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From: Network Date: May 18, 222

This article was transferred from: Securities Times

On February 18, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose sharply, once breaking through the 6.32 mark, hitting a four-year high of 6.3144, the highest point since May 218.

Due to the contrary monetary policies of China and the United States and other factors, the trend of RMB has not weakened, but has become stronger. In addition to benefiting from the large increase in the surplus of foreign exchange settlement and sales brought about by the increase in the surplus of trade in goods and direct investment since last year, it is also very important for RMB assets to attract foreign capital to continue to flow in beyond market expectations.

In terms of market expectation, domestic analysts have some doubts about whether the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates many times can be truly fulfilled. Superimposed on the differences in fundamental cycles between China and the United States, the tightening in the United States is not "tight", while China's steady growth measure, LPR, lowers the RMB, but appreciates it.

Offshore RMB is stronger than onshore RMB

In January, the US dollar index first fell and then rose. The onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar continued to appreciate before January 26th, and it closed at 6.32, the highest since May 218. However, at the end of the month, it declined due to the unexpected hawks of the Federal Reserve and the rapid rise of the US dollar. On January 27th, the onshore RMB exchange rate fell sharply, with the largest depreciation rate in six months.

However, when the market opened in the Year of the Tiger, the strong trend of RMB returned again. The offshore RMB exchange rate is in the lead, and the onshore RMB exchange rate is closely followed, which shows that the trend of RMB has not weakened, but has become stronger due to factors such as China's and the United States' monetary policies.

On February 18th, the exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar rose sharply, once breaking the 6.32 mark before the Spring Festival, hitting a new high of 6.3144, the highest since May 218.

The onshore RMB exchange rate once reached 6.3238, but it still did not break through the high point on January 26th. The central parity of the people's exchange rate, quoted at 6.3343, also did not break through the high point on January 26.

since the second half of last year, under the influence of the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the domestic foreign exchange market has gone out of a wave of independent market with stronger US dollar and stronger RMB. Even in the context of repeated RRR cuts and interest rate cuts in China and the continuous narrowing of the spread between China and the United States, the RMB exchange rate has remained firm. The CFETS RMB exchange rate index, which measures the exchange rate of RMB against a basket of currencies, began to fluctuate upward from 91.42 at the end of July 22 and reached a high of 13.43 at the end of January this year.

should we still worry about devaluation? The tightening in the United States is not "tight"

It is worth noting that domestic analysts have some doubts about whether the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates many times can really be fulfilled. Superimposed on the differences in fundamental cycles between China and the United States, the tightening in the United States is not "tight", while the relaxation in China is not so loose.

"For the whole year of 222, we expect that the Fed's interest rate hike may be less than expected, and the US dollar index will return to the downtrend channel and drop to 9 during the year. As the US dollar turns head down, China's economic fundamentals are relatively strong, maintaining the judgment that the RMB exchange rate will appreciate to 6.1 in the second half of the year." Li Chao, chief economist of Zheshang Securities, judged.

Li Chao also stressed that the tightening of Fed policy will not affect the loose pace of China's monetary policy. In the medium and long term, the long-term trend of RMB against the US dollar is closely related to the US dollar cycle, which is determined by the comparison of production factors in the United States and emerging markets. China's labor factors have a slight advantage over the US's science and technology and capital factors, which determines the gradual appreciation trend of RMB against the US dollar in the medium and long term. It is expected that RMB will appreciate against the US dollar for about 8 years.

Zhongtai Securities analyst Chen Xing believes that since the second half of last year, especially since the fourth quarter, the tone of the Fed's monetary policy has gradually switched to hawks. However, it should be noted that although the Fed has expressed a tightening policy attitude, the dollar liquidity in the market is still quite abundant. On the other hand, in China, although we have implemented monetary easing operations such as continuous RRR cuts and interest rate cuts, the changes in funds in the market are relatively stable, and the degree of monetary easing is actually limited. Therefore, the tightening of the Federal Reserve in the second half of last year was not "tight", and China's relaxation was not so "loose". However, this year, this situation is likely to change, and the exchange rate trend of RMB against the US dollar will eventually move closer to the US dollar index, which corresponds to the depreciation pressure of RMB.

Yi Jiao, chief macroeconomist of Huatai Securities, believes that the real interest rate of US debt has risen rapidly since 222, and the "pan-tech" sector with the largest cumulative inflow in the United States but the most sensitive valuation to interest rates has fallen sharply, and funds have been rapidly withdrawn from US stocks. From the order of magnitude, an extremely rare phenomenon in history is that the speed of withdrawing funds from the US stock market is enough to explain the serious deviation between the US dollar interest rate and the exchange rate.

Yi Jiao believes that the real exchange rate of RMB has been "devalued internally" since 221 due to the significantly lower relative inflation (including commodity and asset price inflation) in China. Even at the fundamental level, there may be no need to devalue the nominal exchange rate.

Yi Guo predicted that in 222, the CPI of the United States may still be significantly higher than that of China, which will drive the real exchange rate of RMB to depreciate, but will continue to release the pressure of RMB nominal exchange rate depreciation. Looking ahead, steady growth and stable exchange rate may not necessarily conflict. If China's steady growth policy is put in place later than expected, the fluctuation of China's financial assets and the related risk premium rise, and the capital flow turns, the RMB may have depreciation pressure instead, which also explains why LPR lowers the RMB but appreciates it.

RMB bonds held by foreign investors have been rising for 38 consecutive months

According to the latest data of SWIFT, in January this year, the global payment ranking of RMB remained the fourth in the world, and its proportion rose from 2.7% in December last year to 3.2%, a record high. The proportion of RMB in global payments has further increased, which is basically consistent with China's high foreign trade prosperity and the continuous inflow of RMB assets to attract foreign investment.

at the beginning of the new year, the enthusiasm of foreign investors to increase their holdings of RMB bonds has increased. According to the latest data released by the Central Clearing Company, at the end of January 222, the face value of bonds held by overseas institutions in the Central Clearing Company increased by 5.71 billion yuan to 3.73 trillion yuan, which has been rising for 38 consecutive months. Among them, the amount of treasury bonds entrusted by overseas institutions increased by 65.7 billion yuan, and the accumulated holding of treasury bonds was 2.52 trillion yuan.

In addition, the briefing issued by Shanghai Headquarters of the People's Bank of China recently showed that by the end of January 222, overseas institutions held 4.7 trillion yuan of bonds in the interbank market, accounting for about 3.5% of the total custody of the interbank bond market. From the perspective of the types of bonds, the main type of bonds entrusted by overseas institutions is national debt, with a custody amount of 2.52 trillion yuan, accounting for 61.9%; Followed by policy financial bonds, the amount of custody was 1.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 26.6%.

according to the data of foreign exchange trading center, in January 222, foreign institutional investors bought 141.3 billion yuan in bonds, including 783.2 billion yuan in bonds and 641.9 billion yuan in bonds.

In January, more foreign institutional investors participated in the China bond market. The data shows that as of the end of January 222, 58 overseas institutional investors entered the market through the settlement agency model, and one was added in January; 734 overseas institutional investors entered the market through the bond-pass mode, with 7 new investors in January. In addition, foreign institutional investors became more active in the China bond market in January, and foreign institutional investors * * * reached 1,425.1 billion yuan in cash transactions, up 53% from the previous month.

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