The leading position of crude oil theme fund changed hands before. As in the past three years, Public Offering of Fund once again swept the top three performance of all market funds.
At the same time, due to the lack of past historical performance, many new funds just established this year rushed into the forefront in the first three quarters. The reporter combed and found that heavy positions in cyclical stocks such as coal and energy have become one of the reasons for the top performance of most active equity funds.
Leading funds change hands.
Crude oil theme fund "triumphed" at the beginning of the year, and fell back in July and September. After the end of the third quarter, the leading position of the crude oil theme fund was replaced by someone else.
Previously, the crude oil theme fund was ranked first in the fund performance list during the year, and its performance at the end of several months was ahead of the whole market fund.
List of leading performance funds at the end of each month in 2022
The data shows that as of September 30, among all market funds, Wanjia Macro Timing Strategy, Wanjia Xinli and Wanjia Select A managed by Wanjia Fund Manager Huang Hai have taken the top three performances in the first three quarters of the whole market; The output reached 68.46%, 665, 438+0.92% and 53.77% respectively.
TOP20 (performance of all-market funds in the first three quarters (merger of A and C shares)
Specifically, the crude oil theme fund still performed well. Among the 18 funds with a yield of more than 30% in the first three quarters, except for the three active equity funds managed by Huanghai, the rest are QDII or ETF funds with crude oil and coal themes, among which the crude oil theme fund occupies 9 seats.
Key to excellent performance of heavy coal
Judging from the performance list of active equity funds, the three funds managed by Huanghai have almost taken the lead in obtaining fault advantages this year.
As of September 30th, there are 8 active equity funds with a yield of over 20%(A and C shares combined) and 3 with a yield of over 50% this year.
In addition, in the performance list of active equity funds in the first three months, the new funds established this year strongly occupy the vast majority of seats in the forefront of the list.
The top 20 active equity funds in the first three quarters (A and C share merger)
The three "Wanjia" funds managed by the Yellow Sea have led the active equity funds in the whole market for several months since this year. Judging from the data of heavy stocks at the end of the second quarter, these three funds have heavy positions in real estate stocks and coal stocks. For example, at the end of the second quarter, the top ten stocks in the market were Poly Development, Shaanxi Coal, China Coal Energy, Shanxi Coking Coal, Jindi, Huaibei Mining, Lu 'an Huaneng, Jinkong Coal, Yankuang Energy and Xincheng Holding.
In addition, a number of coal and traditional energy stocks have appeared in the latest heavyweight stocks of active equity funds, such as the theme of state-owned enterprise reform of Ying Da University, steady balance of investment promotion A, and new blue chip C of China Construction Bank. At the same time, due to the market volatility, the performance of many new energy theme funds with top performance declined.
A fund manager told reporters that since the third quarter, US bond yields, geopolitics and other factors have become the main factors affecting the market. The yield of US bonds is the opportunity cost of global assets, and the rising yield of US bonds brings about the repricing of global assets. Geopolitics and other factors increase the uncertainty of global macro-environment, thus amplifying fluctuations. In this context, domestic demand-driven sectors such as real estate and coal are relatively strong, while industries such as new energy and technology are relatively damaged.
Optimistic about the market in the fourth quarter
In the long run, the overall performance of active equity funds is still bright. The data shows that as of September 30th, the net growth rate of 706 funds (A and C shares are not combined) in the past three years exceeded 100%, and the net growth rate of 16 funds exceeded 200%. Judging from the performance in the past five years, even after many market corrections, there are still 345 funds whose net growth rate exceeds 100%, and 19 funds whose net growth rate exceeds 200%.
Looking forward to the market outlook, Vivienne Liu, the fund manager of China Europe Fund, believes that with the gradual implementation of monetary policy, fiscal policy and industrial policy, market confidence will be enhanced and trading sentiment will rebound. The current market is not short of liquidity. We are optimistic about the A-share market in the fourth quarter, and the stock market can be repaired at any time.
According to the forecast of Yin Hua Fund, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year, there will be a high probability of buying in the next 1-2 years. At present, it is in the middle and late period of all-A profit downturn, and the overall environment is high inventory, bottom profit, wide currency and weak credit. The slope of credit repair will determine the inflection point of profit. In terms of style judgment, in a quarter, the market and value style have a greater probability of winning. Looking forward to 2023, we will still see the growth of small and medium-sized stocks.
"The price comparison of the two main assets, stocks and bonds, shows that the stock market is in an undervalued position in history. In the medium term, we believe that the market will rebound after a high probability of bottoming out. " Liu Bin, the investment director of harvest fund Enhanced Style, told the reporter that it is suggested to keep a balance in the current allocation style and look for opportunities in different styles of stocks. In terms of value style, we are optimistic about some real estate stocks and cyclical stocks with low valuation and bottoming out. In terms of growth style, we are optimistic about semiconductor equipment, materials and components, military industry and new ventures that benefit from geopolitical and industrial chain environment changes.
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