Judging from the impact, the collapse of international energy prices has a great impact on the economies of Middle Eastern countries.
The blow is the biggest, especially to the Gulf countries. In July 2008, after the international oil price soared to 147 USD, it plummeted and once bottomed out to around 30 USD, which caused heavy losses to oil-producing countries in the Middle East. On the one hand, the oil price has been running at a low level below $70 for a long time, on the other hand, the major western oil consuming countries have been affected by the financial crisis, and the vast number of oil producing countries in the Middle East have to face the double blow of "falling volume and price". A report of the Gulf Cooperation Council predicts that if the oil price is maintained at around $40, the oil and gas exports of the Gulf countries in 2009 will be reduced by 60% compared with 2008, the total oil revenue will be reduced from $5 18 billion in 2008 to $3 10 billion, and the national finance will turn from surplus to huge deficit. Therefore, the central banks in the Middle East have successively lowered the economic growth rate in 2009, from 7.5% in 2008 to 3. 1%, Bahrain to 3%, Qatar to 7%-9% and Oman to 1%-3%.
While oil revenues have shrunk dramatically, Middle Eastern countries have also suffered heavy losses in overseas markets, especially in European and American financial markets. From September last year to 65438+February, the asset value invested by sovereign funds and financial reserves in Arab countries shrank by about 30%-50%. According to the research report of the Federal Reserve, the international financial crisis caused the Gulf countries to lose $355 billion in foreign assets in 2008, among which the sovereign wealth funds of Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar suffered the largest losses, down by about 40%. For example, Bahrain's sovereign wealth fund lost 10%-15% of its total investment of $0/0 billion; The losses of Kuwait's sovereign wealth funds are as high as $3 1 billion. Gulf Bank, the second largest commercial bank in Kuwait, suffered heavy losses in overseas financial derivatives transactions, and depositors once ran on banks. Due to the reduction of fiscal surplus, the foreign investment of Gulf countries is expected to drop from 307.6 billion dollars in 2008 to 56 billion dollars in 2009.
Stock markets in the Middle East countries have not been spared. According to the statistics of the Arab Monetary Fund, by the end of 2008, the total market value of seven stock markets in the Gulf countries was 600 billion US dollars, which was 51.16 trillion US dollars compared with the same period in 2007, with a loss of 51600 million US dollars. Among them, the Dubai stock market fell by 72.4% and the Saudi stock market fell by 56.5%; Abu Dhabi stock market fell 47.5%.
At the same time, developed countries have been greatly affected by the financial crisis, and their economic assistance to Middle East countries has also been forced to decrease. In order to make up for the losses, many European and American multinational companies gradually withdraw their capital from overseas markets, which is also "bad news" for Middle Eastern countries that are more dependent on foreign capital. In addition, the financial crisis has also led to a decrease in European and American tourists, which has caused losses to the tourism industry in Egypt, Turkey, Jordan and other countries.
Faced with the severe economic situation, governments in the Middle East have also taken active actions to alleviate the negative impact of the financial crisis.
Since February this year, the Bank of Egypt has cut interest rates five times in a row, with a cumulative interest rate cut of 300 basis points. The Central Bank of Saudi Arabia injected 2.7 billion US dollars into the Saudi credit market, and the Central Bank of Saudi Arabia cut interest rates four times to ease the liquidity difficulties of the domestic financial system. The Saudi government has also put forward a plan to invest $400 billion in infrastructure construction in the next five years. Last year, the UAE central bank injected $32.7 billion into the financial system in two batches and nationalized two mortgage companies. The central government of the United Arab Emirates also promised to provide guarantees for all deposits in China for up to three years to enhance market confidence. Kuwait has set up an emergency team to stabilize the economy and formulated an economic stimulus plan with a total amount of $5 billion to prevent the national economy from falling into recession.