long run, under the premise of sluggish demand in emerging markets around the world, the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate means further weakening the supporting role of the cost side on prices, creating new space for the price decline of industrial metals and simple processed products, and bringing negative impacts.

From the perspective of stock selection, we tend to choose: 1. The cost is at home, benefiting from the downward adjustment of exchange rate; 2 products have certain pricing power and comparative advantages, or industries that are less affected by the investment cycle.

From the perspective of resource products, gold, as a globally priced product, has little correlation with the investment demand of domestic and emerging markets; Moreover, most of the gold mines of gold companies come from their own or domestic mines, and the profit margin of exchange rate reduction and expansion is expected to be maintained. Under the background that the Fed's interest rate hike has not yet landed, there are trading investment opportunities, so it is suggested to pay attention to Shandong Gold and Hengbang shares. The risk comes from the suppression of international gold prices by the Fed's interest rate hike.

From the point of view of processed products, it is suggested to pay attention to the magnetic material industry represented by sintered NdFeB. The cost side mainly comes from domestic rare earth resources and benefits from the downward adjustment of exchange rate. The comparative advantage of domestic processing and production of sintered NdFeB is obvious, and the demand of downstream new energy industry is relatively stable. It is suggested to pay attention to the magnetic materials of Zhongke Sanhuan and Zhenghai. The risk comes from the shrinking sales volume caused by the economic downturn in emerging markets in the medium term.

3. Travel:

We believe that the adjustment of RMB exchange rate will change the fluctuation direction of China's outbound travel market in the short and medium term, but the general trend of its growth is determined by China's rising per capita income level and the tendency of being insensitive to price elasticity. In the long run, China's outbound travel market is still promising.

1. At present, the depreciation of RMB is mainly against the US dollar, while the income from Zhongxin Tourism and Easy Food in Europe is relatively high, accounting for about 60% and 50% respectively, so the impact will not be too great.

2. Most products purchased by the travel agency industry are late payment, and the period from finalizing the purchase cost price (foreign currency) with suppliers to payment is about 2-3 months. Therefore, when setting the sales price of outbound travel products, the risk of RMB depreciation has always been taken into account, which will not have a great impact on the company's gross profit margin.

3. If the depreciation of RMB causes the stock price of outbound travel agencies to panic, it is suggested to take the opportunity to bargain-hunting.

4. Machinery:

The depreciation of RMB conforms to the national "going out" strategy and export-oriented sub-industries, and we are optimistic about the core parts enterprises with import substitution ability. This is not good for sub-sectors that mainly rely on foreign procurement of raw materials and equipment.

Favorable industries recommended by the national "going out" strategy: railway equipment and nuclear power equipment. Driven by the national "going global" strategy, high-speed rail and nuclear power equipment have become the business cards of equipment manufacturing in China: 1) Railway equipment industry: export is favorable, and import substitution of core components is accelerated. Good for China high-speed rail and Ding Han science and technology. 2) Nuclear Power Equipment: Recently, the approval progress of nuclear power projects has been accelerated, which is beneficial to Danfu and Liu Ying.

We are optimistic about the export-oriented ship container and hand tool industry.

China exports mainly textiles, household appliances and other products. If the export volume increases, the demand for raw materials such as steel and petrochemical products will also increase, thus enhancing the prosperity of the dry bulk market and driving the demand for containers. It is good for CIMC.

We are optimistic about the core component enterprises with import substitution ability. The export of construction machinery industry accounts for about 20%, but 30% of core parts are imported. After the positive and negative offsets, the depreciation of RMB has little flexibility on the performance of the whole machine enterprises in the construction machinery industry. Due to the depreciation of RMB, in order to reduce costs, automakers will be more inclined to purchase domestic core components with core technologies, which will be beneficial to Hengli cylinders.